Brent FV Analysis - 5th Feb
My machine driven prediction for 5th Feb suggest that based on my selected fundamentally driven factors (oil/demand related), front brent futures is about 68.30 vs 67.55 settled yesterday. This contrast to my initial assumption that brent is factoring risk premium of 2-3/bbl due to Iran/other geopoilitical reasons (1st Pict).
On the other hand, CTA has been accumulating lengths over the 1 to 1.5 mths, flipping to max long positions now. Should Brent move down to about 66/bbl level, in my view we will start to see the momentum/trend driven CTA starting a wave of selling (2nd Pict).
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