To The Moon

USD The US Dollar traded unevenly, showing a softening trend against major peers like the Euro and Japanese Yen due to improved global risk sentiment. Speculative positioning has become heavily skewed toward USD selling, with gross short positions across eight IMM currency futures more than doubling to a six-month high of USD 17.4 billion. JPM economists continue to see global GDP staying resilient at 2.8%, with consumers as a key driver. GS economists anticipate a +45k headline NFP print and a 33bp core CPI reading for January, noting that January reports often provide outsized FX reactions. Nomura reported that year-ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations moved lower to 3.09%, the lowest since July 2025. Goldman Sachs traders warned that US stocks face

Fundamental factors suggested fair value at 68.49 vs settled at 69.04, at this point dont see a lot of reason to action basis this forecast.

CTA had been cutting their length in precious and base metals since start of Feb (locking in profits), with varied positioning even within precious. They are still long Gold, slightly long Silver and Palladium and close to flat on Platinum. Still long Copper and slightly long Aluminium. Close to max length on Oil and products, turning to flat on US Treasuries and going long on US 2Y.

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have demonstrated resilience, holding onto recent gains as the market balances immediate geopolitical risks against a structurally bearish medium-term outlook. Brent futures traded firmly above the $68/bbl mark, supported by a confluence of supply-side concerns and lingering diplomatic tensions. While US-Iran talks in Oman concluded with a "positive" tone, averting immediate escalation, the lack of a concrete resolution keeps a risk premium embedded in the market. Traders remain wary of potential flare-ups, particularly with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu scheduled to meet President Trump to discuss the Iranian nuclear file. On the physical front, supply tightness is evident as the aftershocks of the US "deep freeze" continue to hamper producti

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Bulls Defend "Weakest Bear Case "Bitcoin has staged a recovery, reclaiming the $70,000 psychological level after plunging to a 15-month low under $62,000 last week. The rebound is driven by a mix of institutional buying and whale accumulation. Binance bolstered its SAFU fund with a massive **$300 million Bitcoin purchase** (4,225 BTC), while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired an additional 1,142 BTC for $90 million. These corporate moves have acted as a backstop, absorbing the selling pressure that erased $500 billion from the market cap since mid-January. Analysts at Bernstein have doubled down on their bullish outlook, calling the recent sell-off the "weakest bear case on record" and reaffirming a $150,000 target for 2026. They cite tig

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Recovers Above $72,000 as Institutional Bulls Defend Long-Term Thesis Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a modest recovery, climbing back above the $72,000 mark ($72,222) after a brutal week of selling that saw prices dip below $60,000. Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction remains unshaken. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor hinted at further accumulation with his "Orange Dots Matter" post, suggesting the firm is buying the dip even as its holdings sit below cost basis with a $3.4 billion unrealized loss. Similarly, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called the sub-$70k levels a "once-in-a-lifetime" entry point, reinforcing the narrative that smart money is absorbing the panic selling. However, the market is navigating significant headwinds

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is rebounding after an initial post-FOMC sell-off, with renewed momentum driven by geopolitical jitters and a "hawkish hold" narrative gaining traction. J.P. Morgan highlights that while deleveraging was a theme last week, the USD pullback was "tamer" than expected relative to the volatility in other assets like crypto and metals. The bank has raised its targets for AUD/USD (0.73) and NZD/USD (0.63), signaling a rotation away from the US dollar and into pro-cyclical currencies, but maintains a structural short bias on EUR and GBP. Goldman Sachs argues that the dollar's high valuation is showing "wear and tear" as the US asset market cycle ages, suggesting global investors may start dialing down USD exposure. However, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fe

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices posted a modest recovery, with WTI settling above $63/bbl and Brent climbing over $68/bbl, as market participants digested the outcomes of US-Iran diplomatic talks in Oman. While the discussions ended without a concrete agreement, the dialogue was described as a "good start" and a "positive" step, helping to ease immediate fears of military escalation that had previously injected a significant risk premium into prices. However, a residual geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market as traders remain cautious about the long-term resolution of tensions, particularly given Iran's steadfast stance on nuclear enrichment. Adding to the complex geopolitical landscape, the EU announced plans for a full maritime services ban on Russian crude,

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is rebounding broadly, shaking off recent weakness as a confluence of resilient economic data and central bank divergence re-energizes the greenback. Saxo highlights a "new and broad comeback" for the USD, driven by a risk-off rotation in equities (tech sell-off) and a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan notes that despite the chaotic start to February for commodities, the divergence between rising metals and falling energy is a "healthy correction," not a turning point, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. Domestically, the labor market remains the key battleground; Nomura points out that while ADP private payrolls disappointed (22k vs 45k exp), initial jobless claims rose to 231k, partly due to winter storms, keeping the "soft

CTA had been turning short on US 10 Yr since end Nov, (max long) seemed to have been caught out by recent recovery but would say they are probably still in the money as they are far from max short positions