To The Moon

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin Erases All Post-Election Gains, Plunging to $62K Amid "Full Capitulation"

Bitcoin has officially wiped out all gains made since Donald Trump's 2024 election victory, crashing to a low of $62,200 on February 5 before stabilizing near $65,000. The collapse marks a 30% correction from its January peak, driven by a "perfect storm" of macro headwinds: dismal U.S. economic data, fears of an AI bubble burst, and intense geopolitical strain. On-chain metrics scream "capitulation," with Glassnode reporting the second-largest forced selling spike in two years. Despite the carnage, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw record daily volume of $10 billion, suggesting that while retail panics, institutions are stepping in to absorb the liquidity event.

The market mood is grim, with sentiment hitting its lowest point since the 2022 Terra collapse. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of "campaign selling," a pattern of sustained distribution that could drag prices lower. However, contrarian voices remain loud. JPMorgan strategists argue that Bitcoin is now "more attractive than gold" for long-term holders, predicting a potential rebound to $266,000. Similarly, Bitwise anticipates that this "crypto winter" is nearing its end, setting the stage for a strong recovery as the leverage flush concludes.

Key Market Drivers:

Macro Contagion: Weak U.S. economic data and a tech stock rout have triggered a "risk-off" cascade, pulling Bitcoin down with equities.

Institutional Absorption: Record $10B volume in BlackRock's IBIT proves that massive institutional capital is active, treating the crash as a liquidity event.

Capitulation Signals: Extreme fear and forced selling by short-term holders (realized losses) typically mark the final phase of a correction.

Geopolitical Hedges: While price is down, the "global arms race" for Bitcoin reserves predicted by Pantera Capital remains a long-term demand catalyst.

Supply/Demand Fundamentals:

Exchange Inflows: $4.3 billion in BTC was dumped on Binance, which absorbed nearly 80% of net selling pressure, highlighting its role as the primary liquidity venue.

Miner Stress: CleanSpark reported a $379M net loss due to fair value swings, indicating that miners are financially strained but holding on.

Options Sentiment: Options markets are pricing in stability around $65k, with low probability assigned to explosive upside in early 2026.

Corporate Pain: Strategy (MicroStrategy) shares dipped 17% as its Bitcoin holdings went underwater, testing the resolve of corporate treasuries.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum Dragged Down by Macro Tides; Sentiment Hits Rock Bottom

Ethereum is trading in lockstep with the broader market collapse, failing to find a floor as Bitcoin tumbles. While specific price targets for ETH were less prominent in today's data, the sentiment contagion is undeniable. The "Altcoin Season" narrative has effectively died for this cycle, with capital fleeing riskier L1s back to Bitcoin or stablecoins. However, Bitwise suggests that the current "winter" is a necessary reset that will eventually favor utility-driven projects like Ethereum once the dust settles.

Despite the gloom, network fundamentals continue to evolve. The focus remains on Ethereum's role in the "BTCFi" ecosystem and its interoperability with Bitcoin, which is becoming a key theme for 2026. Analysts note that while ETH is suffering now, the "capitulation" across the board is flushing out weak hands, potentially setting up a cleaner market structure for the rest of the year.

Key Market Drivers:

Correlation: ETH remains highly correlated to BTC and tech stocks, offering no safe haven during this deleveraging event.

Sentiment Lows: Crypto sentiment hitting 2022 lows indicates extreme pessimism, often a contrarian signal for a medium-term bottom.

Utility Focus: The shift from speculative "altseason" to utility-driven value (fees, services) favors Ethereum's mature ecosystem long-term.

Institutional Lag: Unlike BTC, ETH lacks a massive ETF volume narrative right now to counteract retail selling.

Supply/Demand Fundamentals:

Leverage Wipeout: Billions in liquidations across the market have reset open interest, removing the "froth" that capped upside.

Stablecoin Velocity: High stablecoin volume during the crash keeps gas fees active, burning ETH even as price drops.

Whale Hesitation: Lack of aggressive whale buying news for ETH (compared to BTC) suggests large players are waiting for better entry signals.

Alt-coins

Hyperliquid Defies Gravity While XRP and Cardano Collapse

In a sea of red, Hyperliquid (HYPE) stands out as a rare survivor, soaring 50% in two weeks and bucking the $500 billion market trend. A whale was spotted opening a **$6.3 million long** on HYPE, betting on its continued outperformance as a decentralized exchange utility token. In contrast, XRP has been obliterated, crashing 22% in a single day and 45% from its January peak. Despite this, institutional infrastructure for XRP is growing via deals like Hex Trust–Flare, and social sentiment remains surprisingly optimistic compared to BTC/ETH.

Cardano (ADA) is facing a bearish breakdown as it loses ETF ground and critical support at $0.29. The "death of altseason" narrative is hitting legacy coins hardest. Monero (XMR) also saw volatility related to the recent hack but remains a key privacy play. Memecore (M) surged 10% relative to Bitcoin, showing that niche narratives can still decouple. The broader altcoin market is in a "survival of the fittest" phase, where only tokens with massive utility (HYPE) or idiosyncratic catalysts are holding value.

Key Market Drivers:

DEX Utility: Hyperliquid's rally proves that decentralized trading infrastructure is in high demand during volatility, driving value to its token.

Institutional Divergence: XRP's price crash contrasts with its growing institutional utility (Hex Trust), creating a potential value disconnect.

Regulatory/ETF Failure: Cardano's slide is exacerbated by fading ETF hopes, removing a key speculative prop for the price.

Niche Decoupling: Specific tokens (HYPE, M) decoupling from BTC shows that active stock-picking is rewarding traders even in a bear market.

Supply/Demand Fundamentals:

Whale Conviction: A $6.3M whale long on HYPE signals high-conviction betting on specific protocols over the general market.

Panic Selling: XRP's 15% intraday crash indicates massive retail capitulation and liquidation cascades.

Volume Spikes: High volume in "survivor" coins suggests capital is rotating out of dying alts into the few winners.

Deflationary Pressure: Projects with revenue (like Hyperliquid) are finding floors faster than purely speculative assets.

Market Trends & Others

"Crypto Apocalypse" Predicted as $1B Liquidated; Tech Stocks Drag Crypto Down

The macro environment is hostile. Economist Nouriel Roubini has predicted a "crypto apocalypse," arguing that the asset class will fail to deliver on its revolutionary promises under Trump-era policies. This coincides with a $1 billion liquidation event across crypto markets, triggered by a tech stock rout (Nasdaq leading declines) and fears of an AI bubble burst. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to its lowest level since the Terra collapse, signaling extreme distress.

Despite the panic, structural adoption continues. Binance absorbed nearly 80% of net selling pressure, cementing its role as the market's liquidity backstop. Gemini announced layoffs and an exit from UK/EU markets to focus on the U.S., reflecting the shifting regulatory landscape. Meanwhile, Bitwise and JPMorgan remain bullish long-term, viewing this crash as a "cyclical winter" that will clear the dead wood before the next expansion phase.

Key Market Drivers:

Macro Correlation: Crypto is trading as a high-beta tech stock proxy, suffering as the Nasdaq corrects from AI highs.

Liquidation Cascade: $1B in liquidations creates a forced selling loop, driving prices below rational levels temporarily.

Exchange Consolidation: Binance absorbing 80% of sell volume highlights the centralization of liquidity during crises.

Regulatory Retreat: Gemini exiting major markets signals that compliance costs and regulatory friction are reshaping exchange geography.

Supply/Demand Fundamentals:

Liquidity Sink: Centralized exchanges (Binance) acting as buyers of last resort prevents a total market freeze.

Capital Flight: The correlation with tech stocks suggests that traditional macro funds are pulling liquidity from both sectors simultaneously.

Sentiment Bottom: Extreme fear is historically a precursor to a reversal, as sellers run out of inventory.

Long-Term Demand: JPMorgan's $266k BTC target keeps the long-term investment thesis alive for patient capital.