Two ‘more’ pertinent economic reports were out yesterday, Tue 29 Apr 2025 : US consumer confidence index by The Conference Board. Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Needless to say, both were disappointing, to put it mildly. Consumer Confidence Index - April 2025. Consumer confidence for April 2025, sank -7.9 points to 86, its lowest level since May 2020. (see above) It’s a larger decline than economists’ projection of 87.7. Another report, US’s Expectations Index, that captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted -12.5 points this month to 54.4, also the lowest level since October 2011. It is well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. (see below) In the release, the Conference Board said consumers exp

(Note: This article mainly examines the situation from the perspectives of corporate earnings expectations, investor sentiment, valuation expectations, technical analysis, and historical data. The data is sourced from publicly available materials. The views are for discussion purposes only and should not be taken as direct investment advice.)Recently, Trump's new tariff policy has disrupted the market and even raised expectations of an economic recession. To determine whether the economy is heading towards a recession, it is necessary to continue monitoring the negative impacts brought about by Trump's trade policies and policy uncertainties:Are the Q2 GDP growth rate, consumer confidence index, manufacturing and services indices, leading economic indicators (LEI), and non-farm employment

💰Major indices opened high and continued to rise, with most tech stocks seeing green.💹 $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$/$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$/$Broadcom(AVGO)$ : Catch those stalwart performers in the semiconductor sector.📣 Stay tuned and supercharge purchasing power with CashBoost!The market's been soaring, as Trump's words brought some cheer, and the Fed's signals gets clear.| Market recapThe market has seen consecutive gains on Wednesday and Thursday, accumulating over 5% since Tuesday. A more conciliatory stance from Trump, combined with positive signals from the Federal Reserve, has buoyed the market. Stocks that were at recent price lows, particularly large te

On Mon, 14 Apr 2025, the S&P 500 reached an ominous-sounding milestone even as stocks largely added to their gains from last week’s rebound. When trading ended at 4pm, the large-cap index managed to tally a “death cross” — its first since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. S&P 500 - 14 Apr 2025 - Death Cross !! What is a “Death Cross” ? A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (ma) of a stock or index dips below its 200-day ma. Technical analysts interpret it as a sign that a correction could be metastasizing into a deeper downtrend. Did You Know ? As US stocks continue to struggle of late in 2025, a death cross has already appeared to: The small-cap Russell 2000 index. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , it has flashed this pat

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $Emerging Markets ETF( $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ )$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund( $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ )$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund( $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ )$ On April 22, 2025, President Trump’s declaration that he has “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell triggered a swift market turnaround. U.S. stocks roared back, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.8% to 5,302, the U.S. dollar strengthening, and bonds rallying, while gold retreated from its highs. Investors are now asking: Is this a massiv

The stock market is a high-stakes casino right now, and the Federal Reserve is spinning the wheel. With inflation stubbornly hovering at 3.1% in March 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.62%, investors are sweating bullets. The Nasdaq has shed 5.1% this month, closing at 17,342.19, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average clings to 42,108.63 after a 4.2% drop. Whispers of a rate hike—or a surprise pause—are swirling, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will the Fed’s next move tank growth stocks or ignite a relief rally? Let’s break it down with fresh data, market vibes, and trading plays to ride the wave. The Fed’s Tightrope: Inflation vs. Growth Inflation’s refusing to back down, clocking in at 3.1% last month—above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, jobless claims ticked up to 21

$ServiceNow(NOW)$ Strong Q1 FY2025 Earnings Performance Drives Shares Significantly Higher After HoursCore InsightsGrowth resilience highlighted: management raised guidance despite cautious IT spending environment, reflecting deep product moat (RPO +24% YoY to $18B).AI commercialization speeding up: from "technology story" to actual revenue generation, 2025 may be the inflection point of AI contribution.Strong upgrade guidance: current demand resilience exceeds expectations, customers regard ServiceNow as a "must-have" rather than an optional tool.If the economic downturn leads to a contraction of corporate IT budgets, it may affect the pace of expansion of small and medium-sized customers (current revenue concentration: Top 50 customers account fo

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a hawkish tone, not only reaffirming the Fed’s stance of being in no rush to cut rates, but also explicitly stating that the Fed would not intervene to support the stock market amid volatility. This firmly dashed market hopes for a "Fed Put", triggering a sharp sell-off in equities on the same day. The following day, Trump publicly lashed out, stating that he intended to fire Powell—once again raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Markets fell further in response to the escalating tension. Historically, when the Fed’s independence comes under serious threat, the outcomes have rarely been positive. A similar situation occurred between 1970 and 1974, when Pr

My Investing Muse (05May25) Layoffs, Delinquency & Closure news UPS has revealed plans to cut 20,000 jobs across its U.S. network, while Penske Logistics will eliminate over 300 positions in Missouri. US Xpress in Chattanooga, Tennessee, has also announced 56 job cuts. - FreightWaves Forever 21 is shuttering all 354 of its leased U.S. stores on May 1, 2025. It has been in the midst of massive liquidation sales across the country; sales of up to 60% off were seen throughout April. Mazda will shut down assembly lines for some of its CX-50 production in Canada at its Huntsville, Alabama plant, the first major automaker to halt U.S. production because of the tariffs. - Pedirayudas Layoffs and bankruptcies hit multiple sectors of the supply chain throughout April, as new or soon-to-be-impos

Source from YOUTUBESource from YOUTUBEBased on the discussion in the Stansberry Investor Hour, here are some key points explaining why the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ might fall in the next 10 years:USD index Monthly chart, by May 6th 2026Monetary Policy and InflationMoney Printing and Inflation: Larry Leard argues that the current monetary system is under stress and is essentially broken. The government has been engaging in significant money printing to cover large and growing deficits. This money printing is almost a mathematical certainty given the current economic situation. As a result, inflation is likely to become a persistent problem. When inflation rises, the value of the dollar typically falls because it erodes the purchasing p

Most airlines have now released their Q1 2025 earnings, reflecting a pattern of "falling costs overshadowed by weak demand." While declining fuel prices provided some breathing room, rising labor costs and sluggish domestic demand weighed heavily on profits. Airlines with higher international exposure (e.g., United Airlines) performed relatively better, whereas low-cost carriers reliant on domestic leisure travel (e.g., Frontier, $JetBlue Airways(JBLU)$ faced more severe challenges. Industry Overview: Weak Demand Pressures Earnings, Mixed Cost DynamicsIn Q1 2025, the U.S. airline industry was under dual pressure from weak demand and elevated costs. Industry-wide profit growth stalled, with the following core characteristics:Demand Weakness Drives

🌟🌟🌟Predicting a specific level like 5500 for the S&P500 is not an easy task and I do not have a crystal ball.  This requires an assessment of multiple macroeconomic and company specific factors.  However in a recovery scenario which could be fueled by improving corporate earnings, stabilised global trade, and favourable monetary policy, I believe that the S&P500 could very well return to 5500 and even go beyond.  On the flip side, persistent headwinds such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties or shifts toward tighter monetary policy might delay or derail that recovery.  The benchmark of 5500 is seen as a transition point that reflects market confidence in the resiliency of US companies and an overall economic rebound.  In essence, if e

Options Plays Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision Today, attention is on the FOMC policy decision . The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99% chance the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.5%, following stronger-than-expected April jobs data. While no rate change is expected, markets will react to Powell’s comments on two key issues: managing inflation risks from tariffs and signs of economic slowing. Powell faces a tough choice. If he sounds too dovish (leaning toward rate cuts), it might fail to control inflation from new tariffs. If too hawkish (keeping rates high), it could hurt economic growth. Nick Timiraos, a well-known Fed reporter, notes the central bank risks causing either a recession or stubborn inflation no matter what it does. Bloomberg analysts expect Powell to focus on fighting inflation, while

'Sell in May and Go Away' Will the Seasonality Hold True This Year? The longstanding stock market saying "sell in May and go away" advises investors to sell their stocks in May and re-enter the market in November. This strategy is rooted in the historical trend of markets performing worse in the summer months compared to the winter in the northern hemisphere. In most years, selling in May and taking a break from the market doesn't usually make much sense. However, in 2025, with Trump's tariff war bringing new developments daily, the market volatility is at an all-time high. It seems more tempting than ever to sell stocks and move into bonds, GICs (guaranteed investment certificates), cash, or cash equivalents. What Does History Tell Us? A 2023 study conducted by Manulife Investment Managem