Inflation Cools but Fed Hawks Divided — July on Hold; Will September Bring a Rate Hike?

Weaker US June CPI and PPI have eased July rate-hike fears. But Fed Chair Warsh called single-month data "imperfect indicators" of underlying inflation and stressed zero tolerance for persistent pressure. Hawkish splits persist: Dallas's Logan wants a "modest hike," while Vice Chair Jefferson backs a pause but warns hikes stay possible if inflation stalls. Futures price ~86% odds of a hold on July 29, yet September-hike odds top 50%. The market isn't trading cuts anymore — it's "pause in July, hike in September." Does tech keep benefiting, or is it time to brace for another hike?

avatarkoolgal
09-18
🌟🌟🌟Singapore is the undisputed global hub for SReits.  SReits are structural yield plays.  They live and die by interest rates.  When US inflation stays sticky and the Federal Reserve keeps yields high, it acts like a giant gravity well pulling global capital out of SReits and into risk free US Treasuries. If US Treasuries go up , global fund managers will gravitate towards them and sell SReits. However do not dump SReits entirely but treat it with extreme selectivity.  Avoid highly leveraged SReits and pivot toward premium institutional grade SReits. A good example of an SReit that has a high interest coverage ratio (ICR) and a high fixed debt mix is $Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SI)$ .  As a pure play data centre trust, Kepp
avatarJC888
09-15

Interest hike impact US Market & Treasury ...

US markets are bracing for the upcoming FOMC announcement on Wed, 16 Sep 2026, with market pricing, strongly hint of a +0.25% interest rate hike. As a solo retail investor, are you wondering how a tighter monetary policy will alter: Equities’ valuations. Borrowing costs (consumers or businesses etc..). Asset prices (stocks, bonds, real estates etc..) ? Will looking at how US economy changed in the past, under same macro-action, help to prepare us on what could happen next to fixed income (bond), precious metals (gold), and the stock market ? No harm trying, right ? So far… US benchmark index sits near record highs while Treasury yields climb toward levels that have repeatedly unsettled equity investors. (see below) Past 3 months' performances The 10-year note hovers just below 5.0%, the 30
Interest hike impact US Market & Treasury ...
avatarJC888
09-14

US Interest Hike is happening. Really ?

If there is one word to sum up US stock market for week ending 11 Sep 2026, it would be “choppy”. Aside from Mon, 07 Sep 2026 that was US Labour Day (public holiday), the market dipped for the next 3 trading sessions; only to surprise us on Friday when it staged a recovery of sort. US market on Fri, 11 Sep 2026 By the time trading ended on Friday, (see above) Dow climbed +0.98% to 52,573.29. S&P 500 rose by +0.86% to 7,656.98. Nasdaq gain +0.96% to 26,333.04. Weekly US market - Fri, 04 Sep to Fri, 11 Sep If we take a step back and look at US market for the week, Dow dipped by -1.89% to 52,573.29. S&P 500 pullbacked by -1.20% to 7,656.98. Nasdaq fell by -0.96% to 26,333.04. Key Catalysts. US markets experienced a volatile week driven by (a) shifting oil prices and (b) rising inflati
US Interest Hike is happening. Really ?

Cash Is Coming: How Singapore’s Payouts and Trump’s $5,000 Plan Could Shake Markets

On September 9, two very different cash stories were unfolding on opposite sides of the world. In Singapore, more than 2.4 million adult citizens began receiving S$400 to S$600 under the enhanced Budget 2026 Cost-of-Living Special Payment. In the U.S., President Donald Trump proposed a much larger US$5,000 “dividend” for every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans retain both the House and Senate in the midterm elections. At first glance, both stories are about governments putting money into consumers’ pockets. For investors, however, they represent very different market forces: Singapore’s payouts are targeted household support, while the U.S. proposal could become a trillion-dollar-scale fiscal event. In Singapore, the Money Is Already Arriving The Singapore payout is already underway. Eligi
Cash Is Coming: How Singapore’s Payouts and Trump’s $5,000 Plan Could Shake Markets
avatar苏36
09-10
My pick: B — S-REIT impact For Singapore investors, I think the biggest market impact is not the cash payout itself, but what it does to global interest rates. If the proposed US$5,000 dividend eventually becomes reality, stronger consumer spending could add pressure to inflation while also increasing government borrowing. That combination could keep U.S. Treasury yields higher for longer. And Singapore doesn’t sit in isolation. Higher global yields can raise refinancing costs and reduce the relative appeal of yield-sensitive assets such as S-REITs. Yes, local retailers, supermarkets and F&B businesses could benefit from Singapore’s household support. But I see that as a more direct and limited boost. For investors, I’d watch the bigger chain: fiscal stimulus → inflation → Treasury yie
avatarJC888
07-27

US market hit by War & AI Capex Worries.

For the week ending 24 Jul 2026, there were only a few economic reports to reference. They hardly made a dent in the US market because there were stronger factors dampening, enabling US market to finish the week lower. Index Performance. US market - 3 composite indexes past week performances DJIA. For the week, it fell by -0.4% to close at 51,947.25, despite a late rebound on Fri, 24 Jul 2026. S&P 500. Slipped by -1.03% over the 5 days to 7,411.98, marking its 2nd consecutive weekly decline. Nasdaq. Down by -2.90% for the week, closing at 24,975.82 due to heavy selling in mega-cap tech and the "Magnificent 7". Key Catalysts. Broadly, there were 4 key factors that caused the wild swings in US market, especially the tech index. Geopolitical & Energy Shocks: Brent crude surged past $1
US market hit by War & AI Capex Worries.
avatarD1ane
09-16
I’d go with D. The US$5,000 proposal is still uncertain, so I wouldn’t price in a major Singapore market impact yet. If it does happen, the first-order effect would likely be stronger consumer spending, but for S-REITs and banks, the bigger driver remains the path of U.S. inflation and interest rates. 👀🇸🇬
avatarJC888
08-03

US market rally to Earnings or Econ data ?

Will you be surprised to learn that US market actually rose to close off July 2026 ? I was. For the week ending 31 Jul 2026, all 3 composite indexes rose ending the week on a ‘high’. (see below) For the week: DJIA: +1.04% (+311.31 to 52,485.03). S&P 500: +1.05% (+25.52 to 7,489.72). Nasdaq: +1.59% (+137.67 to 25,373.85). Key Factors. Key factors that impacted US market included: (1) Tech titans’ quarterly earnings. 4 of 7 "Mag 7" members namely, $Microsoft(MSFT)$, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Apple(AAPL)$ all reported earnings within a 48-hour window. MSFT & AMZN supported the market, whi
US market rally to Earnings or Econ data ?
avatarKentzw
09-16
I’d go with A — Local spending boost. 🇸🇬💰 If cash payouts actually happen, the most direct impact would likely be on consumer spending, especially retail, F&B and services. The bigger question is how much of the payout gets spent versus saved. 👀📈
avatarKYHBKO
07-19

(Part 4 of 4) My investing muse (20jul26) - of wars and AI

My Investing Muse (20Jul2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies GOOGLE WORKERS ARE BRACING FOR LAYOFFS. 4,500 signed a petition demanding guaranteed severance and an end to performance quotas. 100+ rallied at HQ to deliver it to CEO Sundar Pichai. 4 in 10 tech workers now say they fear being laid off within a year. - X user Layoff Hedge "Millions of Americans want jobs but can't find them, and the number now exceeds the Great Financial Crisis," per Benzinga The total number of job cuts attributed to AI are 87,714 2026, per Challenger and Gray. This is 22% of all 2026 layoffs. - X user Unusual Whale "Midsize companies that employ millions of workers are now shedding jobs and relocating overseas to cut costs," per WSJ Summary of news (compiled by Gemini) The week starting July 13, 2026, sa
(Part 4 of 4) My investing muse (20jul26) - of wars and AI
avatarECLC
09-14
Pick A. Local spending boost - retail and F&B could benefit.

Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli
Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat

Weekly: STI at All-Time Highs, How US Tech Earnings Week Moves Your SGX Portfolio?

Singapore Market — $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ Weekly edges up 0.73% to record as banks and tech SDRs extend rally $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ at All-Time Highs: Is It Too Late to Buy? US Tech Earnings Week: How It Moves Your SGX Portfolio? The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ gained 0.73% and closed at a fresh record high of 5,509.43, marking its sixth consecutive weekly advance. The index has now surged 18.58% YoY, with the three local banks and select China tech SDRs continuing to drive the rally. Sectors: Publishing (+50.00%), Aluminum (+45.24%), and Forest Products (+30.48%) dominated the leaderboard on idiosyncratic catalysts, though these thinly tra
Weekly: STI at All-Time Highs, How US Tech Earnings Week Moves Your SGX Portfolio?

Navigating September Fed Rate Risks: Inflation, Stock Market Volatility, and Portfolio Strategies for the AI Era

The Federal Reserve's July 2026 decision to hold interest rates steady at  came with three hawkish FOMC dissents favoring a  hike, leaving the door open for a potential rate increase at the September meeting. Key Macro Drivers Behind the September Rate Decision Stubborn Energy Prices & Supply Shocks: Persistent geopolitical friction and supply bottlenecks in global oil routes have pushed energy prices higher. Because energy feeds directly into headline CPI and transport/manufacturing overhead, sustained high oil prices threaten to reignite broader inflationary pressures. AI Infrastructure CapEx Demand: Unprecedented capital expenditure on data centers, semiconductors, and power infrastructure (projected near  among major hyperscalers) continues to stimulate industrial an
Navigating September Fed Rate Risks: Inflation, Stock Market Volatility, and Portfolio Strategies for the AI Era
avatarKYHBKO
07-19

(Full Article) - Preview of the week (20Jul2026) - starts with Blackstone

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Jul2026) Several major data releases are due in the coming week, each offering insight into demand conditions, labour-market momentum, the housing sector, and the broader economic outlook. Crude oil inventories: Markets typically view this release as a gauge of consumption trends, particularly from the perspective of major oil companies. Initial jobless claims: The latest claims data will be released after a previous reading of 208,000. This remains one of the key labour-market indicators the Federal Reserve monitors when assessing upcoming interest-rate decisions. New home sales: June new home sales will be released following a previous reading of 580,000 units. The data will serve as an important barometer for the health of the real estate m
(Full Article) - Preview of the week (20Jul2026) - starts with Blackstone
avatarDacai
09-11
C. I would deploy the $600 into defensive stocks to make more returns.
I’d spend it on local food and essentials, benefiting Singapore’s heartland retailers and hawkers most.
🇸🇬 A. Local spending boost — Retail and F&B could benefit
avatarKYHBKO
07-12

(Full article) Preview of the week (13Jul2026) - the Q2/2026 earnings season starts with banking

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Jul2026) Key Economic Data to Watch The most closely watched release in the coming week will be the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core CPI is forecast to rise by 0.3% month on month, making it a key indicator for inflation trends and market expectations. China’s second-quarter GDP will also be announced. With the previous reading at 5.0%, the result will serve as an important gauge of China’s economic momentum and a useful reference point for global consumption trends. Inflation and Producer Costs The June Producer Price Index (PPI) will be another important release, with a forecast increase of 0.2%. PPI is a useful leading indicator for consumer inflation because higher producer costs may eventually be passed on to consumers through goods
(Full article) Preview of the week (13Jul2026) - the Q2/2026 earnings season starts with banking

US Stocks Under a Strong Dollar: Defensive Positioning with Options and Short Strategies

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:
US Stocks Under a Strong Dollar: Defensive Positioning with Options and Short Strategies