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11-06
APP: The 31% Surge Defying the "AI Doomsday" Sell-Off
The broader market just suffered its worst single-day rout since April 2025, wiping out roughly $2.5 trillion in market cap as a proposed "AI Super Ban" sparks fears of regulatory annihilation for advanced AI development. Amidst this panic, AppLovin (APP) surged 31%. Why? Because in a market priced for an apocalypse, $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ APP's Q3 print proved the growth engine is still intact. Revenue hit $2.185 billion (+55% YoY), net income reached $1.439 billion (+72% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA margins held near 84%. The Street was bracing for a growth deceleration and margin compression from AI compute costs. Instead, APP delivered 78% operating margins. Here is the breakdown of how APP is monetizing the AI ad-tech flywheel—and the hidden
TOPzuzu99: 78% margin is nasty, but a 17.5% tax rate creeping up can bite harder than people think. If that tailwind fades, does the net income story still look this clean?
980
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11-06
2.5Trillion dollars gone in a day. The bleeding is officially a haemorrhage!
Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So it happened, the “feel good” knee jerk reaction only last for a day when the democrats won. The market flipped a switch yesterday, and recorded its highest sell off of 2.5T dollars from the tech sector itself, levels never seen before since the covid pandemic, which was in line with what I anticipated. The optimism and potential in AI can only carry companies that far. The reality has to hit at some point, whereby profitability and debt ratio comes to scutiny under microscopic focus. Adding the common concensus that Trump is going to veto any plans that Democratic party is going to present, and the general reluctance to accelerate AI capabilit
TOPHard to call, but I lean repricing first. Debt matters, but which veto risk hits tech cash flows first here: chips, AI infra, or crypto-linked names? That decides whether this is rotation or repricing.
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11-07
Redwire: A 21% Crash, a Record Backlog, and a $17.5 Million Question
Redwire (NYSE: RDW) reported third-quarter revenue of $109.0 million after the close on November 4 — up 5.4% year over year, but $17.5 million short of the $126.5 million Wall Street consensus compiled by Fiscal.ai. The stock fell 21% to $6.13 on November 5, the steepest single-day drop among the major US-listed space names that day. The same press release, however, reported a record 32.3% gross margin, a record $619.7 million backlog up roughly 75% year over year, a quarterly book-to-bill of 1.73, and a reaffirmed full-year revenue forecast of $450 million to $500 million. This piece answers one question: is RDW's crash a repricing of broken demand, or a mechanical overreaction to shipment timing in a falling market? Figure 1 — The quarter in four numbers: revenue, record gross margin, re
TOPThat $619.7M backlog and 1.73 book-to-bill matter more to me than one ugly quarter. If Q4 lands inside guidance, this dump will look emotional
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11-07
SpaceX's 8.6% Jump Is Really a Bond-Market Test
On Friday 6 November, $SPCX(SpaceX)$ closed up 8.62%, adding roughly $144.6 billion of market value in one session, while the Dow fell 0.46% (BigGo Finance; Sina Finance, 7 Nov 2026). The better read is structural: SpaceX has become the market's largest levered buyer of AI chips, financed off its own balance sheet, and this week the bond market started deciding whether that machine gets built. The question: will Goldman Sachs and Apollo place a roughly $40 billion chip financing — and what happens to the equity if they cannot? Figure 1 — The four numbers that define the story: Friday's move, the compute mix, the equipment bill, the loan tranche. Sources: BigGo Finance; Reuters via Economic Times; Bloomberg via Lianhe Zaobao. A rocket company with a bond-financed compute habit On 26 October
TOPThe equity likely rerates lower if the $40 billion financing stalls. Without residual support or force-majeure relief, who is really warehousing the downside if delivery slips in H1 2027 and the lease economics reset?
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11-07
When AI Titanic sinks, it drags the whole crew with it.
Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. $Modine Manufacturing(MOD)$
TOPCooling is still the bottleneck here, and MOD sits right in that lane. Broken supports matter short term, but the long runway for data center thermal demand matters more.
820
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11-08 09:27
11.57 VIX points: check the level, not just the jump
A larger jump is not the same as a higher finish. Compare the move, the starting point and the closing level before deciding what the headline means. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on 5 Nov, versus 6.0% on 3 Apr 2025. Similar falls give us a comparison, not proof that the episodes are the same. The VIX rose 11.57 points from 16.61 on 5 Nov. Its April comparison rose 8.51 points. The starting level is context, not a mechanical explanation for a bigger points jump. My read: the jump overstates fear. But the counter-case matters. It finished at 28.18, near April's 30.02. Looking only at the change could make me dismiss the closing level. Keep the read separate from the test. I'll withdraw it if any daily VIX close is above 28.18 during 9-13 Nov. Equality does not trigger it. Staying below wou
TOPTerm structure matters more here: spot at 23.48 while front-end vol is still rich tells me this is stress, not full panic repricing
405
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11-08 09:31
What resonates most with me is Mr Seah's emphasis on discipline, capital preservation and emotional control. However, selling cash-secured puts on mega-caps is not necessarily a low-risk strategy. Premium income may be consistent, but substantial losses remain possible during prolonged market downturns. Even fundamentally strong companies are not guaranteed to recover. Personally, I prefer monthly DCA into a globally diversified ETF, supplemented by opportunistic purchases during significant market dips. It may not generate spectacular short-term returns, but it reduces individual stock concentration risk and requires less active management. Ultimately, sustainable wealth accumulation matters more than chasing impressive annual returns. The best investment strategy is one that remains man
TOPThat trade still needs active judgment, while a broad ETF setup is easier to stick with when volatility drags on.
720
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11-09 12:20
I believe Treasury yields will be the immediate driver of QQQ, with core CPI determining their direction. 📊 Friday's rebound was encouraging, but the stronger-than-expected payroll figures suggest the Federal Reserve may have less room to ease monetary policy. If core CPI comes in below expectations, Treasury yields could retreat, supporting technology valuations and extending QQQ's recovery. Conversely, stubborn inflation could push yields higher and trigger another sell-off. However, inflation is only part of the equation. Investors are increasingly questioning whether massive AI infrastructure investments can generate sustainable earnings and cash flow. My view: A softer CPI reading could spark a short-term rally, but a lasting recovery requires both favourable bond yields and stronger
TOPThe CPI link makes sense, but what would count as real AI proof here: better cash conversion, capex payback, or cleaner margins first?
726
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11-09 16:51
AI Power Infrastructure – The Real Bottleneck Game
PWR and ETN are the purest picks-and-shovels plays on the biggest structural force in U.S. electricity right now: Exploding power demand from AI data centers + the multi-decade grid rebuild. Here’s the clear-eyed view after both just reported. $Quanta(PWR)$ $Eaton Corp PLC(ETN)$ 1. Quanta Services (PWR) – Orders Are Not the Problem Anymore The new constraint Backlog hit $63.7 billion (up ~$10 billion in one quarter). Remaining performance obligations: $41.8 billion. Company added ~26,000 people this year. Management’s blunt message: labor is no longer the bottleneck. Transformers, conductors, poles, and switchgear are. When a contractor with $63 billion of work is forced to start manufac
TOPVertical integration sounds neat until steel poles and switchgear become your execution risk. PWR's $63.7B backlog can turn into delay math fast if supply stays tight
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11-09 19:22
December Rate Hike Odds Near 80%! CPI Tomorrow — Is Wall Street Facing Its Next Big Test?
Just as Wall Street was recovering from last week's dramatic selloff, another major market catalyst emerged. The latest U.S. jobs report came in much stronger than expected, pushing market expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike sharply higher. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, compared with economists' expectations of approximately 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month over month. Following the report, traders raised their expectations for a December rate hike. By November 9, market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point increase had reached approximately 80%. And the next major test is just around the corner. The U.S. October CPI report will be released on November
TOPMy Pick: ③ Economic resilience and earnings growth can offset higher rates. I believe the market is entering a valuation test, not an economic crisis. The 165,000 jobs added in October show resilience. However, stronger employment gives the Fed less reason to ease monetary policy. With December rate hike expectations approaching 80%, investors must reconsider what future growth is worth. Tomorrow's CPI matters, but I wouldn't base an entire strategy on one inflation reading. The bigger question is whether corporate earnings can justify current valuations. Companies with strong free cash flow, manageable debt and pricing power should be better positioned than businesses dependent on cheap financing. My strategy is selective accumulation, not blindly buying every dip. Higher rates may compress valuations, but they also reveal which businesses genuinely deserve their premium. @Tiger_comments [暗中观察]
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11-09 18:51
[Events] Jensen Huang's Affair Makes Headlines. Can His AI Bets Deliver?
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is back in the headlines, but this time, it's not about AI chips. Reports surrounding Huang's alleged extramarital affair have drawn widespread attention, raising questions about the potential implications for Nvidia. But while the headlines focus on Huang's personal life, Wall Street has another reason to watch Nvidia's AI empire this week. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ , and $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ are all set to report earnings. Two are backed by Nvidia, while the third supplies critical equipment to the semiconductor industry. With AI stocks under pressure, investors are asking a bigger question: Can Nvidia's AI ecosystem t
TOPWhich is the big winner this week? One. $CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)$—Demand for artificial intelligence computing remains strong
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11-09 17:27
Post-Midterm Market Volatility: More Bark Than Bite? Two Strategies to Navigate the Swings
The midterm elections are over, and, as markets expected, Trump has lost control of both chambers of Congress. It is common for a sitting president’s party to lose congressional control in the midterms. While this is bad news for the president, it may not cause much disruption in financial markets—and could have less impact than comments from the Federal Reserve. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2612(NQmain)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ET
TOPGold-silver spread makes sense here, and I’d lean silver first on a 1-3 month mean reversion. What catalyst do you see leading it: cooling real rates or a turn in silver industrial demand?
823
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11-09 17:13
Option Movers | NVIDIA's Calendar Call Combination and Bull Call Spread Signal Bullish Conviction; AMD Sees Heavy Activity in Put Options
Market Overview Technology stocks bounced back on Friday (Nov 6) from their worst drubbing in more than a year, but the Nasdaq Composite Index posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline as investors sifted for clues about what comes next in the AI trade. Top 10 Option Volumes Top 10: $NVDA(NVDA)$, $TSLA(TSLA)$, $MU(MU)$, $SPCX(SPCX)$, $AAPL(AAPL)$, $AMD(AMD)$, $INTC(INTC)$, $META(META)$, $IREN(IREN)$,
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11-09 17:22
CRWV's Credit Alarm: Buy the AI Dip Now, or Wait for Earnings and Clearer Financing?
1️⃣ The Market's Question: Can AI Stocks Keep Rebounding as Financing Gets Harder? In its November 6 market report, Reuters noted that CRWV's five-year credit default swap spread had risen above 1,000 basis points, a record high. At the same time, the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ was rebounding nearly 2% during Friday's session. The policy shift toward Democratic proposals to pause data-center construction was an immediate catalyst for the recent sharp selloff in the Nasdaq 100. The deeper issue being repriced, however, is the weakening assumption that AI capital spending can expand regardless of cost. A CDS spread measures the price investors pay for credit protection. It signals perceived credit risk, rather than an actual default, and canno
TOPB. Wait for this week's earnings. I would not confuse a valuation reset with a financing reset. AI demand may remain powerful, but the market is asking who can fund infrastructure long enough to monetize it. Reuters reported on November 9 that lenders are becoming more cautious toward AI borrowing, while Nebius shelved a planned high-yield bond offering. That is a stronger warning than a one-day Nasdaq rebound. CRWV’s $104 billion backlog looks impressive, but backlog is not cash. Delivery schedules, customer concentration, interest expense and construction costs determine how much value shareholders receive. I want revenue conversion to improve without capex and financing needs outrunning operating cash flow. For NBIS, I would watch liquidity, funding alternatives and whether expansion plans are being adjusted. I’m not abandoning AI; I’m separating demand winners from financing-dependent builders. I would add only when earnings show growth becoming self-funding, not merely bigger.
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11-09 17:08
🐯 Berkshire Hathaway Just Bought Back $9.6 Billion of Its Own Stock. Is It a Sign of Confidence?
Profits are under pressure, but Berkshire is buying back its own shares at a faster pace. What does Warren Buffett's successor see that the market might be missing? 💰 A $9.6 Billion Bet on Itself $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ has made a major move: the company reportedly repurchased $9.6 billion worth of its own shares in Q3 2026, more than double the approximately $4.5 billion spent in Q2. And the buying didn't stop there. Berkshire reportedly repurchased another $2 billion in October. That's a significant shift in pace, especially for a company known for being selective about when it spends its enormous cash reserves. 📈 How Has BRK.B Been Performing? Interestingly, Berkshire's aggressive buyback activity comes alongside positive m
TOPI would choose a, but only when Berkshire shares trade below their intrinsic value. The interesting part isn't the $9.6 billion buyback. It's the opportunity cost behind it. With operating earnings falling 5.8%, Berkshire faces business-cycle pressures. Yet Greg Abel appears to believe buying Berkshire shares offers better risk-adjusted returns than investing in other businesses at current valuations. That's a signal of management's confidence, not proof that the stock is undervalued. Berkshire's enormous cash reserves also provide flexibility to seize opportunities during market downturns. My view: buybacks make sense, but discipline matters more than speed. Abel's real test isn't how much cash he spends, but how intelligently he allocates every dollar. @WallStreet_Tiger [胜利]
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11-09 16:58
[Events] CPI & PPI This Week: Nasdaq Rally or Selloff?
Wall Street is coming off a turbulent week, and another major test lies ahead. Last week, investors digested two significant developments: the U.S. midterm elections and a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, while the U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. The stronger jobs data highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, but it also raised questions about the Federal Reserve's next move. If the labor market remains strong, will the Fed have less reason to cut interest rates? Meanwhile, tech stocks remained under pressure. Nvidia, AMD and Meta were caught in the selloff as investors grew increasingly concerned about stretched valuations, rising AI spending and whether those investments
TOPMy Pick: C. Trade Sideways (-1% to +1%) I expect the Nasdaq to trade sideways this week, with volatility remaining elevated. The market faces a tug-of-war between economic resilience and inflation risks. Stronger employment suggests the US economy remains healthy, but it could also give the Fed less reason to cut rates, keeping pressure on growth stocks. Tuesday's CPI report will be the biggest catalyst. Cooling inflation could push Treasury yields lower and support tech stocks. However, hotter inflation could further pressure elevated AI valuations. More importantly, investors need evidence that massive AI capital expenditure can translate into sustainable earnings and free cash flow. My strategy is to avoid chasing a relief rally and watch Treasury yields and semiconductor performance. Prediction: C — Sideways (-1% to +1%).Caution will likely dominate until inflation provides a clearer signal. @TigerEvents [正经]
883
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11-04
AMD +8% Can the AI Rally Last
Hey Tigers! 🐯 AMD just gave AI bulls another reason to stay interested. Its earnings update sent shares up 8% in extended trading on November 3. But the next trade depends on whether faster sales can translate into sustained profits. My take: AMD has strengthened the case for AI infrastructure demand. The stock now needs execution to keep pace with expectations. NVIDIA and Broadcom remain part of that debate, but their own earnings will decide how much of AMD’s momentum belongs to them. 1 | Two Rallies and Two Different Clocks During November 3 regular trading, NVIDIA gained 2.3% and Broadcom rose 3.1%. Microsoft, Amazon and Meta each advanced more than 2%. Those moves preceded AMD’s after-close results. They cannot be presented as a reaction to the earnings release. AMD’s 8% move belongs
TOPAMD's real opportunity may not be to dethrone NVIDIA, but to make the AI market less dependent on a single supplier. Data-center revenue nearly doubled to $8.5 billion, while Q4 revenue guidance of $17 billion signals accelerating demand. Non-GAAP operating income also rose 75%, suggesting AMD is converting growth into earnings. However, the 55% Q4 gross-margin outlook, below Q3's 56%, deserves attention. Revenue growth means little if rising costs weaken profitability. Supply constraints also remain a risk. I'm constructive on AMD's business, but wouldn't chase an 8% after-hours jump. The real test is whether Helios deployments translate into repeat orders, stronger margins and cash generation. AMD doesn't need to replace NVIDIA to win. Capturing a meaningful share of the AI market could already create substantial shareholder value. @WallStreet_Tiger [思考]
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11-09 14:43
Musk Put $500 Billion on SpaceX by 2027 — Two Dates Have to Land First
Elon Musk told the Baron Investment Conference in New York on November 6 that SpaceX's annualized recurring revenue will "very likely" clear $500 billion by December 2027 — "not a promise, just my best guess," and $1 trillion is not impossible [S: Cailian Press, 7 Nov 2026]. The market's first reaction came Friday: $SpaceX(SPCX)$ closed at $134.27, up 8.62%, still below the $135 IPO price from its June listing — the largest IPO in history at roughly $86 billion raised [S: Cailian Press, 7 Nov 2026]. The gap is enormous: Q3 2026 revenue of roughly $14.6 billion annualizes to only about $58.4 billion [S: Tencent News / Fusion Fund interview, 9 Nov 2026]. This piece answers one question: what has to actually happen before December 11 for that gap to
TOPNov 13 Flight 15 and that Q4 annualized $100B run rate are the only numbers that matter first
1.23K
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11-09 14:51
🎁Weekly EPS Growth & Dividend Leaders: CSCO, AMAT, MUFG, PBR, MFG and more
😀Hi Tigers, As the Q3 earnings season unfolds, we’re taking a closer look at potential outperformers from two key angles: EPS expectations and dividend performance. In the first part, we highlight the top 20 stocks by market capitalization with stronger EPS estimates ahead of their earnings, scheduled between November 9 and November 13. 🎁Weekly Higher EPS Estimates: CSCO, AMAT, MUFG, PBR, MFG & More 1. Why EPS Matters? Earnings per share(EPS) refer to the income per share brought to investors/shareholders in the open market. EPS is calculated as a company's profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The resulting number serves as an indicator of a company's profitability. Investors like companies with high profitability, and the market always rewards those earnings r
TOPI would putAMAT and URIat the top of my watchlist, but for very different reasons. For earnings growth, $Applied Materials (AMAT)$ stands out. Analysts expect Q4 EPS of $4.06, compared with $2.17 a year ago, representing approximately 87% YoY growth. This reflects strong demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. However, I would pay close attention to forward guidance and order momentum rather than simply celebrating an EPS beat. For dividends, my pick is $United Rentals (URI)$. Its upcoming November 10 ex-dividend date offers $1.97 per share. More importantly, its payout ratio is only around 17.3%, suggesting room for dividend sustainability. Its average analyst price target is approximately $1,293, implying 22.5% upside from its November 6 closing price. My strategy:Prioritize earnings quality for capital appreciation and dividend sustainability for income. Chasing ex-dividend dates alone is rarely a winning investment strategy. @TigerObserver [贱笑]
2.34K
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11-09 14:55
Weekly | The Mag 7 Crown Slips: Earnings Edge Below the S&P 493 for the First Time Since 2022
Last Week' Recap 1.Market Digest: NASDAQ Enters Correction, Mag 7 Loses Crown, Jobs Roar Back, Yields Retreat (Week Ended November 6, 2026) Zigzag market — A one-sided midterm election outcome, fresh AI concerns, and a strong jobs report fueled volatility. Stocks rallied Wednesday, tumbled Thursday, partially recovered Friday. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -3.4%, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -2.7%, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ -0.9%. NASDAQ correction — Thursday's 5.5% drop was the biggest daily decline in 19 months, sending the index into correction territory (more than 10% below its October 6 record). The Magnificent Seven lost more than $1 trillion in market cap on Thursday alone. Jobs comeba
TOPThe Great Market Rotation: AI Hype Meets Earnings Reality Last week exposed a growing divide: strong economic data no longer guarantees a stock market rally. US payrolls surged by 165,000, while unemployment eased to 4.1%. Yet the Nasdaq entered correction territory, reflecting growing concerns over valuations, AI capital expenditure, and profitability. Meanwhile, Hong Kong technology stocks surged 8.61%, while Singapore's STI fell 3.67%, highlighting diverging regional sentiment. This week's CPI, PPI, and earnings from AMAT, CRWV, NBIS, and RKLB will offer important clues. My view: the next market leaders won't necessarily be those spending the most on AI, but those converting investment into sustainable revenue, free cash flow, and earnings growth. Cash flow matters more than promises. Selective buying beats blindly chasing the dip. @TigerObserver [捂嘴]