To The Moon

CPI came in at 3.5% this morning—a clean beat against the 3.8% consensus. Risk assets immediately caught a bid. Semis jumped, gold popped, and the indices opened deep in the green. But the rally is already fading. Traders who bought the early dip are hitting a wall of reality, starting with energy. Crude is flirting with $80 again, and pump prices crept from $3.79 to $3.86 this week alone. That matters. When gasoline spikes, it keeps transportation and services inflation stubborn, and the market absolutely hates sticky data. Then came Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Testifying before the House, he wasted no time dousing the early morning optimism with cold water: There might be some that look at this morning's data and say, 'Oh, mission accomplished. Everything is swell.' That is not my view." W

Earnings season is here, and many traders want to use options to catch big moves. But earnings options are exactly where most people get burned: they get the direction right, yet still lose money. Today we'll cover two key things: how to properly estimate earnings-related volatility, and how to understand IV Crush — "the buyer's enemy and the seller's friend." Part 1: Volatility Is Not a Gut Feeling How much a stock will move after earnings isn't something you need to guess — the market has already priced in the expected range. The calculation is straightforward, using the ATM Straddle: Straddle Price ≈ At-the-Money Call Premium + At-the-Money Put Premium Market's Expected Move ≈ Straddle Price ÷ Current Stock Price This is your baseline: only when the actual price move exceeds this number

Hi Tigers 🐯, Welcome to "What the Tigers say." 👋 $SK hynix(SKHY)$ made a historic Nasdaq debut this week, with its ADR surging over 27% and pricing at $149 to raise roughly $26.5 billion in one of the largest foreign listings in U.S. market history. The move instantly ignited debate across the community: is this a genuine inflection for the memory super-cycle, or just a short-term squeeze fueled by listing-day euphoria? Before today's session played out, the community was already doing the heavy lifting. Let's rewind to the three sharpest takes from @EstherLearningTrades, @TigerOptions

Replying to @AnnaMaria:Hi, thanks for reading my post and sharing your views.  I am still trying to find a best entry point given (a) MSFT's death cross still in play and more importantly (b) the Middle East unrest, that proved to be the most "unstablizing" factor.   Worse case scenario, it could usher in a new game plan where costs remains high forever (with the Hormuz Straits control by either Iran/Oman or US), depressing everything else in the process.  This is my current concern.//@AnnaMaria:Been in Microsoft 5+ years, still bullish. Q4 likely beats if Azure and AI attach stay strong

I'm encouraged by today's V-shaped reversal, but I don't think the correction is fully over. The rebound suggests the worst forced selling may be easing and buyers are returning, yet one strong session isn't enough to confirm a durable bottom while leverage and volatility remain high. I'm still focused on the long-term AI memory story. I believe $SK hynix(SKHY)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$ and the broader HBM supply chain will continue to benefit from AI demand, but I want to see confirmation from upcoming earnings, HBM pricing and company guidance before turning more bullish. For now, I'm cautiously optimistic. I'll be watching whether the recovery broadens across memory, foundries and semiconductor equip

I'm optimistic about $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ AI strategy. A 14GW compute target shows management is thinking long term and is determined to stay at the forefront of AI. Yes, the spending is enormous, but in an AI race where compute is a competitive advantage, investing aggressively today could strengthen Meta's position for years to come. It's not just about Nvidia anymore—companies involved in memory, networking, optical components, power and data-center infrastructure should all benefit as hyperscalers continue expanding AI capacity. I see this as a broad ecosystem opportunity rather than a single-stock story. For me, the biggest factor is execution. If Meta can convert this massive investment into stronger AI products, better advertising

A 12.6% one-day decline is significant, but by itself it does not confirm that the memory supercycle has peaked. The key question is why the stock fell: If the decline was driven mainly by valuation compression and profit-taking, especially after a very strong run and high expectations, the long-term memory thesis may remain intact. If it reflects evidence of weakening NAND pricing, customer inventory corrections, or deteriorating demand, then it would be more concerning. At present, the industry's structural drivers remain broadly supportive: AI servers continue to require more high-performance storage. Enterprise SSD demand is stronger than in previous cycles. Supply discipline across major NAND manufacturers is much better than in past booms. However, after a record rally, expectations

$IBM Woah. IBM put out preliminary Q2 results...and they are not good. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up 1% YoY. Consulting revenue was flat and infrastructure revenue was down 7% YoY. All the software names are down in sympathy to IBM basically saying that software spend went to semiconductor spend this quarter. CEO Arvind Krishna: “In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.” He also said clients were distracted by “rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns,” and that IBM “did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.” Company just lose $65B in market cap. I don't think all the software nam

On July 8 2026 I posted the EURUSD buy/long trade on social media @AidanFX with the entry, stop loss and targets. “LONG EURUSD 1.1410 Stop Loss 1.1391 Target 1.14385 – 1.1448 area” EURUSD 15 Minute Chart July 8 2026 EURUSD moves higher and hits 2R target at 1.1448 from 1.1410 and I closed the buy trade for +38 pips (+2% gain risking 1% on every trade) A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG. Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be ti