To The Moon

The moat nobody notices until it leaks I think investors still underestimate how unusual Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance machine really is. Most conglomerates collect capital and then allocate it. Berkshire’s genius was that it collected capital while often being paid to hold it. That is the magic of float. Warren Buffett effectively turned insurance liabilities into one of the cheapest investment funding sources in financial history. The problem is that float only stays magical if underwriting discipline remains exceptional. Berkshire’s float machine still works — just slightly less flawlessly That is why I think Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance division is entering its first genuine post-Buffett stress test. Not because the business is broken, and certainly not because GEICO suddenly forgot

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ is currently riding a wave of high-octane growth that has caught the market’s attention, though the path to $100 remains a tug-of-war between aggressive reinvestment and bottom-line stability. Following its Q1 2026 earnings (released May 12, 2026), the stock saw a massive double-digit surge. While the 3% jump and subsequent pullback you noted represent the typical "digestion" of a move, the underlying data suggests the "re-rating" to $100 is not just possible—it is already being factored in by several major institutions. The Q1 2026 Reality Check The "blowout" was driven by a massive 47% year-on-year revenue growth ($7.1B), significantly beating estimates. However, the market is still wrestling with the "Growth vs. Profit" trade-off: S

The AI Capex Supercycle: $725 Billion, Bottlenecks Everywhere, and ROIC Hanging in the Balance I am long the AI buildout. I am also willing to name the number that nobody is clearly stating. Goldman Sachs calculates that maintaining current returns on capital would require these companies to realise an annual profit run-rate of over $1 trillion by 2027. Consensus projects $450 billion. That is a 2x gap — and it will not resolve uniformly across all four hyperscalers. Through my Asian lens is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The numbers first: $725B combined 2026 capex — Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta. Up 77% from 2025’s record. 94% of operating cash flow consumed by AI infrastructure before debt financin