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2.86K
General
Michael Esther
·
04-18

SPY Seasonal Cycle Signals Mid-Year Weakness Amid Macro Pressure

This is 99-year seasonality $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ across the 4-year presidential cycle: This is where you are: 1. Typical pattern:Election year → modest uptrend 2. Post-election → volatility/drawdowns 3. Mid-cycle → weakness / chop (you are here) 4. Pre-election → strong rally This chart shows the peak around April then weakness into Septemer. Then massive rally into pre-election year Here's 4 critical things to pay attention to (if the SPY sells off badly): 1. Rates aren’t coming down and that’s a problem The market rallied on the idea of cuts. 2. Inflation is re-accelerating at the worst time We were trending toward 2%… Now back above 3%. This traps the Fed. They can’t cut. 3. Oil + war = earnings compression If oil keeps pushing high
SPY Seasonal Cycle Signals Mid-Year Weakness Amid Macro Pressure
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2.50K
General
Michael Esther
·
04-18

SPY Breaks Out of Pin, Eyes 710 as Gamma Structure Shifts

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is now at 706 and positioning has shifted from pin to expansion. Here’s the clean read. Net GEX is +10.60B. Still positive, still long gamma, but no longer extreme. This allows price to move with direction instead of being stuck. 707–708 is now the dominant zone. You can see heavy positive GEX stacking here. This becomes your new magnet and control area. Below, 700–702 is your key support band. You can clearly see negative GEX sitting under price. If this breaks, moves can accelerate lower toward 697. Above, 710 is the next level building. Strong positioning there means if momentum continues, price can push quickly into that zone. 3 scenarios: Most likely: slight bullish continuation, range between 705–708 with upw
SPY Breaks Out of Pin, Eyes 710 as Gamma Structure Shifts
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1.77K
General
SmartReversals
·
04-18

Unstoppable Train - Will Earnings Fuel the Rally?

Last week the Weekly Compass presented 12 setups 10 reached their targets, 1 neared their target, only 1 moved in the opposite way. or remained constructive, resulting in a 91.6% effectiveness rate. The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move. Top Performing Setups Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week
Unstoppable Train - Will Earnings Fuel the Rally?
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1.46K
General
jfsrevg
·
04-18

RS Divergence Warning: Why ARGT Lags EWZ and ILF Despite Similar Setup

Educational Thread — RS Bearish Divergence: Why “Cheap” Isn’t an Opportunity $Global X MSCI Argentina ETF(ARGT)$ vs $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ & $iShares Latin America 40 ETF(ILF)$ One of the few groups hitting 1-month RS highs ahead of the Mar 31 pivot in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ was LatAm equities which can be expressed via directly ETF execution into $ARGT $EWZ $ILF. They’re driven by the same regional macro factors: $DXY weakness and shifting Fed rate expectations. All 3 also broke out of similar bullish descending wedge structures. While
RS Divergence Warning: Why ARGT Lags EWZ and ILF Despite Similar Setup
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2.42K
General
JaminBall
·
04-18

Is the AI Boom Creating Hidden Risks Beneath the Surface?

I’ve been thinking a lot recently about comments $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Satya made a few years back. If we rewind the clock to mid / late 2022, the biggest thing on software companies & investors’ mind was “when will the optimizations end.” The ZIRP period of 2020-2021 created a buying frenzy - no one was thinking about costs (when it came to cloud / cloud software spend), they were only thinking about growth and capturing more market share (oversimplification, but you get the main point I’m making). At the end of the day, the market was providing cheap and abundant capital (for public and private companies), and investors (for both public and private companies) were rewarding growth (ie placing the most emphasis on growth when determining valuatio
Is the AI Boom Creating Hidden Risks Beneath the Surface?
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2.54K
General
TRIGGER TRADES
·
04-18

$NQ Hits All-Time Highs After Bullish FVG Setup

The upside objective today was the all-time highs on $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ . Price formed a bullish M30 FVG support. Textbook bullish SMT → iFVG buy signal FIRED. 175+ points later — NQ at all-time highs. Members BANKED. ✓ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ outlook dropping later. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ and NQ are about to tag their 2026 highs. Those are profit taking levels. The bearish SMT with $YM is still intact at ATH. What does that mean? ES/NQ are sweeping the highs while YM is FAILING to confirm them. That's a pullback signature. Short-term pullback se
$NQ Hits All-Time Highs After Bullish FVG Setup
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5.37K
Selection
Reynor
·
04-17

CFTC:S&P Net Short Positions Surge Suddenly, Signs of Capital "Rotation" Become Evident

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm. Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC Data The CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries
CFTC:S&P Net Short Positions Surge Suddenly, Signs of Capital "Rotation" Become Evident
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4.78K
General
CutieYolkYolk
·
04-15
$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ Continue DCA on VOO during good and bad times. Market recovered remarkably and so is VOO. Happy to get some accumulations done when it was weaker the past few weeks
VOO
04-15 01:33
USVanguard S&P 500 ETF
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Buy
Open
637.99
0
+6.41%
Holding
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ Continue DCA on VOO during good and bad times. Market recovered remarkably and so is VOO. Happy to get some accumulatio...
2
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4.89K
General
Summertrades
·
04-15
$DELL 20260417 175.0 PUT$ Simple arbitrage trade, option flip bought @0.85 yesterday, sold @2.30 today. Profit around ≈$145
DELL PUT
04-15 21:52
US20260417 175.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Close
2.30
1Lot(s)
+167.21%
Closed
Dell Technologies Inc.
$DELL 20260417 175.0 PUT$ Simple arbitrage trade, option flip bought @0.85 yesterday, sold @2.30 today. Profit around ≈$145
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3.59K
General
CutieYolkYolk
·
04-15
$INTC 20260417 70.0 CALL$ Sold some calls on INTC at $70. Think the rise is overblown with range of good news and buoyant market last 2 weeks but the fundamentals will come back to reality at some point.  Ok to hold short at $70 for a short term trade, if fail will cut loss
INTC CALL
04-15 23:28
US20260417 70.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Open
0.30
3Lot(s)
--
Closed
Intel
$INTC 20260417 70.0 CALL$ Sold some calls on INTC at $70. Think the rise is overblown with range of good news and buoyant market last 2 weeks but t...
1
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7.21K
General
VNW Capital
·
04-15
$QQQM VERTICAL 260618 PUT 255.0/PUT 250.0$ Income play, with 64 days to expiration. Market breadth just started to broaden, likely to pocket this premium. 
QQQM Vertical
04-15 23:27
US255.0/250.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Credit
Open
-1.27
3
--
Holding
QQQM VERTICAL 260618 PUT 255.0/PUT 250.0
$QQQM VERTICAL 260618 PUT 255.0/PUT 250.0$ Income play, with 64 days to expiration. Market breadth just started to broaden, likely to pocket this p...
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7.22K
General
CutieYolkYolk
·
04-15
$MSFT 20260417 380.0 PUT$ Take profit. Market really rallied up the last 2 weeks. This short put had for the longest time, was in losing zone as low as $356.28 until the spike up especially the last 3 days and moved to out of the monet just in time before expiry this Fri.  Happy to close as the rally had been fast and steep so any pull backs is a reasonable outcome in the coming days.
MSFT PUT
04-15 23:17
US20260417 380.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Buy
Close
0.14
1Lot(s)
+99.10%
Closed
Microsoft
$MSFT 20260417 380.0 PUT$ Take profit. Market really rallied up the last 2 weeks. This short put had for the longest time, was in losing zone as lo...
2
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11.39K
Hot
Shyon
·
04-16
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I’l've been using this recent pullback as an opportunity to steadily add to my position in Palantir Technologies, rather than stepping aside. Volatility like this tends to shake out short-term traders, but it also creates pricing inefficiencies. For me, this isn't a signal to panic—it's a chance to lean into my conviction. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) helps me stay disciplined, especially when sentiment swings faster than fundamentals. One of the core reasons I continue to DCA is because Palantir's long-term narrative remains intact. The company sits right at the intersection of AI, data infrastructure, and government-commercial integration. While the market may be repricing high-multiple tech names in the sh
PLTR
04-16 01:44
USPalantir Technologies Inc.
SidePriceRealized P&L
Buy
Open
140.38-2.84%
Holding
Palantir Technologies Inc.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I’l've been using this recent pullback as an opportunity to steadily add to my position in Palantir Technologies...
TOPAvenite: Absolutely.. Every now and then rumors about another disruptive company would emerge just like the ‘Deepseek’ rumors. But look where it is now ✌️
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2.51K
General
逆天邪神云澈
·
04-16
$PLTR 20260508 130.0 PUT$ Its been a long time since I sell puts on PLTR. Doubt will be like last year and drop below 100 and placing my bets on  that it will not drop below 130 after earnings 
PLTR PUT
04-16 21:36
US20260508 130.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Open
3.95
1Lot(s)
--
Closed
Palantir Technologies Inc.
$PLTR 20260508 130.0 PUT$ Its been a long time since I sell puts on PLTR. Doubt will be like last year and drop below 100 and placing my bets on th...
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1.47K
General
VNW Capital
·
04-16
$META VERTICAL 260515 PUT 520.0/PUT 525.0$ Still have 29 days before expiration and this trade reach 85% profitability.Decided not to squeeze to last $ and redeploy capital.
META Vertical
04-16 21:45
US525.0/520.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Debit
Close
0.18
2
--
Closed
META VERTICAL 260515 PUT 520.0/PUT 525.0
$META VERTICAL 260515 PUT 520.0/PUT 525.0$ Still have 29 days before expiration and this trade reach 85% profitability.Decided not to squeeze to la...
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1.42K
General
逆天邪神云澈
·
04-16
$ADBE 20260529 265.0 CALL$ Hope the price starts climbing from here. My average price around 400+[Cry]  
ADBE CALL
04-16 21:46
US20260529 265.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Open
7.80
1Lot(s)
+85.00%
Holding
Adobe
$ADBE 20260529 265.0 CALL$ Hope the price starts climbing from here. My average price around 400+[Cry]
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1.85K
General
VNW Capital
·
04-16
$SBUX 20260522 105.0 CALL$ Converting to covered call for extra yield/income. Added cushion for more capital gain in case earning report will be excellent.
SBUX CALL
04-16 21:56
US20260522 105.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Open
1.82
1Lot(s)
--
Closed
Starbucks
$SBUX 20260522 105.0 CALL$ Converting to covered call for extra yield/income. Added cushion for more capital gain in case earning report will be ex...
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1.49K
General
VNW Capital
·
04-16
$TQQQ 20260529 48.0 PUT$ Income play and also fine to own shares at this price. TQQQ is a derivative of QQQ, more volatile. Pays dividends too.
TQQQ PUT
04-16 22:31
US20260529 48.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Open
1.89
2Lot(s)
--
Closed
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
$TQQQ 20260529 48.0 PUT$ Income play and also fine to own shares at this price. TQQQ is a derivative of QQQ, more volatile. Pays dividends too.
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6.31K
General
CutieYolkYolk
·
04-16
$VXX 20260424 45.0 CALL$ Take profit for these short calls on VXX as volatility had dipped massively due to deescalation in the Middle East.  They will expire next Fri but with little premium left, so it's prudent to close and remove the tail end risk. 
VXX CALL
04-16 02:22
US20260424 45.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Buy
Close
0.06
3Lot(s)
+97.61%
Closed
iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN
$VXX 20260424 45.0 CALL$ Take profit for these short calls on VXX as volatility had dipped massively due to deescalation in the Middle East. They w...
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