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04-04
🐻 BTC Rebound or Bear Trap? Don't Bet on COIN Just Yet
Let's be honest about what's actually happening right now. BTC just closed its first green month since September, a 1.8% gain after five consecutive months of losses. But context matters: from October 2025 through February 2026, BTC dropped from its all-time high of $126,000 to as low as $60,000, wiping out roughly $1.57 trillion in total crypto market value, the longest consecutive monthly losing streak since the 2018 bear market. As of today, April 4, BTC is trading around $66,650, roughly $16,500 lower than it was one year ago. The so-called "rebound" you may have seen referenced this week? BTC just closed out its worst opening quarter since 2018, erasing roughly 23% of its value. This is not a clean bounce. It's a market clinging to a ledge. Where We Are: The Real Setup BTC entered Apr
TOPchipzzy: Solid analysis, COIN's tied to BTC. Better wait for FOMC.[看跌]
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04-04
Consider Option For RKLB Potential Break Through $70 Support Zone
As of early April 2026, $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ is in a period of high volatility, trading near a critical "make-or-break" junction. The stock has recently retraced from its 52-week high of $99.58 and is currently hovering around $67.73. The $70 level is a psychological and technical "Polarity Point"—it has acted as both a ceiling (resistance) and a floor (support) multiple times in the first quarter of 2026. Technical Analysis: The Battle for $70 1. Resistance Levels The $70 Threshold: This is the immediate hurdle. Recent price action shows the stock struggling to sustain gains above this mark, with a secondary "supply zone" identified between $72.60 and $73.70. Moving Averages: RKLB is currently trading below its declining 20-day and 50-day
TOPthanks for sharing and I do my analysis n made some profit [Salute]
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04-04
Buffett’s $380B Warning: Why the Oracle is Skipping the "Dip" The recent 6–10% pullback in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had retail traders screaming bloody murder—or rushing to blindly "buy the dip." But when asked about the market's turbulence, Warren Buffett brushed it off with three brutal words: "This is nothing." With Berkshire Hathaway sitting on a record-shattering $380B+ cash pile in 2026, the message is clear. The Oracle isn’t bottom-fishing for a quick bounce; he’s waiting for real blood in the streets. So, what does a "big decline" actually look like to smart money, and what does it mean for your portfolio? 1️⃣ Perspective from a $380B Cash Fortress Retail traders often panic over a 5% red week, but Buffett's historical frame of reference is entirely different. He reminded the mar
TOPThere’s no bottom to fish 🐟… obviously Warren Buffett is not interested. If history is a guide, the kind of blood in the street that makes Buffett sits up is when the governments and central banks 🏦 are at their wits end! When the entire system is looking for a saviour and when no other billionaires have that sort of financial clouts to do anything since they are also sinking in the blood mud. That’s a Buffett’s specialty. Always has been… if Wall Street and market participants have not known this, they have not been around for long. 5% is normal. Even 20% bear 🐻 runs don’t mean a thing after such a market euphoria 🐂 run! The real blood in the streets happens when the entire system is on the verge of collapse like the time of GFC, or in Asian case, the Asian financial crisis in 1997… when countries were dropping like flies, begging for IMF to bail them out! In conclusion, this is nothing. Buffett is still waiting, so be warned! [Spurting]
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04-04
Trump’s "Victory" Triggers an Oil Spike — Is Geopolitical Risk the New VIX? Donald Trump just claimed an “overwhelming victory” in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, but if you look at the tape, the market is pricing in anything but peace. By threatening two to three more weeks of "extremely hard" strikes explicitly targeting Iranian energy and infrastructure, he instantly dashed hopes of a quick de-escalation. The result? Brent crude violently spiked back above $109, WTI surged, and US stock futures took a heavy hit. The geopolitical risk premium didn’t just return—it took the steering wheel. Here is why this escalation matters for your portfolio and why the “buy the dip” crowd might be misreading the macro setup. 1️⃣ The "Victory" Disconnect & The Oil Shock Retail traders often look at po
TOPAdding XOM as a hedge; oil spike feels sticky.[强]
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04-04
Rocket Lab ($RKLB) Rebounds 11% — But Is a Trillion-Dollar SpaceX IPO a Catalyst or a Liquidity Black Hole? Rocket Lab ($RKLB) has been on a wild ride this month, extending a strong 11% rebound this week and currently fighting to hold structural support above $65. After spooking retail investors with a massive $1 billion At-The-Market (ATM) offering in mid-March, the stock is proving its resilience as the undisputed "No. 2 player" in commercial space. But while the chart looks primed to test the critical $70 resistance, a massive shadow is looming over the entire sector: the growing rumors of a trillion-dollar SpaceX IPO. Here is why this setup is the ultimate test of conviction for space investors, and what the smart money is watching right now. 1️⃣ Digesting the $1 Billion ATM Offering W
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04-04
Mag7 "Tech Fatigue" Not Necessarily "Tech Winter" More Likely "Tech Recalibration"
It is understandable to feel some "tech fatigue" right now. Seeing the market leaders—the engines that drove 2025 — suddenly stalling while geopolitical headlines dominate the ticker is enough to make any investor second-guess their thesis. However, based on current market behavior in early April 2026, we are not necessarily looking at a "tech winter" so much as a tech recalibration. Here is the breakdown of how the Mag 7 trend is likely to play out through the end of Q2 and what it means for your portfolio. The Geopolitical "Tax": Iran and the Strait of Hormuz The volatility you’re seeing is largely a "geopolitical premium" being priced in. The Energy Link: With the conflict in Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices are spiking. For the Mag 7, this is not just about fuel — i
TOPSpot on! Recalibration over winter makes total sense. Energy spike is a real drag.[看涨]
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04-04
AMD Clears $213 Resistance — Is the MI300X Finally Breaking Nvidia’s Shadow? AMD just flashed a major technical breakout, closing up nearly 3.5% at $217.50 and decisively slicing through the stubborn $213 resistance zone. For months, retail traders have treated AMD as merely a "sympathy play" to Nvidia's massive runs, but the ongoing AI compute demand narrative is starting to justify AMD's own premium valuation. Here is why this breakout matters, how the fundamental story is shifting, and what traders need to watch as we approach the critical $220 test. 1️⃣ The MI300X Reality Check: Inference is the Real Battleground Everyone knows the AI training market belongs to Nvidia, but AMD is aggressively carving out a highly lucrative niche in the inference market. Demand for MI300X orders remains
TOPAMD's breakout looks solid, mate! I'm buying on dips and watching $220. [OK]
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04-04
Tesla’s Q1 Shock: 358K Deliveries Miss the Mark — Where is the Real Bottom? The numbers are in, and they are undeniably ugly. Tesla just reported Q1 global deliveries of 358,000 vehicles, severely whiffing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 372,000. This isn’t just a minor rounding error; it marks one of the weakest quarters in recent memory and signals a drastic shift in the EV momentum trade. With the stock facing heavy institutional distribution, the entire market is asking the million-dollar question: is the growth story fundamentally broken, or is this peak pessimism? Here is why this miss is structurally significant, and what the smart money is watching before attempting to catch this falling knife. 1️⃣ The "Price Cut" Strategy Has Lost Its Magic For the past year, the retail bull t
TOPHolding off for now, support needs to prove itself first.[看跌]
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04-04
Q1 Left Us Bruised — Will Q2 Bring a Breakout or a Breakdown? Q1 2026 was a brutal masterclass in market chop. Between unexpected geopolitical shocks, sticky inflation data, and vicious sector rotations whipping portfolios back and forth, many traders are just happy to have survived. But with the S&P 500 stubbornly holding its ground near 6,580 and the Nasdaq digesting its gains around 21,800, the board is officially resetting. The question now isn't about what happened in Q1—it’s about how you are positioning for the Q2 catalyst. Here is what active traders need to know as we transition into the new quarter, and where the smart money is quietly hunting for alpha. 1️⃣ The Q1 Digestion Phase Was Necessary Let’s be honest: the market came into 2026 running way too hot. Q1 acted as a nece
TOPTesla's oversold now, my top pick for Q2![看涨]
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04-04
$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold hit its former support level turned resistance. Look at the chart it is all technical, it hit its 200 moving average and bounced and not hitting resistance. In the short term it will be heading downwards but in a mid to longer time frame I remain bullish for gold given US will lower interest rates and loosen monetary policy, Trump is request USD 1.5 trillion dollars for their defense budget it is a 40% increase, where do you think that money will come from? It will come in the expense of devaluation of the dollar. In the short term I expect it hitting his 200 day moving average about 4150 - 4200 range before bouncing up again. the
TOPI'm holding as well, bullish long-term![看涨]
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04-04
Nothing screams “forward-looking markets” like building earnings models in a calm, pre-war fantasy… right before the U.S. decides to take a swing at Iran and set the oil market on fire. We’ve seen this play out before. The Gulf War, the Iraq War—same pattern every time. Initial shrug, then oil spikes, then inflation creeps in, margins get squeezed, and suddenly everyone rediscovers the concept of “second-order effects.” Even smaller shocks like the 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack were enough to remind the world how fragile energy supply really is. And now we’re playing games around the Strait of Hormuz—that tiny little artery carrying roughly 20% of global oil. Disrupt that, and it’s not just crude prices. It’s shipping delays, insurance spikes, fertilizer costs, airline margins, food inflation
TOPSpot on! Oil shocks ripple everywhere, brace for the bleed.[惊讶]
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04-04
$CapLand Ascott T(HMN.SI)$ SI) All the gains returning back! She is back to 89.5 cents! Yield is about 6.81%. Annual dividend of 6.1 cents. Total Assets 8.9b. 103 properties in 16 countries! Solid! This year they sent 1 big booklet plus another letter, wasting so much paper and money on printing! AGM is on 23rd April 2PM at Sands Expo and Convention Centre. Likely snacks plus drinks provided!Do take note! Hosey! She is back to 99 cents, looks rather bullish! Likely to test 1.01 soon! Next 1.05 than 1.10. Pls dyodd. CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS) achieved an 11% year-on- year (y-o-y) increase in income available for distribution to S$256.7 million for the financial year ended 31 December 2025 (FY 2025), as it marks its 20th anniversa
TOPSolid move! Targeting 1.01 soon, dividend sweetener.[看涨]
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04-05
Warren Buffett's Empty Hook: Is He Waiting for Big Discounts? 🌟🌟🌟If you are staring at the S&P500 and wondering why Warren Buffett has not pulled the trigger yet, you are not alone. While the rest of us are buying the dip in April he is saying no to "bottom fishing". Despite sitting on a monstrous, record breaking cash pile of USD 380 billion, Warren Buffett is choosing to wait. For the Oracle of Omaha, a Big Decline isn't just a red day. It is a fundamental restructuring of the market. What a Big Decline Actually Means for Me When the market drops another 10% to 20% it is more than just shrinking numbers. It is a valuation reset that cleans out the expensive AI hype froth. The Yield Boost: As prices fall, dividend yields instantly rise. The de
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04-05
SpaceX's Secret IPO Filing Ignites Space Materials Boom: Who Wins Big? Advanced materials are the cornerstone of space technology development. The space technology field has extremely high requirements for material properties such as strength, hardness, high-temperature resistance, and corrosion resistance. Materials in space technology and aerospace can be categorized into specialty metals, specialty polymers, ceramics, special coatings, power semiconductor materials, energy materials, and other types. Recent geopolitical disruptions have made supply chain security issues increasingly severe, giving related companies more scarcity value. Taking SpaceX as an example, its essential materials include niobium metal, titanium alloys, and coatings. While Starship eliminated carbon fiber, it rem
TOPTeledyne is a gem in space materials! Buy the dip.[看涨]
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04-05
Now, China has its own oil majors, just like the Americans. But we’d argue the Chinese names offer a better value proposition for investors. Why? Higher dividend yields. Oil prices have stayed elevated since the Iran War started. And for upstream oil & gas companies, this is great news — the oil they pump out of the ground is suddenly worth a lot more. Sell at higher prices, profit margins widen. Simple. But it’s less fortunate for downstream players — refineries and petrol retailers — because their cost of fuel has gone up. So no, it’s not the entire oil and gas industry that benefits from high oil prices. The distinction matters. Take ExxonMobil. The dividend yield is just 2.4%. And after a 30% dividend withholding tax, investors are left with roughly 1.7%. Compare that to China’s oi
TOPSpot on! China's oil majors are a bargain with those juicy dividends.[强]
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04-05
Latest SpaceX is looking to IPO this year and it is shaping up to be the largest IPO in history. Reports suggest a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion—eclipsing even Saudi Aramco’s record debut in 2019. The company could raise as much as $75 billion in the process. Naturally, investors are scrambling for exposure. But since SpaceX is still private, you can’t just buy the stock. So the next best thing? SpaceX proxies—stocks, ETFs, and funds that have a stake in SpaceX or are in business with the company. Besides SpaceX, Other like DXYZ stock also holds other marquee names like Databricks, xAI, Revolut, and OpenAI. So if you want broader exposure to high-growth private ventures beyond just SpaceX, this may interest you. This means investors are paying significantly more to own the underlying p
TOPThat SpaceX weighting in DXYZ is huge! Premium's too steep for me, though.[疑问]
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04-05
[42] GIS, MS, RCL
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
TOPThat 277 level is the real make or break now, mate.[看涨]
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04-05
(Part 3 of 5) - S&P500 technical analysis (06Apr2026)
Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Apr2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 has completed a bottom cross-over, and this can be the start of an uptrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at -0.27, indicating there is more selling momentum than buying pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has moved below the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bearish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to slope downward for the first time in recent months, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish techn
TOPSolid analysis! Slightly bullish on SPY as well.[看涨]
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04-05
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse - Layoffs, AI Data Centre, Private Credit - canary (06Apr2026)
My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies AMAZON JUST EXECUTED 16,000 WORKERS WHILE BURNING $200 BILLION ON AI INFRASTRUCTURE We are expecting more layoff news to come. Let us monitor and hedge accordingly. Private Credit - a canary in the Financial coalmine? The Private Credit sector continues to leak confidence with withdrawal limits and default news. Will this trip up the market? Probably. Data Centre updates Half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn’t have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely on imports. - Bloomberg Outdated electricity grids are now a “national security risk,” JPMorgan has said. The promised AI of a multi
TOPAI delays are worrying. Solid advice on hedging! [OK]
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04-06
AMD's Renaissance: Record Revenue Meets AI Supercycle 🌟🌟🌟$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
TOPAMD's smashing it! Great hold for the long run.[看涨]