To The Moon

🌍 1. A World with No Easy Choices The global economic environment is currently shaped by rising geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict involving Iran. At the center of the issue is a difficult dilemma for the United States: either withdraw and risk losing influence over a key global oil route, or escalate the conflict and face the possibility of a long and costly war. Both options carry serious consequences, making the situation highly uncertain and difficult to resolve.  ⸻ ⚖️ 2. The U.S. Caught in a Strategic Dilemma The United States faces a “catch-22” situation. If it pulls back, Iran could gain control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments, giving it major economic power. However, if the U.S. escalates militarily, it risks entering a challenging gro

Market Overview Major U.S. stock indexes mostly ​fell on Monday(Mar 30) as U.S. President Donald Trump's new warning to Tehran and a widening of the Middle East ‌war offset optimism over his comments on U.S. discussions with Iran. Regarding the options market, a total volume of 57,089,345 contracts was traded. Top 10 Option Volumes Source: Tiger Trade App $Intel(INTC)$ shares fell 5% as a report emerged that took the IBOT(Intel Binary Optimization Tool) for a test drive, and the results did not exactly inspire confidence. Indeed, investors do not seem nearly as confident in Intel as they once were. There are 504.08K $Intel(INTC)$ option contracts traded on Monday, up 32% from the previous trading day

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Green Path: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (1) large gap-up to open the last trading sessions of March, as well as first quarter. (2) 6440 will serve as a MAJOR resistance and I think it will stop today's rebounds. (3) also, the hand-pointed trendline would serve as strong support--btw, gap-fill is possible. As expected, the LARGE opening gap is alomst closed. Now, large chopping sideway moves btw 6440 and 6360; Nimble traders would make money by trading both ways. 6388 PIN: (1) dragged by two forces between 6440 and 6360, there won't be any breakthrough today. (2) I would bet that SPX closes near 6388, with chopping moves in-between for the next four hours. (3) will tra

Stopped trading $Robinhood(HOOD)$ at the end of January. It is down 40% since. Not touching it yet. Monthly chart is still showing a bear cycle. Until that flips there is nothing to do here. The level to watch is $70. If that breaks we have a volume gap all the way down to $40. I am not looking for a short term bounce. Bounces in bear cycles are traps. You buy it. It fades. You hold the bag. I am waiting for the full cycle shift back to bull before I even think about an entry. Buying dips in a bear cycle feels smart. It rarely ends that way. I will be waiting for confirmation of a rotation on the MBX For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stock

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 📉📊⚠️ $SPX Component Put Buying Hits June 2025 Extremes as Market Tests Structural Support 📉📊⚠️ I’m seeing a decisive shift from passive hedging into active downside demand, with SPX component option buyers driving the 10-day buy-to-open put/call ratio back to June 2025 pessimism extremes. Equity-only ratios printing 1.21–1.46 confirm this is institutional flow asserting itself, not retail-driven noise. I’m tying this directly to post-OPEX positioning dynamics. As dealer gamma rolls off and exposure flips, hedging flows stop dampening volatility and start amplifyi

$Alcoa(AA)$ $Century Aluminum(CENX)$  $Kaiser Aluminum(KALU)$  ⚠️📈 Aluminium Shockwave: Geopolitics Reprices the Curve, Not Just the Spot ⚡🌍 Aluminium is transitioning from a cyclical commodity move into a geopolitical pricing regime shift. LME three-month aluminium surged nearly 5% on 30Mar26, printing highs around $3,492 per tonne. That level matters not just technically, but structurally. The market is no longer reacting to headlines. It is actively repricing supply security risk into the forward curve. This rally is extending beyond a simple disruption trade. Iranian strikes impacting Gulf infrastructure, including Emirates Global Aluminium’

Called the $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ trap weeks ago. Stock is now down 15% from that breakout. Here is what is happening. We are in a bear cycle. The monthly chart confirms it. In a bear cycle every bounce is a trap. Retail sees a bottom. Institutions see an exit. That bounce up to $170 I was watching did not even fully play out. The rejection last month was not a good sign. Worst case from here is another 30% down. That puts price around $80 after filling the volume gap. So what do we do? We wait. No buying. No bottom guessing. No being exit liquidity for the people selling into your confidence. When our bull cycle criteria is met again we will look to buy at a significant discount. Until then the trade is patience. For SG users only, We

$Micron Technology(MU)$ $MU spent 2 months distributing to retail. Big players don't sell into panic. They sell into your confidence. This is why we said buying $MU wasn't a great idea Been bearish on $MU for a month. Called the pullback to $320. Now our short term signal is showing a re-entry. Historically this setup has a 70% win rate. If $MU is going to bounce, it's right now That said, I am not taking it. Here is why: I did not profit on the previous bull cycle. Taking the bounce now means I am chasing the tail end of a move I already missed. That is not how you trade a system. You take every signal or you take none. The moment you start picking which ones feel right you are no longer trading rules. You are trading emotions. We have no idea whic

Many investors pay attention to the wrong variables. Here’s a list of what doesn’t matter, what matters somewhat, and what actually drives returns: Doesn’t really matter: •Market cap •Country company is listed •Share price •Dividend yield Matters somewhat: •Sector •FCF yield •Revenue growth •Insider ownership / owner operator Matters the most: •Return on capital •Margin expansion •Pricing power •Reinvestment runway What would you add? For examples： 1. $Qualys(QLYS)$ Qualys is just one of a number of companies now seeing an all time high FCF yield. The market is pricing in less future growth and a lot of uncertainty. But are they mistaken? 2. $Adobe(ADBE)$ Adobe's free cash flow yield is significantly abov

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is breaking down fast right now. We topped around $690–$697 and have now lost key supports at $677, $652, and $635 today. We’re now trading near $631…and there’s not much support below. The next major level is $620 for me. That’s the first real zone where buyers should step in. Below that? $600 becomes the magnet. Here’s how I see it: 70% chance we test $620 30–40% chance we break under $600 Right now, momentum is bearish. But the reaction at $620 is everything. If buyers step in strong → we bounce. If not → this accelerates fast to $600. Macro matters here too. War = uncertainty Uncertainty = volatility Volatility = downside pressure I still believe the market likely finds a bottom in March/April if this conflict