To The Moon

A potential Warsh-style appointment would likely increase volatility before it calms markets, not reduce it. Fed independence risk Kevin Warsh is widely viewed as more hawkish and more openly critical of unconventional monetary policy. Markets would initially interpret his appointment as signalling tighter financial conditions and a lower tolerance for inflation risk. More importantly, the optics matter. Given Donald Trump’s past public pressure on the Federal Reserve, any nominee perceived as politically aligned raises concerns about institutional independence. That perception alone can unsettle both bonds and equities, even before any policy change occurs. Market reaction: calm or chaos? Short term, this would likely heighten uncertainty. Bond yields could rise on fears of tighter policy

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  This is ultimately a capital allocation and timing question, not a demand question. Can AWS absorb a hypothetical US$50B OpenAI-style bet? From an operating standpoint, yes. Amazon generates enough operating cash flow for AWS to sustain heavy investment without existential strain. The issue is free cash flow optics, not balance-sheet survival. A deal of this size would front-load cash outflows while monetisation lags, temporarily compressing FCF and keeping investors focused on capex discipline rather than growth acceleration. However, if structured partly through equity, long-dated commitments, or capacity-sharing agreements, the near-term FCF hit could be softened. AWS’s scale gives it flexibility smaller hyperscalers do

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  Yes, this looks closer to an overreaction than a thesis break, but the entry decision depends on time horizon. What actually disappointed the market The fundamentals were solid. Growth did not slow. The sell-off was driven by expectations, not results. Buy-side positioning had priced in near-flawless AI execution. When management flagged ongoing supply-chain and capacity constraints, the market recalibrated near-term AI monetisation, even though demand remains clearly intact. That distinction matters. Is the AI story impaired? No. Microsoft is demand-constrained, not demand-challenged. Azure’s 38% growth confirms AI workloads are scaling rapidly. The issue is delivery timing. Revenue is being deferred, not lost. That is a v

Here is a concise, direct view within the limit. 1. Microsoft at $400? Yes, as a dip-buy. Microsoft sold off on timing concerns, not demand weakness. Azure growth confirms AI traction. $400 is a reasonable accumulation level for long-term investors, though not a short-term bottom call. 2. Can Meta be chased after +10%? No. Meta Platforms is executing well, but post-rally risk-reward is less attractive. Better to wait for consolidation than chase momentum. 3. Apple says memory costs are fine. Why no stock move? Because the market wants growth catalysts, not cost reassurance. Apple is stable, but AI monetisation and services acceleration remain incremental, not transformative yet. 4. Will Tesla deliver in 2026? Unclear, execution-heavy. Tesla still has a compelling narrative, but repeated t

So I've spent a good six months now learning as much as I can about the mining and oil and gas sectors. These are clearly counter cyclical stocks. Brought into $Santana Minerals Ltd(SMI.AU)$  about a year ago, and watched it go nuts. About 6 months ago I also brought into $SILVER MINES LTD(SVL.AU)$  and it's done nicely too, even after the crashes the last few days. I am a bull on mining and oil and gas going forward. So much so that I have divested most of my dividend stocks to go counter cyclical. Was I crazy buying into $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$   and $Pan American Silver(PAAS)$

There appears to be a pivot away from stocks in the SAAS sector which used to trade at very high multiples due to expectations of strong growth to more moderate growth, and MSFT appears to be a casualty of that. AI is here to stay but whether users will pay enough to cover the investment costs are a key unknown, especially when depreciation or AI hardware depreciates more rapidly than expected.

🌟🌟🌟With President Trump officially nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair to replace Jerome Powell in May, markets are entering a new phase of policy reassessment.  Warsh has long been viewed as a hawk - attentive to inflation risks and cautious about excess liquidity.  However his record shows a more situational and pragmatic approach. During the 2008 financial crisis, he was one of the earliest voices inside the Fed calling for swift meaningful rate cuts to stabilise the system.  That flexibility is why his nomination is generating mixed reactions.  Warsh's experience and credibility may help steady markets.  His historical hawkishness raises questions about the future rate path.  However Warsh was nominated by President Trump who prefers l

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has sent shockwaves through the precious metals market, triggering a historic sell-off that forced gold to surrender the $5,000 level The market is split into two camps following the breach of this psychological floor; bulls argue for a rapid reclaim toward $6,200, while bears insist the Warsh Effect marks the definitive end of the gold rally UBS maintains that this plunge below $5,000 is a temporary liquidation event before an eventual climb to $6,200; the bank cite long-term global instability as a reason for prices to recover Cathie Wood and other skeptics view the move as proof that a hawkish Fed will crush the gold bubble; they argue that a stronger dollar and high real rates make previous gains in gold unsustainable Whether gold can fight ba

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  $Apple(AAPL)$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   The recent Mag 7 earnings have turned the tech sector into a battleground, with high expectations clashing against capital expenditure realities, raising concerns about the AI tax on balance sheets。。。 Microsoft (MSFT) plunged -12%, sparking debates on whether the crash is an overreaction and $400 is a good "dip-buy" level for long-term entry, with some fearing deeper, unresolved issues Meta Platforms (META) surged +10%, leading the market to assess if it is still worth chasing; Apple (AAPL) remai

$CME Bitcoin - main 2602(BTCmain)$ $Bitwise XRP ETF(XRP)$  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  📉🔥 Metals Flushed Yesterday. Crypto Liquidated Today. Global Risk Reset in Motion. 🔥📉 I’m watching a full cross-asset deleveraging wave hit markets in real time. Metals liquidated first, now crypto follows with aggressive forced unwinds as leverage gets purged and liquidity pockets get raided across majors. Crypto never trades in isolation. This is macro repositioning, volatility expansion, liquidity drain and risk regime repricing colliding simultaneously. 🚨 Crypto Damage Snapshot 🟥 $BTC −7.9% 🟥 $ETH −11.5% 🟥 $SOL −13% 🟥 $DOGE −12%+ 🟥 $XRP −9%+ This

On Friday, President Donald Trump tapped Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, ending a prolonged saga that plunged the central bank into rare and unprecedented turmoil. Let me break down the U.S. stocks associated with him. Warsh has been a partner and advisor at Duquesne Family Office since 2011. This family office is well known—its founder, Stanley Druckenmiller, is famous for his aggressive, high-conviction, all-in style of investing. The most recent holdings we can find are from their 2025 Q3 disclosure: Top 10 Core Holdings $Natera(NTRA)$  – ~US$517 million (12.74%) Increased by 129,300 shares in Q3. A core healthcare holding, betting on greater penetration of genetic testing.

Storage's Earnings Week: A Valuation X-Ray of Top Names This week (the Jan 27–29 earnings window), the storage complex delivered a highly consistent message to the market: across HDD (nearline), NAND/eSSD, and DRAM/HBM, the industry's "supply discipline + extended visibility from large customers: is pushing the cycle from a "rebound" toward a "repricing" phase.  The most important point of resonance across several research notes this week is that multiple companies are stressing that 2026 capacity is largely locked in/sold out—and some are already talking about 2027—which is not typical in a standard memory/storage cycle. A Valuation Look-Through Memory names (DRAM/NAND) are still mostly single-digit to low-teens forward P/E (≈8–13x) despite sharply higher run-rate earnings. Especiall

🌟🌟🌟Bitcoin has slipped below USD 80,000, a brutal 30% drawdown from its October peak - the kind of fall that shakes even the strongest hand.  This time, the fear isn't retail panic.  It is institutional hesitation. 3 straight months of USD 4.8 billion in net outflows from US listed Bitcoin ETFs - the longest streak since launch.  This has drained confidence and liquidity.  While Bitcoin bleeds, Gold is surging, pulling capital toward the oldest safe haven away from the newest. This is not a quiet correction.  This is a sentiment reset.  Is This A Deeper Shift In Institutional Appetite? Maybe.  Institutions do not panic, they reposition.  ETFs outflows tell a story :  Risk appetite is cooling.  Macro uncertainty is rising.  Gold is recl