To The Moon

So I've spent a good six months now learning as much as I can about the mining and oil and gas sectors. These are clearly counter cyclical stocks. Brought into $Santana Minerals Ltd(SMI.AU)$  about a year ago, and watched it go nuts. About 6 months ago I also brought into $SILVER MINES LTD(SVL.AU)$  and it's done nicely too, even after the crashes the last few days.

I am a bull on mining and oil and gas going forward. So much so that I have divested most of my dividend stocks to go counter cyclical.

Was I crazy buying into $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$   and $Pan American Silver(PAAS)$   last week At record highs. Well the thing is, I don't care what the price of copper, silver or gold does short term. It's irrelevant.

Santana and silver mines were a move to by silver and gold land banks. Neither are mining yet. But both have the rights to significant proven deposits of each resource. So the potential for far greater returns over holding gold and silver directly are clear to me. But no dividends I'd invisage for at least 5 years.

Hence i brought pan American. It does pay a respectable dividend and it's a great play on gold and silver. So no matter what the price of either gold or silver, I will still get a nice return that will cover my cost of capital going forward. Regardless of capital appreciation. The thing I really like though is the two mines they have in two countries that have the rights, but not the consents yet to mine. Hence these assets are not recognized on the balance sheet. So to me, paas is not a cyclical investment. Its actually a value investment.

But value depends on gold and silver continuing to climb. Why? Consents get way easier when a government that clips the mining ticket sees huge dollars. And the dollars are massive even after the "correction" last week.

But I am confident gold, silver, and all other resource stocks will go nuts this year. That's why I also brought back into bhp and Exxon. Bhp is a copper, iron ore, zinc and coal miner, and Exxon obviously is oil and gas. Also started a position in a uranium stock.

The so called free fall, well it's total nonsense. It's a paper free fall. It's meaningless. I'd love to test it. Buy a silver future, give the trading house my address and tell them to deliver it to me On expiration. Oh wait, they actually don't own the silver. Another test would be to go buy and ounce of silver, could you get it for $80 bucks right now? I think it mite actually cost you $120, or more.

Gold is a bit different, it's tied to currency not use. Silver and copper on the other hand are tied to use. We currently use way more copper and silver than we mine. Economics 101 when demand exceeds supply the price goes up. We need ALOT more silver and copper mines Today to address today's shortfall. I'm informed setting up a new silver mine takes about 15 years, hmmmmm. 

We also need power, ALOt more now. We need more nuclear power plants, again takes along time to build one, lots of concrete and steel too. Solar is quicker, but making solar power requires coal. Wind power is also quicker, but you need oil, steel, and a host of other metals. The latter two also need battery storage solutions, hmmm so zinc or lithium mite be a biggie there.

I am the emotional investor. I'm not that focused on past performance of stocks I buy. I buy stocks for their future potential, and ones that have great management teams delivering on that potential. I am in space stocks, Ai and chip stocks, Data center stocks, power stocks, and miners. It's the whole value chain.

It's not quite that simple though, IBM was once the most amazing computer stock, now it's not. Finding the diamonds in the ruff is still the key. $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$  has more than 20x for me, $45 billion market cap now. I was buying at a $2 billion market cap. Is therefore firefly at a $4 billion ish market cap the next to rocket? 2 fails, 2 partials, and 2 successful rocket launches in the last three years. Sorry It's not even close to a buy, at best it's a wait and see. 

There are literally hundreds of mining stocks out there. I picked 5 that suit my investment thesis. Paid top dollar to start a position in a couple last week. But that's totally irrelevant when I look at my long term ideology. 

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