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01-10
$Apple(AAPL)$ 1. What is driving the recent pullback Apple has now traded lower for seven consecutive sessions, with the stock down roughly 4–5 per cent from recent highs. This streak is the longest in many months and reflects broader sentiment turning cautious. Key near-term drivers include: • Profit-taking and seasonal weakness after strong gains late last year and into early January. • Investor caution over growth sustainability, especially in smartphone markets where demand is moderating in China and elsewhere. • Concerns about margin pressure from rising component costs, notably memory prices, which could weigh on gross margins. • Sector rotation from mega-cap growth stocks into value or cyclicals in the cu
TOPmizzle: Solid take! The dip feels like a buy chance before earnings.[看涨]
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01-10
What Is Driving the Rally in Bank Stocks Earnings Expectations and Strong Financial Results Momentum Analysts expect overall S&P 500 financial earnings to rise around 6.7 per cent year-on-year for the December quarter, supported by solid profitability and credit quality. This has helped underpin bullish sentiment in the sector. Net Interest Margin Expansion and Broad Loan Growth Banks have benefited from a period of higher interest rates throughout 2024–25, which lifted net interest margins (NIM) — the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. Firms are projected to sustain, or even modestly expand, NIM into the current quarter. Resilient Credit Quality and Economic Backdrop Delinquency trends have generally remained benign across consumer a
TOPBank stocks rally solid lah, NIM expansion key driver.[得意]
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01-10
SNDK’s K-line pattern in 2026 SanDisk’s rally fits a bullish flag evolving into a rising channel. A strong impulsive advance was followed by shallow consolidation, with higher lows and controlled volatility. This structure signals continuation rather than distribution. Do stocks ever perfectly match K-line patterns? Rarely. K-line patterns are probabilistic frameworks, not exact templates. Real charts are influenced by algorithms, derivatives flows, and macro noise. Continuation patterns tend to be more reliable than clean reversal patterns. Does memory still have upside in 2026? Yes, structurally. Micron Technology and SK Hynix benefit from tight HBM supply, improved capex discipline, and sustained AI-driven demand. In 2026, returns shift from valuation expansion to earnings delivery, w
TOPYes, memory's upside looks solid in '26, AI demand is key.[看涨]
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01-10
[2] UNH, SNDK, BBAI
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
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01-10
Fed Liquidity, Private‑Sector Deleveraging, and Falling Wages
1. The Federal Reserve Is Re‑Expanding Liquidity Since early December, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by roughly $105 billion, marking the fastest increase since the regional banking turmoil of 2023. This move aims to ease pressure on bank reserves, which had been tightening significantly. St. Louis Federal Reserve Key points The Fed’s balance sheet had fallen by about 30% since 2022, draining liquidity from the system. Facing renewed stress, the Fed resumed injections to stabilize reserves. It is now purchasing around $40 billion in U.S. Treasuries per month, supporting financial markets. Historically, such liquidity waves tend to boost risk appetite and lift asset prices. Bottom line: the Fed has shifted from tightening to quietly re‑adding liquidity. 2. Private‑Secto
TOPSpot on analysis, mate. Liquidity boost masking deeper cracks, markets holding steady for now.[看涨]
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01-11
The rally in bank stocks ahead of earnings season reflects a combination of macro-economic, sector-specific and technical factors rather than a single driver. Shares of major US banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are trading near record highs, and the broader financial sector has lifted the S&P 500 financials index on expectations of stronger profits. Investors are looking through stretched valuations because of optimism about earnings drivers and economic resilience. Key drivers behind the rally Resilient economic backdrop A relatively robust US economy supports banks’ core businesses. Continued growth in consumer spending and nominal GDP tends to underpin credit demand and reduce downside risk to earnings. Improving capital markets
TOPSolid rally in banks, but valuations stretched. Earnings key now.[强]
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01-11
1. With Q4 earnings ahead, will AI orders drive TSMC to new highs? Likely, but not unconditionally. TSMC’s share price has been propelled by AI-related demand for advanced logic and accelerator chips. Analysts and trading data suggest AI infrastructure spending is a central driver behind forward earnings expectations and capacity utilisation. Foundry revenue has expanded strongly on the back of AI chip orders and products built on TSMC’s leading nodes (3nm and 2nm) have high margins and stickier customer demand. Key considerations: AI backlog and advanced nodes: TSMC’s 2nm and advanced CoWoS packaging are core to AI chips for Nvidia, AMD and others, sustaining both revenue and margin leadership. Guidance matters: The next leg higher will depend on guidance around capacity utili
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01-11
I think the single most important variable for crypto in the next year is policy. Crypto is no longer that separate an asset class like stock. It is still back to supply and demand and unlike stocks, crypto do not have fundamental growth potential. The value rose as it gets more scarce. Although it has some use cases, that has yet to fully take off to drive further demand and the price. So, if the US government shifts gears to be less pro-crypto, sentiment and demand will drop. Crypto will be less in demand and liquidity will drop especially with the current already high price that can be prohibitive. Given the volatile nature of crypto, I doubt institutional and retail investors will allocate large portions of their portfolio as many will also keep an eye on policy and the global ec
TOPSpot on! Policy shifts could kill crypto demand. MSTR's overvalued risk is real.[惊讶]
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01-11
If I could only hold one of these stocks through 2026, i’d pick MU because it has the highest EPS. AI and demand for data centres will continue to be one of the top trends for 2026. Memory and storage is set to also be in demand. It’s just that the realisation came a little later than chips. Chips has rallied for most of 2025 and it is clear that shortage of memory might continue well into 2027 as forecast by many analysts. This demand will drive up the price of MU just like how it had happened for Nvidia. Valuation of MU is also lower compared to the chip makers. So, I feel that for 2026, it offers growth potential at a fair value price which means that there is sufficient safety margin for stock price growth and profit for me. @Wayneq
TOPSolid pick! MU's undervalued vs chip giants, data centres will fuel it.[看涨]
510
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01-11
Navigating Alternative Investments: Private Equity and Credit Funds vs. Publicly Traded Managers – Which Delivers Better Returns?
In the evolving landscape of alternative investments, investors face a pivotal choice: direct exposure through private equity (PE) and credit funds, or indirect participation via the stocks of leading alternative asset managers like Blackstone (BX), KKR (KKR), Ares Management (ARES), and Blue Owl Capital (OWL). As of January 2026, with private markets surpassing $13 trillion globally and public managers commanding trillions in assets under management (AUM), this debate is more relevant than ever. Private funds promise potentially higher, illiquid returns tied to underlying assets, while manager stocks offer liquidity, dividends, and leverage to industry growth—but with market volatility.This article examines historical and recent returns, risks, and forward-looking factors to help determin
TOPPublic managers like BX offer better liquidity and solid growth, easy access for gains.[强]
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01-11
Google Flips Apple to Reclaim #2: Is the Sprint to $4T a Buy Signal or a Trap? GOOG $329.89 (+0.23%) | Market Cap: $3.89T The hierarchy of Big Tech just got a massive shake-up. For the first time since 2019, Alphabet (Google) has overtaken Apple to become the world’s second most valuable company, sitting at a staggering $3.89 Trillion valuation. This isn't just a daily fluctuation; it’s a statement. While Apple has been battling hardware cycle fatigue, Google has successfully convinced the market that its AI isn't just a science project—it’s a money printing machine. But with the $4 Trillion milestone looming, traders need to ask: Is this the start of a new dominance cycle, or peak euphoria? 1️⃣ The "AI Divergence" Trade is Real The screenshot highlights "diverging AI paths," and this is t
TOPGoogle's AI edge is solid, but $4T may trigger profit-taking.[看涨]
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01-11
📺 Fox Corporation (FOX / FOXA) — Inflection Analysis
$Fox Corporation Class A(FOXA)$ $Fox Corporation Class B(FOX)$ This is not a dying cable story. Fox is quietly executing a rare combo: ad-cycle dominance + disciplined capital returns. The market worries about cord-cutting. Fox is monetizing attention instead. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Growth, margins, and cash flow are all inflecting higher — driven by sports, politics, and digital scale. Atomic evidence: TV ad revenue +77% YoY (Q3’25, Super Bowl + election cycle) Tubi view time +40% FY2024, now ~2% of total US TV share Distribution revenue +3% despite ~7% linear subscriber decline Television segment EBITDA +87% FY2025 Operating cash flow reached ~$3.3B FY2025 This is a capital-return machin
TOPImpressive ad revenue surge! Fox's buybacks are spot on lah. Bullish![看涨]
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01-12
$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
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Jensen Huang Just Wiped Out Billions in Thermal Stocks — But Was It a Buy Signal? NVIDIA just dropped a nuclear bomb on the cooling industry with a single sentence. Speaking on the future Vera Rubin platform, Jensen Huang said: > "Our future platform is cooled by 45°C warm water. At this temperature, data centers no longer need traditional chillers." > The Market’s Knee-Jerk Reaction: Panic selling. Stocks like Vertiv ($VRT) and other thermal management giants took a nosedive. The logic was simple: "NVIDIA doesn't need cooling anymore = Sell." The Reality: The market is dead wrong. The demand for thermal management isn't disappearing—it's getting more expensive, more complex, and more exclusive. If you understand the physics, yesterday’s crash might be the biggest alpha opportu
TOPSpot on! The panic selling is a golden chance to load up thermal stocks.[看涨]
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01-12
Jensen Huang Just Wiped Out Billions in Thermal Stocks — But Was It a Buy Signal? NVIDIA just dropped a nuclear bomb on the cooling industry with a single sentence. Speaking on the future Vera Rubin platform, Jensen Huang said: > "Our future platform is cooled by 45°C warm water. At this temperature, data centers no longer need traditional chillers." > The Market’s Knee-Jerk Reaction: Panic selling. Stocks like Vertiv ($VRT) and other thermal management giants took a nosedive. The logic was simple: "NVIDIA doesn't need cooling anymore = Sell." The Reality: The market is dead wrong. The demand for thermal management isn't disappearing—it's getting more expensive, more complex, and more exclusive. If you understand the physics, yesterday’s crash might be the biggest alpha opportu
TOPSpot on! The panic selling is a massive buy opportunity for liquid cooling stocks.[强]
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01-12
🚀 Citi’s $5 Trillion Bombshell: Is NVDA’s "Rubin" the Key to the Next Supercycle? $5 Trillion. Let that number sink in. Just when the bears were whispering about "AI fatigue" and "capex cliffs," Citi dropped a massive report suggesting that Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin architecture—the successor to the already-hyped Blackwell—could unlock a $5 trillion artificial intelligence opportunity. If you thought the move from H100 to Blackwell was big, the market is now starting to price in what happens after 2025. Nvidia isn't just selling chips anymore; they are building the industrial foundation of the next decade. But with the stock hovering near $185, is this priced in, or are we staring at the next leg up to $200+? Let’s break down the catalyst, the tech, and the trade. 1️⃣ The "Rubin" Thesis
TOPRubin's a game-changer! NVDA's leading the charge, mate. 🚀
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01-12
(Part 2 of 5) - Earnings Calendar (12Jan2026) - what can Delta Airlines' earnings tell us about the economy>
Earnings Calendar (12Jan2026) In the upcoming week, several major companies are scheduled to report their earnings. Key players include JP Morgan, Delta Air Lines, BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America, TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock. Let us look at Delta Airlines. Airline earnings are often called the "Canary in the Coal Mine" for the global economy. Because the industry is highly cyclical and sensitive to shifts in spending, its financial reports provide a real-time health check on everything from consumer confidence to global trade. Airline earnings act as an economic barometer. Leisure demand reflects consumer spending power, while premium bookings signal corporate confidence. Air cargo volumes track global trade
TOPDelta's numbers are a solid economy barometer, mate. Watching that debt closely.[看涨]
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01-12
(Part 3 of 5) S&P500 outlook (12Jan2026) - All indicators point to ...
Market Outlook of S&P500 (12Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to move in a bullish pattern. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they continue to fan upwards. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.07 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates
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01-12
💳⚡🏛️ Trump’s 10% Credit Shock Sets Off a New Wave of Acronym Trades 🏛️⚡💳
$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ 🏛️ Policy Shock and Liquidity Optics Donald Trump’s call for a 12-month cap of 10% on U.S. credit-card interest rates starting 20Jan26 is one of the most tradeable policy shocks of the year. This is not just a headline. It directly hits bank net interest margins, consumer credit spreads, payment networks, fintech revenue models, and political liquidity optics at the same time Trump is also pushing mortgage-rate suppression via $200B in MBS purchases, $2K tariff rebates as consumer stimulus, and a $1.5T defence pivot. 💳 The Credit System Cannot Clear at 10% U.S. consumer credit runs on risk-based pricing. With today’s d
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Bank Stocks Start 2026 Strong Why bank stocks have been leading again Banks are basically a "macro bundle" in one ticker: growth, rates, credit, and market activity. What has gone right recently is the combo platter: Rates stayed high enough for long enough to keep net interest income resilient, even as investors began to price in eventual cuts. That "not too hot, not too cold" rate path matters more to banks than the absolute level. Credit has not cracked in a way that forces a big spike in provisions, so earnings have looked "boringly dependable," which the market tends to reward when the tape gets crowded in more fragile narratives. Capital markets woke up: underwriting calendars and deal chatter have improved, and early 2026 issuance activity has been busy, which tends to flow through
TOPMacro resilience is key for banks lah! Fee engines firing up nicely.[看涨]