To The Moon

After a week of consolidation, gold $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ brushed off the “risk” of the FOMC rate decision and surged to a fresh record high on Monday night, reaching as high as $3,688/oz. The key question now: when will this rally peak? The answer depends largely on what is driving this move — and who is buying. Understanding these factors helps us determine where we are in the gold cycle. Short-Term Drivers The recent rally is not hard to explain. The main short-term catalysts are: Pricing in a September Fed rate cut Uncertainty around Trump’s policies and tariffs Falling U.S. Treasury yields Geopolitical risk premium Inflation hedging Among these, the September rate cut expectation and policy/tariff uncertainty under Trump are the mo

Investors largely believe that a Federal Reserve rate cut is imminent and have priced it into the market. This expectation, fueled by recent labor market weakness and steady inflation data, has been a key factor driving major U.S. stock indices to all-time highs. What the market seems to have priced in Fed rate cuts are expected As of mid-September 2025, markets are overwhelmingly anticipating a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. There is also expectation of further easing, possibly more cuts before the end of the year. Some of this expectation is already reflected in bond yields, mortgage rates, etc., which have softened ahead of the official decision. Inflation and labor market are moderating, but remain concerns Weakening employment trends are one of the reasons for the bel

Next week marks the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting. Due to the significantly lower-than-expected nonfarm payroll data in August and September, the focus of the Fed’s meeting will be on the magnitude of the rate cut. A 25 basis point cut is market-expected and can be understood as a hawkish cut, not necessarily positive news. A 50 basis point cut would slightly exceed market expectations, so attention should be paid to the Fed Chair’s speech to judge the path and speed of further cuts. If large-scale cuts continue, the market will likely respond enthusiastically.How will U.S. stock indices react to the Fed meeting?Although weak economic data puts fundamental pressure on U.S. stock indices, the considerable room for rate cuts by the Fed means the market has not yet priced i