To The Moon

618 Shopping Festival Performance SummaryGMV reached RMB 35.5 billion during the 618 Shopping Festival, up 35% year-over-year and 11% higher than Double 11 2024This performance was in line with expectations and equaled 71% of GSe's forecasted 2Q25 China smartphone and AIoT revenueHistorical comparison: 69% of 618 in 2024, 59% of 618 in 2023, 66% of Double 11 in 2024Smartphone performance:Ranked #1 in sales and GMV among domestic brands on the Jingdong platform4 of the top 10 best-selling models (Redmi K80, Redmi Turbo 4 Pro, Redmi 14C and Redmi Note 14 Pro)Strong performance in the ultra-high-end market ($6,000+), with the Xiaomi Mi 15 Ultra in the top 10Discount levels remained the same as last year, with an average discount of about 19% (excluding state subsidies), and up to 33% after su

$Uber(UBER)$ Bill Ackman is no stranger to bold moves. As the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, he’s spent the last two decades building a reputation as one of the most daring and polarizing figures in finance. But even for someone known for placing outsized bets on a handful of high-conviction plays, his latest investment might be one of his boldest yet. In early 2025, Ackman disclosed a staggering $2.3 billion position in a company that many investors had long written off as a money-burning punchline: Uber Technologies. This wasn’t a position he tiptoed into—it shot straight to the top of Pershing Square’s portfolio, becoming his largest single holding almost overnight. It also marked the first time Uber had ever appeared in

The market on June 23, 2025, is buzzing with action, driven by geopolitical tensions, surging crude oil prices, and standout sector performances. The Israel-Iran conflict is pushing energy stocks into the spotlight, while defense players like HAL and BEL gain traction amid strategic developments. Meanwhile, technology and fintech sectors are heating up, and dividend-paying stocks offer a steady anchor in this volatile sea. The Nifty 50 is feeling the heat, hovering near its critical support zone of 24,800-24,780—making today a pivotal moment for traders and investors alike. Key Market News & Stocks to Watch Here’s what’s moving the needle today and the stocks you can’t afford to miss: Energy Surge: Rising crude oil prices due to Middle East unrest are boosting stocks like ONGC, a heavy

Trading U.S. stocks is a psychological battlefield where even seasoned investors fall prey to market illusions. These cognitive biases lead to costly mistakes, from chasing euphoric highs to panicking at sudden lows. As of June 23, 2025, the S&P 500 has gained 1.47% year-to-date (YTD), but volatility from geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy shifts highlights the need to recognize these traps. Let’s explores five common market illusions, their impact on trading decisions, and strategies to stay disciplined. Common Market Illusions 1. The Confirmation Bias Trap Investors often seek data that supports their beliefs, ignoring warning signs. In early 2025, many held Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) expecting an AI-driven rally, despite U.S. export curbs to China. AMD’s stock rose 6

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ Circle Internet Financial (CRCL) has ignited a frenzy in the stock market, with its shares surging to dizzying heights. Investors are piling in, drawn by the promise of stablecoins and a shifting regulatory landscape. This post breaks down the meteoric rise of CRCL stock, the forces propelling it forward, and the hurdles that could trip it up. A Rocket-Fueled Rally Image CRCL stock has been nothing short of explosive. Reports highlight jaw-dropping gains: a 25% jump, an 83.2% leap, and even a doubling of its value in a mere five days. This isn’t just hype—it’s a full-on breakout, fueled by a mix of strategic wins and market momentum. What’s driving this surge? Two words: stablecoin supremacy. CRCL, the issuer of the U

When Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest sells a stock, it usually grabs headlines — and sparks debates. This time, the spotlight is on Circle, the stablecoin giant behind USDC. After ARK started offloading Circle shares, investors are asking: Is this a red flag — or a contrarian buying opportunity? Because strangely enough, selling pressure might just set up the next big rally. 💸 Why Is ARK Selling? Cathie Wood’s strategy is high-conviction and actively managed. When ARK reduces a position, it’s often about: Rotating into higher-momentum names Rebalancing after strong gains Managing exposure amid volatility or regulatory risk ARK may be cashing out of Circle as it rallies, or reallocating toward faster-moving plays like AI or next-gen robotics. But remember: ARK’s trades don’t necessarily reflect a

The stock market is full of traps. Not just price drops or earnings misses — but mental illusions that trick even the smartest investors. From overconfidence to herd behavior, we often don’t realize we’re making emotional decisions until it’s too late. The question is: Have you fallen for these classic market illusions? Let’s unpack the most common psychological traps that trip up both beginners and pros. 🧠 1. “I Missed the Bottom” — The Regret Illusion You didn’t buy Nvidia at $100 or Tesla at $150, and now it feels like it’s “too late.” So you hesitate… and miss another run. Truth: The market doesn’t reward perfect timing — it rewards staying in the game. You don’t need to catch the bottom. You just need to participate when conviction is high and risks are managed. 📉 2. “It’s Dropped So

Trading U.S. stocks is a wild ride—one minute you’re riding high on a winning streak, the next you’re second-guessing every move. It’s a battlefield of emotions where illusions lurk around every corner, whispering “I saw this coming” or “Just wait a bit longer.” These mental traps catch even the sharpest traders off guard. So, have you ever fallen for one? Let’s unpack some classic market illusions that might hit a little too close to home—and don’t miss the chance to spill your own “misjudgment” story in the comments! The Mind Games Traders Play These illusions aren’t just mistakes—they’re psychological quirks that twist how we see the market. Here’s a rundown of the big ones: 1. The “Hot Streak” Fallacy Ever nailed a few trades in a row and felt like you cracked the code? That’s the hot

Pop Mart’s stock is sliding, and the once-unstoppable Labubu hype in China seems to be losing steam. When something gets too popular, it often fades just as fast—think fidget spinners or Tamagotchis. With shares continuing to drop, the big questions are: Has Pop Mart peaked? Is Labubu yesterday’s news? And should you short the stock or scoop up the dip? Let’s dive into the data, weigh the risks, and map out a shorting strategy that fits. The Decline: What’s Driving Pop Mart Down? Pop Mart, the Chinese toy giant behind the “blind box” craze, has been a darling of collectors and investors alike. But the cracks are showing: Stock Slump: The stock has shed over 16% from its recent highs, hovering around 235 HKD. That’s a steep fall for a company that once seemed untouchable. Labubu Hype Fading

Bitcoin's fall below $100,000 amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty suggests that the broader cryptocurrency and financial markets are reacting defensively. Here’s an analysis of the situation and factors to consider before deciding on your investment strategy: --- 1. Is It a Dip-Buying Opportunity? Bullish Perspective: Bitcoin is often seen as a store of value during times of geopolitical instability. Once the initial panic subsides, its price could rebound as investors seek a hedge against traditional market risks, such as rising inflation or currency devaluation. Bearish Perspective: Heightened volatility in traditional markets could lead to further sell-offs in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s sharp correction might signal a broader downtrend

Earnings Calendar (23Jun25) I am interested in the earnings announcements from Nike, Micron, FactSet and FedEx. Let us look at the performance of FedEx. The stock price has fallen 9.0% from a year ago. The Technical Analysis has recommended a “Strong Buy”. From the Analysts’ sentiment, there is a “Buy” recommendation. The price target of $272.16 suggests an upside of 20.41%. Observations of FedEx’s performance: The revenue of FedEx has grown from $47.5 billion (2015) to $87.6 billion (2024). The 10-year median margin of gross profit is at 21.3%. The 10-year median margin of FCF is 2.0%, but there is a strong 15.7% 10-year CAGR. Operating profit has grown from $2.1 billion (2015) to $6.2 billion (2024). Earnings per share grew from $3.65 (2015) to $17.21 (2024). Dividends per share gre

Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Jun25) Technical observations: MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming. Ranging sideways can be a possible scenario, too. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a reversal to the downtrend is coming. Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term. The CMF is positive at 0.07, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. The daily interval is showing a “Buy" rating for the S&P 500 index. 12 indicators show a “Buy” rating, and 5 indicators show a “Sell” rating. Here are the recent candlestick patterns. Outlook and Implications (from Grok) Short-Term Outlook: Th

My Investing Muse (23Jun25) Layoffs & Closure news Government jobs are falling: 22,000 federal government jobs were lost in May, the most in at least 4 years. This marks the 4th consecutive monthly decline. Year-to-date, federal government jobs have declined by 59,000, to 2.96 million, the lowest since November 2024. By comparison, the 2015-2019 average was ~2.80 million. According to Reuters estimates, over 260,000 federal workers have been fired, taken buyouts, or retired early this year. The federal workforce is shrinking. - X user The Kobeissi Letter US job numbers have been revised down by a massive 219,000 so far in 2025. April -30,000 March -108,000 February -49,000 January -32,000 22 out of the last 28 months have been revised down since the beginning of 2023. - X user Global M

The crypto market just got a jolt. Following President Trump’s confirmation of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military installations, Bitcoin took a dive below $100K, only to claw its way back above $101K within a day. This wild swing has traders buzzing: is this a golden dip-buying opportunity, or a warning sign of more turbulence ahead? With geopolitical tensions simmering and crypto stocks in the spotlight, let’s dive into the chaos and figure out what’s worth your money. The Drop and Bounce: What Happened? Bitcoin’s price action was a textbook response to global uncertainty. The airstrikes sent shockwaves through risk assets, dragging Bitcoin down 4% to $98,615 in a matter of hours. Stocks and crypto weren’t alone—panic selling hit hard, with over $700 million in liquidations across the ma

Is there such a thing? My dumbest move is my smartest move and vice verse? [Facepalm]  [LOL]  [Tongue]  It's somehow true. I wrote about it in another topic.  Why is the move dumb? I simply follow what ARK does, just the opposite direction. It's a no-brainer. Whenever aunt Cathie sells, I positioned myself to buy. She buys, I plan to sell. It obviously works for$Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$  when I made close to 200% in a day. It works not as effectively for Tesla though. It should have worked too but my Call option was too short dated and ran out of time to benefit from the subsequent price explosion 💥 that my charts had foretold.  Ahhh... that brings me to the smartest part of the whole sche