To The Moon

Both are Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies with strong growth, but they operate in different sectors—Mixue in beverages and Pop Mart in pop culture toys. Mixue Group (2097.HK) Business: Operates over 46,000 stores globally, selling affordable bubble tea, ice cream, and coffee under a franchise model. Financials: For 2024, revenue rose 22% to 24.8 billion yuan ($3.42 billion USD), with net profit up 40% to 4.5 billion yuan ($613 million USD). Its IPO on March 3, 2025, raised $444 million, and the stock has climbed significantly since debut. Strengths: Low-price model thrives in cost-conscious markets, with rapid expansion across Asia. High profit margins and strong returns reflect efficiency. Risks: Recent listing means a short public track record. It’s exposed to commodity price swings (e

I think $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ made a masterful move this week. It announced the $32 billion acquisition of Wiz, the cloud security firm.I’m not a cybersecurity or cloud security expert, so I won’t play on here. Everything I’ve read is this is a high price but a potentially valuable asset for Google Cloud to have in the market.What may matter most about this deal is whether or not it gets through regulators. Under the Biden Administration, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ was blocked from buying Roomba, $Spirit AeroSystems(SPR)$ couldn’t merge with JetBlue, and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(M

Last night, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts coming into the U.S. This isn’t surprising or out of left field, but the market seems to be surprised it’s now reality and not a negotiating tactic.If there’s a place to test the impact of tariffs, it’s in the auto industry. Higher costs won’t slowly be rolled out, like they may with tariffs on avocados, and vehicles are a discressionary purchase. They’ll likely hit stocker prices within the next month.What will customers do if the price of a vehicle rises $3,000 to $10,000, as some project?How will dealers and automakers adapt?It’s likely we see fewer sales because prices will go up. That said, the impact of imports will likely be lower than auto loans nearly doubling. And that didn’t cripple the industry.Ma

1.No Equity Risk Premium, no problem?(albeit to be fair the marginal buyer at the moment probably doesn't even know what an ERP is!)Image2.The best vs the worst of Global EquitiesKinda looks like a turning point... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$Image3."bull markets grow on doubt and wither once hype takes hold..."Image4.No Credit Risk PremiumUS assets are priced for perfection, but we are in an imperfect world.Sometimes very low credit spreads represents confidence, other times it represents complacency.I

There’s not one metric that makes a company investable. Here are some of the quantitative and qualitative factors I consider when analysing a companyQuantitativeConsistently high return on capital Consistently high FCF growth rate Expanding profit margins (operating efficiency)Prudent and sustainable approach to SBC, buybacks and dividendsCapital and asset lightAffordable debtQualitativeRecurring revenuesAffordable product that customers are highly dependent on (ideally mission critical) and unlikely to be cut during a downturnSales not highly cyclical Product not overly reliant on raw materials and therefore profitability not tied to commodity cycles Barriers to entry and barriers to scale

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity assets showed lackluster performance overall. Greater China stocks experienced a notable pullback, with the Hang Seng Tech Index—previously the strongest performer—dropping over 4%. The CSI 300, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index also saw significant declines. In contrast, U.S. stocks temporarily stabilized and remained volatile, ultimately closing slightly higher for the week. Year-to-date, Greater China, Europe, and other non-U.S. markets have significantly outperformed U.S. equities. Key Market Themes FOMC Review: Slower Balance Sheet Reduction Can’t Mask Stagflation Risks, Feigned Calm Won’t Alleviate Macro Concerns Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting proceeded as expected, with most a