To The Moon

Wary of geopolitical uncertainties, markets tend to shift towards defense sector. Stay calm and continue to trade.

bank earnings season is kicking off right now, and honestly, I'm pretty optimistic about what the big six – JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley – are likely to deliver for the first quarter of 2026. Analysts are calling for overall profits to rise around 5% year-over-year across the group. Revenues should grow in the mid-to-high single digits for most of them, which isn't flashy but feels reliable in today's environment.What’s driving this? Net interest income (that sweet spread between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits) is still holding up nicely thanks to rates that, while lower than their peak, remain elevated after the Fed's cuts in late 2025. The Fed has kept the benchmark steady around 3.5-3.75% lately, with just one m

At this stage of the cycle, what drives price is no longer the quarter, but the path forward. 1. Beat vs Guidance For banks like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley, Q1 “beats” are largely expected. Trading desks have benefited from volatility, and net interest income is stabilising. What the market is really asking: Are net interest margins peaking or extending into 2026? Is loan growth واقعی or still sluggish? Are credit losses starting to creep up? A clean beat with flat or cautious 2026 guidance often leads to a muted or negative reaction. Conversely, even a modest beat with upward guidance revision can re-rate the sector. Conclusion: Guidance matters more than the headline beat. --- 2. Is upside already priced in? Largely, yes. Financials have already rallied on: Rate stability

Latest news matter in earnings season. Significant volatility remains as underlying risks persists.

Last week felt like a relief rally to me, with U.S. markets rebounding strongly as tensions eased and oil prices dropped. While the price action looks bullish, I’m still cautious— inflation remains above target, growth was revised lower, and sentiment is weakening, which signals a mixed macro backdrop. I’m seeing AI and semiconductors continue to lead, with names like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ benefiting fr

never ease. tonight bearish again. very tense now. can hear a pin drop in the room.

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13% Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices. Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses. Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119. Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses. GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially). Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March). Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ is set to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings tomorrow morning, Tuesday, April 14, 2026. As the bellwether for the banking sector, JPM often sets the tone for the entire market’s earnings season. Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations Analysts are looking for a strong year-over-year increase, driven by a revival in capital markets and resilient consumer spending. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) delivered a complex but ultimately resilient Q4 2025 performance on January 13, 2026. While the headline numbers showed a robust beat on profitability, the report was punctuated by a significant one-time item and cautious forward-looking commentary that has become a trademark of Jamie Dimon’s leadership. Q4 2025 Earnings Summary JPM surpassed expectations o

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$BlackRock(BLK)$ is confirmed to report its Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, before the market opens. Following a record-breaking 2025 where Assets Under Management (AUM) crossed the $14 trillion mark, this report will be a critical barometer for the broader financial services sector and the health of institutional capital flows. Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations Consensus EPS Estimate: $12.01 – $12.06 (representing ~6% to 7% YoY growth). Consensus Revenue Estimate: $6.62 billion (a projected ~25% YoY increase). Recent Momentum: BlackRock has an average earnings surprise of 8.2% over the last four quarters. However, recent analyst sentiment is mixed, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate being revised downward by 1.7% in the week leading up to

Special Focus on Private Credit Risk The Fed is now asking banks how exposed they are to private credit. The Treasury is asking insurers the same question. They’re doing it quietly, through routine examination channels & not a formal investigation. That’s what regulators do when they’re worried but don’t yet know how worried to be. - X user Nic @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Earnings Calendar (13Apr2026) Banking Sector Earnings and Netflix Analysis This week, earnings results for the banking sector will be announced. Alongside these updates, Netflix stands out as one of the leading players in the market. Over the past year, Netflix’s stock price has risen by 12.17%. However, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio suggests the stock may be somewhat expensive at current levels. Key Financial Metrics P/E Ratio: 40.47 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.53 Investment Ratings and Target Price Technical analysis recommends a “strong buy” for Netflix stock. Analyst sentiment is also positive, with a “buy” rating. The target price for Netflix is set at $114.3, indicating a potential upside of 10.7% from current levels. Revenue and Profit Growth Netfl

If the banks deliver solid results, it will too slow to chase after the bullish market. Keep watching for buy opportunities.

You are framing the right tension. In this setup, the “beat” matters far less than the forward signal. 1) What actually drives price now For large banks like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley: Q1 numbers = backward-looking Trading + deal fees tend to be cyclical and already visible via market activity Net interest income (NII) is largely modelled ahead of time Guidance = repricing catalyst 2026 NII trajectory (rate cuts vs stickiness) Investment banking pipeline (is deal momentum durable?) Credit quality (early stress signals matter more than beats) 👉 In this environment, guidance > beat, unless the beat is materially outside expectations. --- 2) Market positioning matters more than the print Right now the market is: Already expecting “solid” quarters Positioned for stabilising

Find out more here:Join me on Tiger Trade! Sign up with my invite and we both get USD 90*! You'll also unlock up to SGD 1,000 in welcome perks.

BIG BANKS KICK OFF Q1 EARNINGS: BEAT AND FADE, OR IS THE RALLY JUST STARTING? The Q1 2026 earnings season is officially opening its doors, and the spotlight is glaring directly on Wall Street's heavyweights. Expectations are sky-high for giants like Citi, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley, driven by a resurgence in deal-making, robust trading revenues, and resilient Net Interest Income (NII). But with the financials sector already heavily bid up heading into these prints, a massive tension is building on the tape: if the numbers are merely "good," will the market ruthlessly fade the news? Here is why this bank earnings kickoff is a massive psychological trap, and what the smart money is actually watching behind the headline numbers.  1️⃣ The "Priced for Perfection" Trap Retail traders o

same old earnings. some companies will go up, some will go down

We just had 7 straight green days. $VIX broke below 20 for the first time since the Iran escalation. Friday pre-market is green again. On the surface, things look pretty good. But here's the thing – Wall Street is not agreeing on what comes next. Citadel says we're in an "asymmetric upside" setup. They think net positioning is light enough that any good news will hit harder than usual. Goldman is warning that everyone expecting 11% earnings growth in Q2 is being too optimistic – they see margins getting crushed and growth slowing to 7% in the second half of the year. And Morningstar says growth stocks are 21% below fair value, which is rare, but also says Q2 rallies stay capped unless Iran publicly signals they want to negotiate. So who's right? I put together a full breakdown of the Q2 ou

$Wells Fargo(WFC)$   $Citigroup(C)$   $Morgan Stanley(MS)$   Q1 earnings season is kicking off with a clear expectation: strength. Big banks like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are set up to report solid numbers. Trading desks have benefited from elevated volatility, deal pipelines have quietly improved, and

bank earnings season is kicking off right now, and honestly, I'm pretty optimistic about what the big six – JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley – are likely to deliver for the first quarter of 2026. Analysts are calling for overall profits to rise around 5% year-over-year across the group. Revenues should grow in the mid-to-high single digits for most of them, which isn't flashy but feels reliable in today's environment.What’s driving this? Net interest income (that sweet spread between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits) is still holding up nicely thanks to rates that, while lower than their peak, remain elevated after the Fed's cuts in late 2025. The Fed has kept the benchmark steady around 3.5-3.75% lately, with just one m

Wary of geopolitical uncertainties, markets tend to shift towards defense sector. Stay calm and continue to trade.

$BlackRock(BLK)$ is confirmed to report its Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, before the market opens. Following a record-breaking 2025 where Assets Under Management (AUM) crossed the $14 trillion mark, this report will be a critical barometer for the broader financial services sector and the health of institutional capital flows. Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations Consensus EPS Estimate: $12.01 – $12.06 (representing ~6% to 7% YoY growth). Consensus Revenue Estimate: $6.62 billion (a projected ~25% YoY increase). Recent Momentum: BlackRock has an average earnings surprise of 8.2% over the last four quarters. However, recent analyst sentiment is mixed, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate being revised downward by 1.7% in the week leading up to

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13% Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices. Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses. Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119. Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses. GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially). Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March). Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ is set to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings tomorrow morning, Tuesday, April 14, 2026. As the bellwether for the banking sector, JPM often sets the tone for the entire market’s earnings season. Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations Analysts are looking for a strong year-over-year increase, driven by a revival in capital markets and resilient consumer spending. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) delivered a complex but ultimately resilient Q4 2025 performance on January 13, 2026. While the headline numbers showed a robust beat on profitability, the report was punctuated by a significant one-time item and cautious forward-looking commentary that has become a trademark of Jamie Dimon’s leadership. Q4 2025 Earnings Summary JPM surpassed expectations o

At this stage of the cycle, what drives price is no longer the quarter, but the path forward. 1. Beat vs Guidance For banks like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley, Q1 “beats” are largely expected. Trading desks have benefited from volatility, and net interest income is stabilising. What the market is really asking: Are net interest margins peaking or extending into 2026? Is loan growth واقعی or still sluggish? Are credit losses starting to creep up? A clean beat with flat or cautious 2026 guidance often leads to a muted or negative reaction. Conversely, even a modest beat with upward guidance revision can re-rate the sector. Conclusion: Guidance matters more than the headline beat. --- 2. Is upside already priced in? Largely, yes. Financials have already rallied on: Rate stability

Earnings Calendar (13Apr2026) Banking Sector Earnings and Netflix Analysis This week, earnings results for the banking sector will be announced. Alongside these updates, Netflix stands out as one of the leading players in the market. Over the past year, Netflix’s stock price has risen by 12.17%. However, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio suggests the stock may be somewhat expensive at current levels. Key Financial Metrics P/E Ratio: 40.47 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.53 Investment Ratings and Target Price Technical analysis recommends a “strong buy” for Netflix stock. Analyst sentiment is also positive, with a “buy” rating. The target price for Netflix is set at $114.3, indicating a potential upside of 10.7% from current levels. Revenue and Profit Growth Netfl

Latest news matter in earnings season. Significant volatility remains as underlying risks persists.

BIG BANKS KICK OFF Q1 EARNINGS: BEAT AND FADE, OR IS THE RALLY JUST STARTING? The Q1 2026 earnings season is officially opening its doors, and the spotlight is glaring directly on Wall Street's heavyweights. Expectations are sky-high for giants like Citi, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley, driven by a resurgence in deal-making, robust trading revenues, and resilient Net Interest Income (NII). But with the financials sector already heavily bid up heading into these prints, a massive tension is building on the tape: if the numbers are merely "good," will the market ruthlessly fade the news? Here is why this bank earnings kickoff is a massive psychological trap, and what the smart money is actually watching behind the headline numbers.  1️⃣ The "Priced for Perfection" Trap Retail traders o

Last week felt like a relief rally to me, with U.S. markets rebounding strongly as tensions eased and oil prices dropped. While the price action looks bullish, I’m still cautious— inflation remains above target, growth was revised lower, and sentiment is weakening, which signals a mixed macro backdrop. I’m seeing AI and semiconductors continue to lead, with names like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ benefiting fr

You are framing the right tension. In this setup, the “beat” matters far less than the forward signal. 1) What actually drives price now For large banks like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley: Q1 numbers = backward-looking Trading + deal fees tend to be cyclical and already visible via market activity Net interest income (NII) is largely modelled ahead of time Guidance = repricing catalyst 2026 NII trajectory (rate cuts vs stickiness) Investment banking pipeline (is deal momentum durable?) Credit quality (early stress signals matter more than beats) 👉 In this environment, guidance > beat, unless the beat is materially outside expectations. --- 2) Market positioning matters more than the print Right now the market is: Already expecting “solid” quarters Positioned for stabilising

Special Focus on Private Credit Risk The Fed is now asking banks how exposed they are to private credit. The Treasury is asking insurers the same question. They’re doing it quietly, through routine examination channels & not a formal investigation. That’s what regulators do when they’re worried but don’t yet know how worried to be. - X user Nic @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

never ease. tonight bearish again. very tense now. can hear a pin drop in the room.

Find out more here:Join me on Tiger Trade! Sign up with my invite and we both get USD 90*! You'll also unlock up to SGD 1,000 in welcome perks.

We just had 7 straight green days. $VIX broke below 20 for the first time since the Iran escalation. Friday pre-market is green again. On the surface, things look pretty good. But here's the thing – Wall Street is not agreeing on what comes next. Citadel says we're in an "asymmetric upside" setup. They think net positioning is light enough that any good news will hit harder than usual. Goldman is warning that everyone expecting 11% earnings growth in Q2 is being too optimistic – they see margins getting crushed and growth slowing to 7% in the second half of the year. And Morningstar says growth stocks are 21% below fair value, which is rare, but also says Q2 rallies stay capped unless Iran publicly signals they want to negotiate. So who's right? I put together a full breakdown of the Q2 ou

$Wells Fargo(WFC)$   $Citigroup(C)$   $Morgan Stanley(MS)$   Q1 earnings season is kicking off with a clear expectation: strength. Big banks like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are set up to report solid numbers. Trading desks have benefited from elevated volatility, deal pipelines have quietly improved, and

If the banks deliver solid results, it will too slow to chase after the bullish market. Keep watching for buy opportunities.

Find out more here:Join me on Tiger Trade! Sign up with my invite and we both get USD 90*! You'll also unlock up to SGD 1,000 in welcome perks.

same old earnings. some companies will go up, some will go down