To The Moon

Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  has risen to heaven levels. Decided to change strategy to short $SOXS 20260515 16.0 CALL$ . Testing out strategy on demo before execution

$SGOV 20260515 100.0 PUT$ new strategy. Trying to get put assigned to own shares at discount, less premium received. Then receive monthly dividend to park cash. Sell off via call or sell off units if/when needed for next pullback

How crazy the retail investors are. The triple leveraged ETF SOXL, which makes semiconductors more than $1 billion in net inflows, a record since its establishment in 2010. Cerebras went public with an initial initial public offering of $185, closing up 68% on its first day, raising more than $5.5 billion. When everyone's money is squeezed into the same leverage corner, as long as there is a slight disturbance, such as a rise in debt yields, the market will experience a tragic situation of people stepping on people. This is the end-of-the-life of crowd irrationality overrides risk pricing mechanisms.

Investment markets never believe in tears, they only reflect the extreme values of human greed and fear. We are now facing a complex time of excessive liquidity, AI belief fever, but also physical inflation backlash and geopolitical extremes. Don't miss the rising waves because of fear of bubbles, and don't lose your rationale because of greed. Stay awake and discipline is paramount.

Now this is great, keep going S&P

The rally is narrow but not irrational. A few leaders, especially NVIDIA and peers, are carrying index performance because they sit at the centre of real earnings growth, not just narrative. Mallouk’s point has merit. The chip trade is still supported by genuine demand: hyperscaler capex, inference scaling, and supply constraints across GPUs, memory, and networking. That gives semis stronger near-term visibility than most sectors. But the risk is concentration and expectations. When a small group drives the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, the market becomes fragile. Any disappointment, even a “good but not great” quarter, can trigger outsized reactions. So I would frame it this way: Trend: still bullish, backed by earnings Structure: increasingly fragile Behaviour: late-cycle characteris

S&P 500 Ekes Out Seventh Consecutive Weekly Gain as Energy Leads The Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up 0.1% this week, its seventh consecutive weekly gain, as a strong advance in energy stocks helped outweigh declines in other sectors. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$   ended the week at 7,408.50, up slightly on the week but down from the new closing high it reached Thursday at 7,501.24. The market benchmark also hit a new intraday high on Thursday at 7,517.12. The seven-week win streak is the index's longest since a nine-week run that ended in December 2023. The S&P 500 is now up 2.8% for the month and has climbed 8.2% in 2026. The week's advance was driven by gains in only four of the S&P 500's

Right now, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are being driven mainly by: * AI enthusiasm * Strong earnings from mega-cap tech companies * Massive semiconductor demand * Investors believing the U.S. economy can avoid a recession Companies tied to AI infrastructure — especially chipmakers and cloud companies — have been carrying a huge part of the rally.  

The market keeps making new highs, but I don’t think this is the kind of tape where everything should be chased equally. It still feels like leadership matters a lot. That’s why I’m not automatically fading strength, but I’m also not pretending this is easy broad-based upside everywhere. The higher the indexes go, the more I think people need to separate strong trends from crowded trades. I still respect the tape. I’m just a lot more selective here than I would’ve been earlier in the move. Are you still leaning risk-on here, or starting to get more defensive at these levels? I'm Sitting in the fence here. Careful play! 

In the latest week, U.S.-Iran talks remained deadlocked, while Trump began his state visit to China. U.S. President Trump arrived in Beijing on the evening of May 13, marking his first trip to China in nine years. He was accompanied by more than a dozen top U.S. business leaders, including tech figures such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. The two heads of state held talks and set the tone by stating that “2026 should be a historic and landmark year that carries forward the past and opens a new chapter in China-U.S. relations.” This diplomatic progress was viewed by the market as a “new positioning” in China-U.S. relations, significantly boosting global risk appetite. As of 2:00 p.m. on May 15, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets was as follows: In an environment where macro expectations

What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca

With Tech stocks volatility downswings are getting more profound, it would be prudent to trim positions where the pe ratio is remarkably high and diversify away into other industries.

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ reaching record highs in mid-2026 is driven largely by resilient corporate earnings and massive AI infrastructure spending. However, the market currently faces a "brittle" environment where high valuations leave little room for error. Below is an analysis of the impending risks and strategies to manage a portfolio in this high-altitude environment. 1. Impending Risks (May 2026) Despite the bullish momentum, several "flashpoints" could trigger a sudden correction: Geopolitical Volatility: The ongoing conflict in Iran remains a primary risk. While markets have recently shown a "faster recovery" from geopolitical shocks, a prolonged naval blockade or escalation co

$GoDaddy(GDDY)$   GoDaddy (GDDY) Latest News GoDaddy (GDDY) and Infoblox said Thursday they support complementary open standards that help artificial intelligence agents identify, discover, and verify one another across the open web. Infoblox is advancing Domain Name System for AI Discovery, or DNS-AID, an open, interoperable approach for agent discovery developed on existing DNS infrastructure, according to the statement. GoDaddy is helping develop Agent Name Service, or ANS, an open standard focused on agent identity, naming and verification using DNS and public key infrastructure, the statement added. Infoblox and GoDaddy believe agent discovery and identity should be open and interoperable, not linked to pr

Sell in May happening after all positive big earning reports? Buy in Sep again some say?

Six straight weeks of gain is just a sign for a big crash. Get your cash ready for the big promotion sales

One thing I keep coming back to: The trend still looks strong, but this feels like a much more selective market now. Earlier in the move, it felt like momentum could lift almost anything. Now it feels more like the market is rewarding quality, earnings strength, and real leadership. I’m not in the camp of blindly shorting strength here, but I’m also not chasing every breakout like it’s early cycle. Main question for me: do leaders keep leading, or do we finally get rotation into laggards?

The markets have been rising and the party is on. However there is a dark side to all this.  As I like to say,"Every trend has an end" so we should look at the case when the trend reverses. Big players are already leveling up the contrarian bets. There is a call wall according to GEX data which was the highest OI for the SPX at 7400 but that has been broken. Smaller walls exist at 7425 and a bigger wall at 7450, and a greater wall at 7500.  Every time these levels are tested, big players will sell actively to reduce their Gamma Exposure and to avoid being trapped until they can move their positions higher.  So think of the contrarian scenario so you are in the right side when the trend ends!

 NVIDIA (NVDA) – Best Quality & Momentum Why it's #1: NVIDIA is the strongest overall pick. It has the highest valuation quality with a PE of 44.78x and an ROE of 101.49%. Today’s rally of +1.97% is a continuation of strong momentum, and it has the largest trading value ($35.36B) showing deep institutional support. It is the most fundamentally sound growth stock in the list. NVIDIA 219.44 4.24 +4.24(1.97%)

Prepare for the plunge

Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the

In the latest week, U.S.-Iran talks remained deadlocked, while Trump began his state visit to China. U.S. President Trump arrived in Beijing on the evening of May 13, marking his first trip to China in nine years. He was accompanied by more than a dozen top U.S. business leaders, including tech figures such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. The two heads of state held talks and set the tone by stating that “2026 should be a historic and landmark year that carries forward the past and opens a new chapter in China-U.S. relations.” This diplomatic progress was viewed by the market as a “new positioning” in China-U.S. relations, significantly boosting global risk appetite. As of 2:00 p.m. on May 15, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets was as follows: In an environment where macro expectations

What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca

S&P 500 Ekes Out Seventh Consecutive Weekly Gain as Energy Leads The Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up 0.1% this week, its seventh consecutive weekly gain, as a strong advance in energy stocks helped outweigh declines in other sectors. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$   ended the week at 7,408.50, up slightly on the week but down from the new closing high it reached Thursday at 7,501.24. The market benchmark also hit a new intraday high on Thursday at 7,517.12. The seven-week win streak is the index's longest since a nine-week run that ended in December 2023. The S&P 500 is now up 2.8% for the month and has climbed 8.2% in 2026. The week's advance was driven by gains in only four of the S&P 500's

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ reaching record highs in mid-2026 is driven largely by resilient corporate earnings and massive AI infrastructure spending. However, the market currently faces a "brittle" environment where high valuations leave little room for error. Below is an analysis of the impending risks and strategies to manage a portfolio in this high-altitude environment. 1. Impending Risks (May 2026) Despite the bullish momentum, several "flashpoints" could trigger a sudden correction: Geopolitical Volatility: The ongoing conflict in Iran remains a primary risk. While markets have recently shown a "faster recovery" from geopolitical shocks, a prolonged naval blockade or escalation co

How crazy the retail investors are. The triple leveraged ETF SOXL, which makes semiconductors more than $1 billion in net inflows, a record since its establishment in 2010. Cerebras went public with an initial initial public offering of $185, closing up 68% on its first day, raising more than $5.5 billion. When everyone's money is squeezed into the same leverage corner, as long as there is a slight disturbance, such as a rise in debt yields, the market will experience a tragic situation of people stepping on people. This is the end-of-the-life of crowd irrationality overrides risk pricing mechanisms.

$SGOV 20260515 100.0 PUT$ new strategy. Trying to get put assigned to own shares at discount, less premium received. Then receive monthly dividend to park cash. Sell off via call or sell off units if/when needed for next pullback

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  has risen to heaven levels. Decided to change strategy to short $SOXS 20260515 16.0 CALL$ . Testing out strategy on demo before execution

Investment markets never believe in tears, they only reflect the extreme values of human greed and fear. We are now facing a complex time of excessive liquidity, AI belief fever, but also physical inflation backlash and geopolitical extremes. Don't miss the rising waves because of fear of bubbles, and don't lose your rationale because of greed. Stay awake and discipline is paramount.

The rally is narrow but not irrational. A few leaders, especially NVIDIA and peers, are carrying index performance because they sit at the centre of real earnings growth, not just narrative. Mallouk’s point has merit. The chip trade is still supported by genuine demand: hyperscaler capex, inference scaling, and supply constraints across GPUs, memory, and networking. That gives semis stronger near-term visibility than most sectors. But the risk is concentration and expectations. When a small group drives the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, the market becomes fragile. Any disappointment, even a “good but not great” quarter, can trigger outsized reactions. So I would frame it this way: Trend: still bullish, backed by earnings Structure: increasingly fragile Behaviour: late-cycle characteris

Now this is great, keep going S&P

The market keeps making new highs, but I don’t think this is the kind of tape where everything should be chased equally. It still feels like leadership matters a lot. That’s why I’m not automatically fading strength, but I’m also not pretending this is easy broad-based upside everywhere. The higher the indexes go, the more I think people need to separate strong trends from crowded trades. I still respect the tape. I’m just a lot more selective here than I would’ve been earlier in the move. Are you still leaning risk-on here, or starting to get more defensive at these levels? I'm Sitting in the fence here. Careful play! 

Right now, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are being driven mainly by: * AI enthusiasm * Strong earnings from mega-cap tech companies * Massive semiconductor demand * Investors believing the U.S. economy can avoid a recession Companies tied to AI infrastructure — especially chipmakers and cloud companies — have been carrying a huge part of the rally.  

$GoDaddy(GDDY)$   GoDaddy (GDDY) Latest News GoDaddy (GDDY) and Infoblox said Thursday they support complementary open standards that help artificial intelligence agents identify, discover, and verify one another across the open web. Infoblox is advancing Domain Name System for AI Discovery, or DNS-AID, an open, interoperable approach for agent discovery developed on existing DNS infrastructure, according to the statement. GoDaddy is helping develop Agent Name Service, or ANS, an open standard focused on agent identity, naming and verification using DNS and public key infrastructure, the statement added. Infoblox and GoDaddy believe agent discovery and identity should be open and interoperable, not linked to pr

With Tech stocks volatility downswings are getting more profound, it would be prudent to trim positions where the pe ratio is remarkably high and diversify away into other industries.

Sell in May happening after all positive big earning reports? Buy in Sep again some say?

One thing I keep coming back to: The trend still looks strong, but this feels like a much more selective market now. Earlier in the move, it felt like momentum could lift almost anything. Now it feels more like the market is rewarding quality, earnings strength, and real leadership. I’m not in the camp of blindly shorting strength here, but I’m also not chasing every breakout like it’s early cycle. Main question for me: do leaders keep leading, or do we finally get rotation into laggards?

Six straight weeks of gain is just a sign for a big crash. Get your cash ready for the big promotion sales

The markets have been rising and the party is on. However there is a dark side to all this.  As I like to say,"Every trend has an end" so we should look at the case when the trend reverses. Big players are already leveling up the contrarian bets. There is a call wall according to GEX data which was the highest OI for the SPX at 7400 but that has been broken. Smaller walls exist at 7425 and a bigger wall at 7450, and a greater wall at 7500.  Every time these levels are tested, big players will sell actively to reduce their Gamma Exposure and to avoid being trapped until they can move their positions higher.  So think of the contrarian scenario so you are in the right side when the trend ends!

 NVIDIA (NVDA) – Best Quality & Momentum Why it's #1: NVIDIA is the strongest overall pick. It has the highest valuation quality with a PE of 44.78x and an ROE of 101.49%. Today’s rally of +1.97% is a continuation of strong momentum, and it has the largest trading value ($35.36B) showing deep institutional support. It is the most fundamentally sound growth stock in the list. NVIDIA 219.44 4.24 +4.24(1.97%)