To The Moon

Hotter inflation renews pressure on the rebound

The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 0.68 per cent on Tuesday and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 0.38 per cent. October US CPI rose 0.4 per cent month on month, above the market forecast of 0.3 per cent but below September's 0.6 per cent. Core CPI increased 0.3 per cent, exceeding the 0.2 per cent forecast and matching the previous month.

Headline inflation slowed, but core inflation did not ease further, making disinflation a less convincing basis for extending the technology rebound. Interest-rate pressure can reduce the value investors place on distant profits and increase the burden on companies financing expansion. One CPI release cannot determine the size of a December rate increase, however; a 50-basis-point move is not a settled outcome.

Nvidia's investigation is not evidence of weaker chip demand

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell 5.47 per cent while TSMC gained 2.02 per cent. On 10 November, Nvidia's independent directors announced that they had retained Joon H. Kim and law firm Wachtell Lipton to conduct an independent investigation. The board had previously said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets had been compromised. Progress with the investigation does not establish wrongdoing.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$reported October revenue of NT$586.89 billion on the same day, up 14.7 per cent month on month and 59.7 per cent year on year. That provides actual revenue evidence for foundry demand, but one month's figures cannot establish AI-related profitability. The companies face different tests: Nvidia needs to resolve governance concerns, while TSMC must show that growth can keep translating into profit.

CoreWeave raises guidance, but interest absorbs the operating profit

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ fell 0.51 per cent in regular trading before reporting third-quarter revenue of $3.661 billion after-hours, above the market forecast of approximately $3.62 billion. Its GAAP loss was $1.27 a share and its quarterly net loss was $709 million. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $13.0 billion to $13.3 billion; the final after-hours quote was approximately 7.90 per cent above the regular-session close.

Revenue growth is materialising, but quarterly operating income was just $207 million against net interest expense of $846 million. Expected full-year capital spending is $37 billion to $39 billion, with the lower end raised from previous guidance. Interest expense for the following quarter is expected to be another $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion. Faster expansion has not removed financing costs, and a revenue beat does not mean the business is profitable.

The company's approximately $132.5 billion revenue backlog includes remaining performance obligations and other expected revenue under committed contracts, subject to delivery and service-availability requirements. It is not cash already collected. Bulls see a larger business; more cautious investors need evidence that profitability improves fast enough to cover debt costs as data centres enter service.

Anthropic's roadshow does not turn funding into cloud revenue

Anthropic formally launched its IPO roadshow on 10 November, proposing to sell 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. At the upper end, the base offering would total approximately $64.35 billion: about 801.35 million shares would be newly issued and approximately 23.65 million sold by existing holders. Proceeds from the latter do not go to the company. This remains a proposed range, not a final offer price.

For Alphabet and Amazon, the value of investment holdings must be separated from cloud-services revenue. A higher listing valuation could increase investment value, but it cannot be counted directly as Google Cloud or AWS operating revenue. Returns from computing partnerships still depend on actual usage and delivery. New funding can support expansion while requiring investors to assess the returns on larger investment commitments.

T-Head's proposed spin-off still needs operating evidence

$Alibaba(BABA)$ fell 2.52 per cent. In a 10 November announcement, the company said T-Head had confidentially submitted a Hong Kong listing application on 11 September, seeking a separate Main Board listing. Permission to proceed with the spin-off process is not final listing approval, and the offering valuation has not been set.

A separate listing could broaden funding options and make the chip business easier to value. The benefit to Alibaba shareholders will still depend on offering terms, ownership changes and operating profit. Advancing an IPO does not automatically increase Alibaba Cloud revenue; subsequent prospectus disclosures about customers, revenue and costs will be more informative.

Sea reports pre-market, with profit growing more slowly than revenue

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ closed down 1.49 per cent on Tuesday. Third-quarter revenue was approximately $8.6 billion, above the market forecast of about $8.29 billion and up 43.4 per cent year on year. Net income was approximately $502 million, up 34.0 per cent, and GAAP diluted earnings were $0.78 a share.

Growth is supported by profit, but net income is still expanding more slowly than revenue. Whether Shopee's investment improves profitability, and whether the digital-finance business controls credit costs, will influence the quality of that growth. The result is also a reminder that beating revenue forecasts is only one part of assessing earnings; it does not establish that the shares should rise.

Taken together, inflation, earnings and IPO plans reveal a clearer distinction: demand can keep growing without revenue, profit and financing returns moving together. TSMC offers revenue evidence, CoreWeave exposes the interest burden, and prospective listings need further disclosure to justify their valuations. AI investment still offers opportunities, but choosing companies requires closer attention to how much growth becomes profit.

A note on sources: market moves use the 10 November US regular-session close; CoreWeave's approximately 7.90 per cent move is separately identified as an after-hours quote change. Earnings, monthly sales, investigation and spin-off information use company announcements. CPI uses release-day reporting and market forecasts; no rate-hike probability or missing annual reading is inferred. Revenue forecasts come from this edition's Finnhub calendar. EPS estimates with unspecified accounting bases are not directly scored against GAAP actuals. Guidance, expected contract revenue, offering totals and recognised revenue are treated separately. This is personal analysis and not investment advice.

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