$PLTR: Revenue +96%. Contracts +6%. Here's my sell put pick.
Palantir closed Friday at $160.38. That is 23.3% below its record close of $209.05 on Oct 9.
Thursday it fell 9.7% to $154.99. That was its eighth straight losing day, and the biggest one-day drop since Feb 4 (−11.6%). Friday bounced 3.48%.
Why it fell
1. New contracts slowed. US commercial total contract value (TCV, the lifetime value of deals signed) grew just 11% this quarter, against 153% in Q2. Total TCV grew 6%, against 49% in Q2.
2. The pipeline slowed. US commercial remaining deal value (contracts still to be paid out) grew only 4% from Q2. Last quarter it grew 27%.
3. Growth is cooling. The Q4 guidance of $2.649–2.653B means about 15% growth over Q3, down from 20%. It is still about 88–89% above a year ago.
4. The market sold off. On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5% in the AI selloff, and high-valuation AI stocks fell hardest.
What Q3 actually said (reported Nov 2)
• Revenue $2.313B, up 96%, against ~$2.18B expected. Its first $2B quarter.
• US commercial revenue $984M, up 148%. It passed US government revenue for the first time.
• Adjusted EPS $0.44 against $0.41 expected. The tenth straight beat.
• Adjusted operating margin 62%. Rule of 40 score: 158%.
• Full-year guidance raised to $8.53B. US commercial guided to at least +143%.
• Cash and Treasuries: $10.4B
The way I see it: revenue tells you about the past quarter, signed contracts about the next few. The market sold the slowdown in new deals, not the quarter. Even after a 23% drop it is still about 51× sales and ~113× earnings. There's no valuation floor under it, so the strike needs room.
Strike math (Dec 18 expiry, 39 days from Monday)
• 200-day ≈ $156.7. The price is only about 2% above it, so the trend check passes, but barely.
• Next earnings are in February 2027, after expiry ✅
• IV is about 45–50% with an IV rank of about 7–19. The stock has been moving more than options are pricing ❌
• 1 standard deviation down ≈ $134
• 200-day × 0.98 ≈ $153.5
• $135 has delta 0.12, too far out to be worth selling, so I move up to $140 (delta 0.17)
The pick
• Sell 1× PLTR Dec 18 $140 put
• Model premium ≈ $2.65 at 50% IV
• Break-even ≈ $137.35, 12.7% below Friday's close
• About 78% model odds of expiring worthless
• Cash needed: $14,000 per contract
• Tier 2 name and the volatility check failed, so half size
• Take profit: GTC buy-back at ~$1.30 (50%)
• Stop: ~$6.60 (2.5× the credit), one roll at most
The rule that overrides the trade
If PLTR closes below its 200-day, I don't open new puts. A broken trend plus thin premium is how a 12% cushion turns into an assignment.
The verdict: the trend holds and the premium is thin. Half size at $140, and let the stock show it can hold the 200-day before adding.
Personal framework, education only, not advice. The premium is a Black-Scholes estimate, not a live quote, so check the chain in Tiger before trading. Options carry risk, including assignment.
#PLTR #Palantir #SellPut #Options #WheelStrategy
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- chenobserver·11-09 16:24TCV decel matters less to me than how sticky the long-duration contracts are. If the 200-day holds, this still looks like noise inside a bigger growth storyLikeReport