To The Moon

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 

Bounce: yes. Bottom: not proven. How I'm selling puts into it.

Thursday was the worst day for US stocks since April 2025.

• Nasdaq −5.5%, S&P 500 −4.4%, chip index (SOX) −12.25%

• The Magnificent 7 lost about $1 trillion in market value

• Losing stocks outnumbered winners 6.1 to 1 on the S&P

• 26.9B shares traded, against a 17.7B average

• The Nasdaq fell into correction (10%+ off its high)

Friday bounced, but only partly.

• Nasdaq +1.09% to 24,579

• S&P +0.31% to 7,377

• Dow −0.46%

• The VIX (fear gauge) fell from 28.18 to 23.72. It was 16.61 on Wednesday.

• For the week: Nasdaq −3.4%, S&P −2.7%. The S&P is still +7.8% for the year.

Where the money went

Dip buyers went back into the stocks hit hardest on Thursday: AMD ~+9%, Micron +5.15%, Nvidia +2.81%. They did not chase the cash-rich platform names. Microsoft fell 0.99% and Amazon 0.35%. So this was short-term buyers covering chips, not big funds rotating back into tech. The bigger trend hasn't broken, though: tech ETFs took in $7.4B in October and about $66B this year, roughly 70% of all money going into sector funds.

The case that it's a bottom

1. The VIX jumped 69.7% on Thursday. Since 1990 it has jumped 60%+ in one day only five times, and the S&P was higher a month later all five times.

2. Since 2007 the VIX (+40% or more) and VVIX (+30% or more) have spiked together six times. The S&P was higher a month later every time.

3. The S&P (7,377) is still above its 200-day average (~7,320). Credit markets stayed calm.

4. October payrolls came in at +165K against ~65K expected, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Nothing there says recession.

The case that it's not

1. Both Nasdaq indexes broke below their 200-day average on Thursday, and Friday won back only part of the loss.

2. Downside protection got much more expensive. SPY put skew went from −4.5 to −10.1 vol points in one day.

3. The VIX curve inverted: short-dated VIX (1.10× the 3-month) priced more fear now than later.

4. The strong jobs data cuts both ways. Markets now price a December rate hike above 80%, and the 10-year yield is ~4.86%.

5. Nvidia reports Nov 17. The Fed meets Dec 8–9.

My bottom checklist

• VIX back under 20

• Nasdaq back above its 200-day

• Nvidia's earnings out of the way

Today it's 0 of 3. That doesn't stop me selling puts. It changes how: smaller size, strikes further out, and only on names that pass my rules.

Option data I'm using

• SPY 30-day IV 20.3% (12.3% on Oct 9). Expected move to Nov 13: ±$23 (±3.1%).

• AMZN 30-day IV 36.4%, IV rank 48. Expected move for the week: ±$13.96 (±5.4%).

Pick 1: AMZN $232.5 put, Dec 18 (41 days)

• Price $259.30, above the 200-day ($243.43) ✅

• Earnings were Oct 29, so none before expiry ✅

• IV rank 48, above my 40 minimum ✅

• 1 standard deviation down = $227.7. 200-day × 0.98 = $238.6. The lower one sets the start.

• $230 has delta 0.14, too far out to be worth selling, so I move up.

• $232.5 put ≈ $2.83 model premium, delta 0.16

• Break-even ≈ $229.7, about 10% below Friday's close

• Roughly 81% model odds of expiring worthless

• Take profit: buy back at ~$1.40 (50%), GTC. Stop: ~$5.65 (2× the credit).

Pick 2: SPY $690 put, Dec 18

• About 6% below the current price, ≈ $4.30 model premium, delta 0.16

• Each contract ties up $69,000. XSP 690 is the same trade at 1/10 the size and settles in cash.

• The S&P is only 0.8% above its 200-day, so size this small.

Nvidia: wait

Earnings on Nov 17 fall inside the December expiry, so it's off-limits for now. I'll re-check my rules on Nov 18.

The verdict

This is a good time to sell puts, but not to go all in. The VIX is at 23.7 and there's a Fed meeting before expiry, so keep plenty of cash spare. Sell the fear in names that held their 200-day, and let Nvidia's earnings come to me.

Personal framework, education only, not advice. Premiums are Black-Scholes estimates at at-the-money IV. Real out-of-the-money puts usually price higher because of skew, so check the live chain in Tiger before trading. Options carry risk, including assignment.

#SellPut #Options #VIX #AMZN #SPY #NVDA #MarketRebound