(Part 3 of 3) News and my investing muse (12Oct2026)
INVESTING PREVIEW (12Oct2026)
III. News and My Investing Muse
Energy is driving inflation. Brent crude averaged about $114 in September, while petrol and diesel reached record monthly prices. Core inflation is still easing, but the Fed cannot solve an oil shock with higher interest rates.
Car buyers are feeling the pressure. A quarter of new-car loans now run longer than 84 months. The average amount financed is $44,664, with a monthly payment of $787. I’ll be listening for signs that banks are seeing more household stress.
A small insurer is flashing a warning. South Carolina is moving to take control of Atlantic Coast Life Insurance after concerns about risky, hard-to-sell investments. The company is not large enough to threaten the wider system, but the case shows how higher rates can expose weak balance sheets.
Foreign demand for US debt is weakening. China’s Treasury holdings have fallen from $1.3 trillion in 2013 to about $618 billion. Japan still holds about $1.1 trillion, but its demand is softer too. If foreign buyers keep stepping back, US investors may have to absorb more debt at higher yields. BlackRock’s strong bond-fund flows suggest that shift may already be happening.
Anthropic has delayed its IPO to November so it can show third-quarter results first. The reported valuation is close to $2 trillion, with Nvidia said to be investing $10 billion. When the filing appears, I’ll focus on the company’s risks before its price.
Shipping risks remain high. Only seven ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on September 10, compared with about 125 a day before the war. New attacks could also disrupt the Red Sea route again. The EIA expects Brent crude to average $105 in the fourth quarter.
High petrol prices may shape the election. Kalshi gives Democrats strong odds of winning the House and a smaller edge in the Senate. If they sweep, markets may shift from expecting stimulus to expecting gridlock, which could help bonds.
El Niño remains unusually strong. NOAA says there is a better than 90% chance of a very strong event. That could affect coffee, wheat and monsoon-dependent crops.
My position: I’m cautious. I will wait for Wednesday’s core inflation reading before adding long-term bonds. I see energy dips toward $90 as a chance to hedge, not relax. I’ll review Anthropic’s filing when it appears, watch how bonds react to the election and avoid chasing the S&P 500 before the inflation report.
As always, do your own research and focus on the facts.
Sources: Schwab week-ahead calendar; Cleveland Fed nowcast; EIA STEO (Oct); Kalshi (Oct 10); NOAA CPC (Oct 8); BLK Q2 earnings release and FY2021–25 statements (Jul 15 / Investing.com); Yahoo Finance; Edmunds; USA Herald; Unusual Whales. All figures as of October 9–11, 2026.
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- Maria_yy·10:13TOPVolcker is the obvious comp, but oil-driven inflation only breaks if demand cracks hard enough. I care more about whether VIX is sniffing that stress before bonds do1Report
- CornellRudolph·10:13TOPEIA's Q1 view near 98 does make 114 look like a crowded peak trade. If energy stops doing the inflation work, VIX probably loses some of this bid fast1Report