I would trust the hold, but I am not ready to call peak rates yet. Waller has taken some pressure off, but he has not closed the door on another hike.
Payrolls around the +56k consensus with wage growth easing to 3.0% would strengthen the case that the Fed can afford to wait. A much stronger jobs print, especially with hotter wages, could quickly revive the hawkish trade. More importantly, Waller himself has made August inflation the key test.
So for now: September hold > hike, but peak rates still need confirmation from CPI. I would rather miss the first leg of a rally than price in the end of tightening too early.
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