I think weak data and sticky yields can coexist, especially when the market is worried about inflation rather than simply growth. ADP’s 38,000 gain confirms hiring is losing momentum, but the labour market still looks more “slow hire, slow fire” than recessionary. Meanwhile, services input prices have climbed to a three-year high, keeping the Fed’s inflation problem alive.
That explains why the 10-year barely responded, holding around 4.8%. Friday’s payrolls are therefore crucial. Consensus is roughly +56,000 with unemployment at 4.1%. A clear downside miss plus softer wages could finally pull yields lower. But weak payrolls with sticky wage inflation may reinforce the uncomfortable regime we are already seeing: slower growth without cheaper money.
For now, I would not aggressively position for a rate pullback. I would wait for payrolls and, importantly, the wage numbers.
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- OwenBess·09-04 11:32Yeah, not the setup to front-run a rate pullback. If payrolls miss but wages stay sticky, 10Y can easily keep camping near 4.8% and even sniff 5% lolLikeReport
- flipzy·09-04 11:32Services input prices feeding into core PCE is the nasty part here. Even a soft payroll miss may not buy lower yields if wages stay stickyLikeReport