GOLD Has Shown an Overall Weak Trend
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Gold (XAU/USD) has shown an overall weak trend today, maintaining a pattern of weak consolidation and selling on rallies. Pressured by recent oil price rebounds that have sparked inflation concerns (reigniting expectations of high interest rates), the gold price is currently in a wide-range downward channel. $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$
The intraday low has been updated to 4024. Although prices have rebounded slightly, they remain under pressure at the absolute bottom of the downtrend channel. Step-like downward consolidation: After encountering resistance in the 4060 area, gold prices formed a very standard “decline–sideways consolidation–further decline” step-like bearish pattern, with the lower boundary of each consolidation phase being ruthlessly broken.
Current short-term resistance is at 4040, with key support below at 4010–4015. Until prices firmly hold above 4040, avoid blindly trying to catch the bottom! Maintain a sell-biased trading strategy! $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
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Gold prices fluctuated slightly during Thursday’s Asian trading session, with gold (XAU/USD) trading around $4,030, continuing its previous pattern of trading within a narrow range. The main factor driving the rise in gold prices was a further cooling of U.S. inflation data, which led the market to reassess expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy path, thereby reducing the interest rate pressure on gold.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.5% year-over-year in June, down from May’s revised 6.0% and below the market’s prior forecast of 6.2%. Meanwhile, the June PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month, significantly weaker than the revised 0.6% increase in May but better than the market’s prior expectation of no change. The marked slowdown in U.S. producer inflation reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady, reducing the risk of gold coming under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment.
Following the release of the data, market expectations for a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting have further diminished. According to market data, traders currently estimate the probability of a July rate hike at approximately 10.2%, down from 16.6% prior to the data release. Previously, U.S. consumer inflation data for June also came in below expectations, further reinforcing the market’s view that future monetary policy will take a more cautious turn.
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