To The Moon

The week was characterized by strong swings in indices and individual names; geopolitical tensions intensified following U.S. retaliatory military strikes against targets in Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, this sent global oil benchmarks soaring, with Brent crude jumping over 5% and nearing the $80-per-barrel mark.

This spike in energy prices immediately reignited fears regarding persistent inflation, and when combined with Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting potential further interest rate hikes, the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.6%, reaching its highest level since May.

Later in the week the U.S. president noted that while he has agreed to continue diplomatic talks, the tentative truce has officially been scrapped; then the market recovered and some oil gains were yielded.

In response to the shifting market landscape, sector performance diverged. The weekly move in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains constructive, though tech-driven ( $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ ). Materials ( $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ ), healthcare ( $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$ ), industrials ( $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ ), consumer staples ( $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ ), and utilities ( $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ ) declined while real estate remained flat with discretionary and real state. Energy performed well; $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ still has a gap to fill at 56.22 and is showing a weekly bullish stochastic crossover, suggesting further upside.

With that said, we’re back to a bullish market driven by tech ( $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ as communication sector was largely driven by the rally on $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ). However, there are divergences in tech that I have been tracking daily in this publication:

Two weeks ago, I highlighted the bullish probabilities for the magnificent seven based on a transparent analysis of volume, back then nobody was bullish on them, but we had the technical case and the support and resistance levels to validate the thesis; $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ rallied reseting daily timeframes, then we monitored continuation, since some of them have long term weak setups, and in fact GOOG, AMZN and MSFT presented weakness this week.

All that happened in a context where semiconductors are suffering high volatility, also as anticipated from the very day when $Micron Technology(MU)$ posted its earnings report 🎯, trapping many people who don’t have technical or risk management knowledge.

Among other setups, two weeks ago I highlighted the validity of being long in crypto, BTC and ETH have rallied +6% and +15% respectively 🎯.

A more recent call included the bullish one for $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , once our central Weekly Level (CWL) of 195 was conquered 🎯. These assessments have been based on technical indicators transparently described, providing specific price targets and invalidation levels to use as a reference for setting stop losses.

This level of specificity is the hallmark of this publication; it is easy to suggest that crypto or metals might bounce over the course of several months, but providing concrete, actionable levels is where the real value lies.