Gold Below $4,000! To Everyone Who Bought the Peak: How Are You Holding Up?
Gold has broken down.
On Wednesday, $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ fell below the $4,000/oz level for the first time since November 2025. From the record high of $5,594 reached in January, gold has now fallen nearly 29%.
London gold tells a similar story. In just 30 trading days, it dropped from around 4,700 to 3,980, a decline of roughly 16%. Although prices rebounded modestly today, with $GLD$ trading around $368, the overall trend has clearly turned lower.
Just two weeks ago, when we were discussing DBS's tokenized gold product, gold was still comfortably above 4,500. Now it's already below 4,000.
Why Did Gold Collapse So Quickly?
Higher rates. Stronger dollar.
The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption: the Federal Reserve would eventually begin cutting interest rates. Then everything changed.
The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns resurfaced, and central banks around the world—including the Fed—turned more hawkish. Markets quickly shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes.
When the original bullish narrative disappeared, gold naturally lost momentum.
Just one week ago, markets assigned only about a 9% probability of a July rate hike. Today that figure has climbed to roughly 35%. The probability of a September hike has jumped from 29% to around 70%.
For an asset that rallied largely on expectations of lower rates, that is a painful reversal.
A Stronger Dollar Makes It Even Worse
The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to 101.71 on Wednesday, its highest level in 13 months.
The euro fell below 1.134, sterling dropped to a seven-month low, the Australian dollar returned to April levels, and the Japanese yen weakened toward levels not seen since 1986.
Higher interest rates combined with a stronger dollar create one of the most difficult environments possible for a non-yielding asset like gold.
Is ETF Money Leaving?
According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs recorded 16 tonnes of net outflows in May, with selling continuing into early June before slowing somewhat last week. Standard Chartered estimates that, at current prices, more than 200 tonnes of gold held in global ETFs are now sitting on unrealized losses.
Major banks remain constructive over the long term, but many also acknowledge that weak ETF demand has become the biggest obstacle for gold. Morgan Stanley still sees potential for gold to reach $5,200 later this year—but only if ETF inflows return in force and lower oil prices revive expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Goldman Sachs has already lowered its year-end forecast. The main source of support remains central bank buying, which has continued despite the recent correction. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$
Everyone Loved Gold in January
Back then, the narrative seemed unstoppable.
De-dollarization + Fed rate cuts + Central bank purchases + Geopolitical tensions.
It felt like a once-in-a-decade bull market.
People lined up to buy jewelry. Some even emptied their savings to purchase physical gold and silver bars for long-term holding. Now, with rate-hike expectations replacing rate-cut expectations, many investors who bought near the highs are sitting on losses. Even Wall Street's language has changed. The story is no longer "structural bull market."
Now it's "macro headwinds," "technical breakdown," and "valuation reset." If the macro backdrop doesn't improve, gold falling toward 3,500—or even 3,000—is no longer unthinkable.
So Is This a Buying Opportunity?
Gold has now fallen below $4,000.
Is this an emotional overreaction creating a buying opportunity—or is there still further downside ahead?
If higher rate expectations and a stronger dollar are the main reasons behind the selloff, would falling oil prices and renewed hopes for Fed cuts be enough to restart the bull market?
If you wanted to add some gold exposure today, would you start buying gradually through physical gold, paper gold, DBS tokenized gold, or $GLD$—or would you rather wait until gold can reclaim the $4,000 level first?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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London gold tells a similar story. In just 30 trading days, it dropped from around 4,700 to 3,980, a decline of roughly 16%. Although prices rebounded modestly today, with $GLD$ trading around $368, the overall trend has clearly turned lower.
That said, I’m still constructive on gold over the long term. Central bank buying continues, geopolitical risks remain, and gold still plays an important role as a hedge. After the recent correction, valuations look much more reasonable than they did at the January peak.
My strategy would be to DCA gradually rather than wait for the perfect entry. I prefer $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ or DBS tokenized gold for convenience, while keeping some cash ready if prices fall further. A move back above 4,000 would be a positive signal, but I’m comfortable starting with a small position now.
@Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars
The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption: the Federal Reserve would eventually begin cutting interest rates. Then everything changed.
The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns resurfaced, and central banks around the world—including the Fed—turned more hawkish. Markets quickly shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes.
But let's be real. Governments print money like it is a hobby. Inflation may cool but it never disappears. Trade tensions, sanctions & geopolitical risks are not going away. They are multiplying.
Gold is the asset you hold when you believe the world will eventually remember that Paper money is a promise and Gold is real.
That is why I continue to hold $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ as it has a lower expense ratio of 0.25% compared to $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ 0.40%. It is simple, low cost & efficient. IAU is physically backed by real Gold, perfect for long term hedging.
IAU is my "calm in chaos" ETF - the one that just sits there, quietly protecting my purchasing power.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG
1. The decrease in price of gold is a buying opportunity with further price increases in the future
2. Higher interest rate expectations and higher inflation increase the price of gold. Falling oil prices would reduce inflation if this occurred
4. To add gold exposure $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ is an investment fund which holds gold