(Part 5 of 5) - My Investing Muse (22Jun2026)
My Investing Muse (22Jun2026)
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
Meta’s CTO says morale is near “the worst it’s ever been” — leadership will offer increased snack budgets to lift spirits.
Freight Distress Report: more carriers shut down, logistics firms cut jobs Bankruptcy filings from Texas to California were accompanied by hundreds of layoffs at Expeditors, Alan Ritchey, DHL and others - FreightWaves
My muse
The market is returning to a backdrop shaped by a peace deal that still lacks important details, alongside continued restrictions around access to the Straits of Hormuz. There also appear to be different interpretations of the agreement. In my view, this is consistent with the uncertainty we have seen since the start of the conflict, and I would not be surprised if tensions remain elevated.
AI Adoption and Costs
At the same time, there is growing pushback around AI adoption, largely due to rising costs. This raises a few practical questions: will it be more cost-effective to hire people for certain roles, or will businesses increasingly look toward more affordable Asian LLM models? One recent article highlighted the “compounding” losses faced by OpenAI, which reinforces a key concern for me: can this model become meaningfully profitable, or does profitability matter less than market dominance at this stage? As a more traditional investor, I find it difficult to commit capital to businesses with sustained losses and limited visibility on a clear path to profitability. For now, I prefer to monitor this area closely while maintaining some distance.
Although Anthropic continues to grow, it is also facing stronger competition from more affordable alternatives such as Qwen, Kimi, and DeepSeek. Over time, the United States may also encounter broader bottlenecks around energy, infrastructure, and computing capacity. These are areas I believe are worth monitoring. Even with some data centre projects being cancelled or delayed, demand for energy and infrastructure remains high, while supply continues to look constrained.
Market and weather concerns
There are also renewed warnings about a potential market crash, although such concerns have never fully disappeared. I still think this deserves some attention, and I would favour keeping some hedges in place. Beyond financial markets, natural disasters and other risks could become more prominent if a “Super El Niño” develops toward the end of the year. The potential impact on agriculture, food supply, and food security should not be overlooked, especially after the world has already faced disruptions to fertilisers, energy, and other essential supplies linked to the Middle East.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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