To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026)

Business Activity

· S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector.

· S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.

Housing and Energy Markets

· New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market.

· Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil majors view market consumption.

Inflation, Growth, and Labour Market Data

· Core PCE Price Index: The Core PCE Price Index will likely be the most closely watched release of the week. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, it will be central to expectations for future interest rate decisions. The May month-on-month forecast is 0.3%, slightly above the previous 0.2%. If realized, this would suggest that inflation in the United States remains stubborn.

· Q1 GDP: First-quarter GDP growth is forecast at 1.6%. Any meaningful variance from this estimate could trigger market volatility.

· Durable Goods Orders: May durable goods orders are forecast to decline by 4.7% month on month, pointing to weaker consumption trends.

· Initial Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims are forecast at 226,000. This remains an important labour market indicator for the Federal Reserve as it assesses the outlook for interest rates.

Earnings Calendar (22Jun2026)

I am interested in the earnings of FedEx, Carnival, Micron, Trip and BlackBerrry.

FedEx earnings serve as a primary health check for the global economy because the company moves millions of packages daily across more than 220 countries and territories. When businesses and consumers buy fewer goods, FedEx is often the first to notice.

FedEx is a market bellwether. As a Global Trade Barometer, Consumer Spending Pulse, Corporate Health Indicator, Transportation Sector Leader and Forward-Looking Guidance, their earnings tell a lot more about the economy than the performance of one company.

Valuation and Market Sentiment

The stock has risen 44.31% from a year ago. Technical analysis currently points to a “strong sell” recommendation, while analyst sentiment remains more constructive with a “buy” rating.

· Price target: $339.71, implying a potential upside of 4.14%.

· EPS: 18.93.

· PE ratio: 17.3.

Overall, the valuation appears reasonably attractive, although the mixed technical and analyst signals suggest that investors should weigh momentum risks against the company’s fundamental profile.

Income Statement Trends

For the annual financial period from May 2021 to May 2025, FedEx showed modest revenue growth, but profitability weakened over the same period.

· Total revenue: Increased from $83.9 billion in 2021 to $87.9 billion in 2025. The highest annual revenue during the period was in 2022, at $92.5 billion.

· Operating income: Declined from $7.9 billion in 2021 to $6.7 billion in 2025.

· Net income: Fell from $5.2 billion to $4.0 billion over the same period.

Balance Sheet Position

FedEx’s balance sheet expanded between 2021 and 2025, with both assets and equity increasing. However, debt also edged higher, which remains an area to monitor.

· Total assets: Increased from $82.7 billion to $87.6 billion.

· Total liabilities: Increased from $58.6 billion to $59.5 billion.

· Total equity: Increased from $24.1 billion to $28.0 billion.

· Total debt: Rose from $36.4 billion to $37.4 billion, which is a potential concern given the broader profitability trend.

Cash Flow Trends

Cash flow trends are more mixed. Operating cash flow has declined steadily over the past five years, which is a concern. Cash used in financing has continued to decrease, which may be less negative depending on the underlying drivers. Investing cash flow has remained negative, with annual outflows generally ranging between $4 billion and $6 billion.

FedEx News Q1/2026 (compiled by Gemini)

From January to March 2026, FedEx (NYSE: FDX) executed major structural shifts and delivered strong financial performance.

• Corporate Restructuring: FedEx advanced the spin-off of its Less-Than-Truckload segment, FedEx Freight, backed by a $3.7 billion notes issuance. It also joined a consortium to take European locker operator InPost private for €15.60 per share.

• Long-Term Targets: At its February Investor Day, management set a FY2029 revenue goal of $98 billion and projected a $3 billion operating income surge, driven by AI automation and network efficiency while capping FY2026 capital spending at $4.1 billion.

• Fiscal Q3 Earnings: March results beat expectations with revenue up 8% ($24.0 billion) and adjusted EPS up 16% ($5.25). Consequently, FedEx raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $19.30–$20.10.

• Regulatory & Operations: The company sued the U.S. government over Trump-era tariffs and updated global surcharges, balancing a $120 million drag from grounding its MD-11 fleet.

For the upcoming earnings, the EPS and Revenue forecasts are $5.92 and $24.01 billion, respectively.

With the above, FedEx can be an interesting consideration for our portfolios.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Jun2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.00, indicating the market has equal buying and selling momentum.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook. Give it time for the trend to play out.

Other Technical Analysis

Using “Daily” intervals, the technical indicators are showing a “Strong Buy” rating. 18 indicators have a “Buy” rating and 3 indicators have a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The market fell into the “Fear” zone with a score of 37.

Weekly Outlook

Based on the above, the S&P500 should be leaning Bearish entering the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Jun2026)

NSA Director Gen. Joshua Rudd claims Anthropic’s “MYTHOS” broke into America’s most sensitive classified systems in just a few hours.

Eric Schmidt saying the quiet part out loud: "What I don't like about [China's AI] is that it's all open source which means it's largely uncontrolled and not controlled in any way by us." He adds, "if that makes you feel any better," that only 2 or 3 countries can be independent AI powers. In other words, it's all about hegemony: the ideal scenario is a world where AI is controlled by the US - and the fewer countries that can resist that, the better.

GIC nears deal to offload US$2 billion in private credit stakes - The Business Times

Amazon, Walmart, Uber, Cisco, and Meta have all capped or limited employee AI usage this year. Uber burned through its entire 2026 AI budget by April and now limits employees to $1,500 a month per tool. Amazon told employees to stop using AI to game internal leaderboards. When Anthropic switched one software company from flat pricing to token-based billing, its AI costs jumped 7x in a single day. The CIO's response was "we created a monster." Altman admitted this month that cost has become a major problem for enterprise customers. - X user Hedgie

China’s property stock market

In a major blow to Sam Altman, Microsoft plans to move Copilot to usage-based pricing with open-source AI model DeepSeek instead of OpenAI due to costs.

Microsoft exploring DeepSeek over OpenAI and Anthropic as Copilot Cowork moves to usage-based pricing. “We have users who do hundreds of tasks a week… the consequence is the costs can go very high...” - X user NIK

My Investing Muse (22Jun2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Meta’s CTO says morale is near “the worst it’s ever been” — leadership will offer increased snack budgets to lift spirits.

Freight Distress Report: more carriers shut down, logistics firms cut jobs Bankruptcy filings from Texas to California were accompanied by hundreds of layoffs at Expeditors, Alan Ritchey, DHL and others - FreightWaves

My muse

The market is returning to a backdrop shaped by a peace deal that still lacks important details, alongside continued restrictions around access to the Straits of Hormuz. There also appear to be different interpretations of the agreement. In my view, this is consistent with the uncertainty we have seen since the start of the conflict, and I would not be surprised if tensions remain elevated.

AI Adoption and Costs

At the same time, there is growing pushback around AI adoption, largely due to rising costs. This raises a few practical questions: will it be more cost-effective to hire people for certain roles, or will businesses increasingly look toward more affordable Asian LLM models? One recent article highlighted the “compounding” losses faced by OpenAI, which reinforces a key concern for me: can this model become meaningfully profitable, or does profitability matter less than market dominance at this stage? As a more traditional investor, I find it difficult to commit capital to businesses with sustained losses and limited visibility on a clear path to profitability. For now, I prefer to monitor this area closely while maintaining some distance.

Although Anthropic continues to grow, it is also facing stronger competition from more affordable alternatives such as Qwen, Kimi, and DeepSeek. Over time, the United States may also encounter broader bottlenecks around energy, infrastructure, and computing capacity. These are areas I believe are worth monitoring. Even with some data centre projects being cancelled or delayed, demand for energy and infrastructure remains high, while supply continues to look constrained.

Market and weather concerns

There are also renewed warnings about a potential market crash, although such concerns have never fully disappeared. I still think this deserves some attention, and I would favour keeping some hedges in place. Beyond financial markets, natural disasters and other risks could become more prominent if a “Super El Niño” develops toward the end of the year. The potential impact on agriculture, food supply, and food security should not be overlooked, especially after the world has already faced disruptions to fertilisers, energy, and other essential supplies linked to the Middle East.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$FedEx(FDX)$