To The Moon

If you strip away the optics, the sequencing usually follows what can be signed quickly versus what requires regulatory clearance or political capital.

1) BA / GE – most immediate (highest probability) Aircraft orders are the cleanest “headline deliverable”. China can announce bulk orders for Boeing with engines tied to General Electric (GE Aerospace).

These deals are politically symbolic, commercially straightforward, and have precedent during state visits. Expect this first, possibly even during the visit.

2) MU / ILMN – medium-term (policy signalling first, fundamentals later) Micron Technology easing is plausible as a goodwill gesture. But actual earnings impact depends on procurement recovery, which takes quarters.

For Illumina, any thaw is slower. Genomics sits closer to national security sensitivities, so progress is incremental rather than headline-driven.

3) TSLA – conditional, regulatory lag Tesla FSD approval is the most market-sensitive, but also the least immediate. Even if discussions happen, China’s regulatory process, data localisation, and mapping constraints mean timelines are uncertain. You might get positive language, not approval.

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Bottom line:

Expect BA/GE headlines first, MU sentiment shift second, and TSLA optionality last.

The absence of NVIDIA and Google reinforces that this visit is skewed towards industrial and legacy tech détente, not frontier AI.