MIDDLE EAST SUMMARY (10-17 Mar 2026)
MIDDLE EAST SUMMARY
10–17 March 2026 | Days 10–17 of Operation Epic Fury
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⚔️ MILITARY — US/ISRAEL
- Iran fired 2,410 missiles and 3,560 drones since Day 1 — but launch rates have collapsed 90%+ as US/Israeli strikes systematically destroy capability. [FDD's Long War Journal](https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/israel-shifts-to-hyperlocal-targeting-in-iran-as-regime-military-power-degrades-march-11-13-updates.php)
- ~6,000 targets struck in Iran; 90+ Iranian vessels destroyed; 4,000–5,000 IRGC/Basij personnel killed. [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-13-of-us-israel-attacks)
- US war cost: $11.3B in the first six days. ~200 troops wounded; 6 killed. [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-13-of-us-israel-attacks)
- 14 March: US struck Kharg Island's runway, naval base, and air defences — military targets only, so far. Trump threatened to destroy oil infrastructure next if Iran doesn't reopen the strait. [Time](https://time.com/article/2026/03/14/kharg-island-trump-oil/)
- Israel shifted to hyperlocal targeting inside Tehran — Basij checkpoints and regime figures, guided by on-ground informants.
- 11 B-1 and 3 B-52 bombers pre-positioned at RAF Fairford, UK. A Marine Expeditionary Unit deployed to the region.
- US accidentally struck an Iranian elementary school on 28 February; preliminary findings point to outdated targeting data near an adjacent naval base. A major international flashpoint. [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/11/middleeast/us-israel-iran-middle-east-war-what-we-know-intl-hnk)
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🇮🇷 IRAN — LEADERSHIP & POSTURE
- Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader but has not appeared on camera. Rumoured injuries; possible transfer to Moscow for treatment. Trump said he heard Mojtaba "is not alive" — no evidence offered.
- FM Araghchi flat denial: "We have never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation. We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes." [Democracy Now!](https://www.democracynow.org/2026/3/16/headlines)
- Anti-regime protests flaring — Tehran residents chanting "Death to Mojtaba" from rooftops during drone attacks on 11 March. [FDD's Long War Journal](https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/israel-shifts-to-hyperlocal-targeting-in-iran-as-regime-military-power-degrades-march-11-13-updates.php)
- Russia sharing drone tactics and US military asset locations with Iran since Day 1 — the proxy dimension of this war is deepening. [Critical Threats](https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-11-2026)
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🚢 STRAIT OF HORMUZ
- Remains effectively closed to Western commercial traffic. Bypass pipelines cover only ~13% of normal flow.
- 10 March: Iran planted naval mines; US destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers. 11 March: Major vessel attack wave — Thai-flagged *Mayuree Naree* caught fire; 20 crew rescued. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
- 15–16 March: First crack — Aframax tanker *Karachi* transited with AIS active. India, Turkey, Pakistan also received selective passage. [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-oil-prices-strait-of-hormuz-trump-threat-kharg-island/)
- Iran's position now clarified: strait is "only closed to our enemies" — neutral nations can negotiate passage. [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/16/strait-of-hormuz-which-countriess-ships-has-iran-allowed-safe-passage-to) A diplomatic lever, not a blanket blockade.
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💥 GULF ATTACKS
- Sustained Iranian strikes across the region throughout the week.
- UAE intercepted 6 ballistic missiles, 7 cruise missiles, and 39 drones in a single wave on 11 March. Kuwait lost 6 electricity transmission lines to drone debris. [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-13-of-us-israel-attacks)
- Debris from an intercepted drone hit a UAE oil terminal, forcing temporary shutdown. [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/15/business/oil-prices-stocks-futures-iran) Dubai airport evacuated after drone strike on 16 March.
- Iraq suspended all oil terminal operations after two tankers attacked off its coast, killing one crew member. [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-13-of-us-israel-attacks)
- French soldier killed in attack on the French base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan. [Alma Research and Education Center](https://israel-alma.org/daily-report-the-second-iran-war-march-13-2026-1600/)
- Lebanon front opened: Israel launched "limited and targeted ground operations" against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on 16 March. [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-iran-war-trump-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-israel-lebanon-rcna263448) 630+ dead, 800,000 displaced in Lebanon.
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🛢️ ENERGY & ECONOMY
- US pump prices hit $3.72/gallon — up 74 cents since the war began. Largest monthly increase since Hurricane Katrina. [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/15/business/oil-prices-stocks-futures-iran) Brent hovering $100–106/bbl.
- IEA released 400 million barrels from global reserves — the largest coordinated SPR release in history. IMF warns every 10% energy price rise adds ~0.5% to global inflation. [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran)
- Bangladesh closing universities early; Pakistan and Philippines declared four-day work weeks to manage energy costs. [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran)
- US easing sanctions on Russian oil to stabilise markets — drawing sharp criticism from European allies. Russia's Kremlin quietly noted that rising prices "could boost Russian state revenues."
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🤝 DIPLOMACY & COALITION
- Trump demanded China, Japan, South Korea, France, UK send warships to Hormuz. Germany, Australia, Japan all declined. Germany: "This is not our war." [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/iran-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-11681879)
- EU foreign ministers voted against expanding naval operations around the strait. [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-16-26) UK and France "considering options."
- Trump delayed China trip. China called for "immediate cessation of military operations" — has not joined the coalition ask.
- Trump says Iran wants to negotiate. Iran's FM flatly denies it. Gulf Arab allies attempting mediation; Trump reportedly ignoring their overtures. [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/iran-negotiate-ceasefire-deal-trump-kharg-hormuz-oil-rcna263474)
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🔑 NET ASSESSMENT
Iran's military is being degraded fast but its will to fight remains intact. The selective reopening of the strait to neutral nations is the week's single most significant diplomatic signal — Iran is keeping a door ajar while missiles keep flying. Kharg Island's oil infrastructure is the next escalatory threshold. If struck, Iran has threatened to retaliate against energy facilities across the entire region. No ceasefire is in sight. Both sides are positioning for talks from strength. Minimum 2–4 more weeks of active conflict, most likely.
The above is compiled using LLM Claude.
My Ending Thoughts
America seems to be contemplating an exit. This is good for the market and thus, the rally last night. America was shocked by the retaliation from Iran and there seems to be concerns of dragging this further. This appears contradictory as there are indications of troops deployment into the region. More countries are starting to ration oil in their country as there is no end in sight. Sectors like Semiconductors and agriculture are affected by the region is one of key supplier of Helium (for semi-conductor) and fertilizers. Apart from the supply chain disruptions, let us not forget that most food in the Gulf States are imported. Let us continue to monitor the situation and look forward to a prompt resolution.
When in doubt, not trading can be a good move too.
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- CecilFranklin·03-17 13:50Solid analysis, mate. VOO holding steady for now. [吃瓜]LikeReport