The breakout is undeniably powerful, but whether it fuels an immediate follow-through gap higher depends on who is doing the buying next.
What we are seeing now looks like a classic late-cycle momentum chase. A large portion of the move is driven by sidelined capital capitulating, CTAs and trend followers flipping long, and systematic exposure rebuilding after the recent drawdown. That dynamic can still push indices higher in the near term, especially when positioning rather than fundamentals is the marginal driver.
That said, history suggests that breakouts to psychological milestones often invite short-term consolidation rather than a straight vertical continuation. With a substantial portion of annual returns already front-loaded, upside from here is likely to be more selective and narrower, rather than broad-based index surges.
On the dip-buying question, the recent selloff was more of a positioning reset than a macro breakdown, so buying high-quality leaders or structural winners on weakness made sense. Chasing strength after a near-vertical rebound is a very different risk profile.
In short:
Near-term upside is still possible on momentum and flows.
Risk-reward is no longer symmetric at index level.
Discipline matters more than conviction from here.
The next leg higher, if it comes, will need earnings follow-through rather than just positioning fuel.
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