(Part 5 of 5) - My investing muse (09Feb2026) - much contemplations
My Investing Muse
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
Yes, recent reports from sources like The Guardian and KWCH confirm the Washington Post is laying off about one-third of its staff across departments as of February 4, 2026. It has been owned by Jeff Bezos since 2013 - Grok
Amazon cuts nearly 2,200 Washington jobs - MacroEdge
Spoke to an exec at a Fortune 500 company that is undergoing significant layoffs, but hasn’t yet announced to that effect. It’s getting very rough out there for workers. - X user Andrew Yang
Canada’s economy lost 24,800 jobs in January. - X user Watcher Guru
JUST IN: In a bombshell announcement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has issued a dire warning: “the United Nations is on the brink of total collapse” if the United States, which contributes approximately $2.2 billion to the regular budget alone, does not give to the UN. - X user World News
From the news above, beyond the private sectors in America, international organisations like the United Nations (UN) are on the brink of collapse without America’s contributions.
Another indicator for Recession - Heavy Truck Sales
From X user Matt Giannino:
The recession indicator nobody’s watching just collapsed 32%. Heavy Truck Sales. When companies stop buying $150K trucks, they know something you don’t.
Here is the rule:
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Truck sales rising → Businesses expanding, economy strong
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Truck sales flat 3+ months → Warning, growth slowing
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Truck sales crashing 20%+ → Recession already here
Heavy truck sales just dropped 32% year-over-year—the steepest decline since 2009. 2008: Truck sales crashed 40% → Great Recession 2020: Truck sales crashed 35% → COVID recession 2024: Truck sales down 32% → ??? Trucking companies aren’t buying because freight demand is dying. Freight demand is dead because consumers stopped spending. Consumers stopped spending because they’re broke. This isn’t a leading indicator. This is a confirmation. The recession isn’t coming. It’s already here. Watch truck sales. Ignore the GDP “growth” numbers.
As a supply chain professional, there is validity to the observation made above. Supply chain is the blood of the economy, and such data can provide more insights about the actual economy. Inflation can mask the consumption if we look solely at monetary value. Let us consider other factors that include the tonnage of goods (Finished, intermediate, raw and packaging materials), the actual units of goods sold and the consumption of packaging materials. A recent WSJ article has revealed that Americans paid 96% of the $200 Billion tariffs.
With an uneven income distribution, it is unlikely that every socio-economic group will benefit from the increase in GDP or reported business revenue growth.
My Final Thoughts
US-Ukraine-Russia Peace Negotiations
Ongoing peace talks between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia are underway. Despite recent tensions, such as the downing of an Iranian drone, both parties remain committed to negotiating a resolution. These discussions also encompass topics like the Iranian nuclear program, adding complexity but underscoring the importance of diplomatic engagement at this time.
Political Developments in Japan
Japan is currently holding a snap election, which could introduce volatility in the markets. The results, expected soon, may lead to short-term uncertainty depending on the outcome and subsequent policy directions.
US Government and Economic Concerns
The US government faces the possibility of another partial shutdown due to ongoing budget disputes. Furthermore, delays in the release of economic data are raising concerns among analysts. There are also apprehensions regarding the Nipah virus, following alerts issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO).
Developments in the Epstein Case
Increased attention is being paid to the Epstein files, with growing implications for political, business, and societal leaders. The potential scope of involvement is broadening, which could lead to a significant impact across multiple sectors. Ongoing monitoring of these developments is recommended, as this situation could unfold into a major unforeseen event.
Iran’s Geopolitical Situation
It remains important to closely track events in Iran, given the potential for rapid escalation that could have far-reaching global consequences.
US Debt and Inflation Trends
The rising pipeline of delinquency in US student loans, mortgages, and automotive loans is drawing attention to the country’s debt situation. Additionally, the surge in M2 money supply to over $26 trillion continues to fuel inflationary pressures. While the Federal Reserve’s intention has been to reduce interest rates, persistent inflation may force a reconsideration, possibly resulting in additional interest rate hikes if inflation does not subside.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
