To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 09Feb2026)

Retail Sales

Retail sales data for December is scheduled for release, with the forecast indicating moderate growth at 0.4%. This suggests steady consumer spending as the year closes.

Labour Market Indicators

Average hourly earnings are expected to show a 0.3% increase, reflecting wage growth. The non-farm payrolls for January are forecasted at 70,000, highlighting a moderate pace of job creation. The unemployment rate for January is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month at 4.4%, signalling some stability in the labour market.

Energy and Bond Markets

Crude oil inventories previously saw a significant drawdown of over 3.4 million barrels. On the fixed income side, both the 10-year note and the 30-year bond auctions will take place. The results of these auctions are important, as rising yields compared to previous auctions may indicate a shift in investor preference toward safer assets.

Equities and Jobless Claims

The initial jobless claims forecast stands at 222,000. Deviations from this forecast could contribute to market volatility, as this metric is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve in its interest rate decision-making process.

Housing Market and Inflation

For existing home sales in January, the forecast is 4.22 million units, indicating the expected level of activity in the housing market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month. This inflation figure will be a key reference for the Federal Reserve as it considers its next steps regarding interest rates.

Earnings Calendar (09Feb2026)

There are a few interesting earnings in the coming week, which include Coca-Cola, Robinhood, CVS Health, Ford, Cisco, HubSpot, McDonald’s, Coinbase and Moderna. Let us take a look at Coinbase.

Over the past year, Coinbase’s stock price has experienced a sharp decline, falling by 41%. The company’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at approximately 14.29, which may indicate that the stock is valued attractively relative to its earnings.

Technical analysis currently suggests a “strong sell” recommendation for Coinbase, highlighting bearish momentum in the stock’s price action. In contrast, analyst sentiment is generally positive, with a consensus rating of “buy.” Furthermore, the average price target of $331.49 implies a substantial potential upside of 100.76% from current levels.

Revenue and Earnings

For the year ending December 31, 2021, Coinbase reported an annual revenue of $7.8 billion. The trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue stands lower, at $7.6 billion. Operating income for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2021, was $3.2 billion, while the TTM operating income decreased to $2.16 billion.

Earnings per share (EPS) for the TTM is $12.68, marking the second-highest value in the past five years. The highest EPS was recorded in 2021, reaching $17.47. The company also experienced a notable year-over-year increase in total assets by 52.79%, accompanied by a 44.77% rise in total liabilities.

Cash Flow Analysis

Despite the seemingly stable performance in revenue and earnings, a closer look at the cash flow reveals some areas of concern. Free cash flow (FCF) for the TTM dropped significantly to $325 million, compared to $2.55 billion in the previous fiscal year.

The TTM period also saw one of the lowest recorded operating cash flows for Coinbase. Additionally, there is increased concern due to a substantial rise in financing cash flow, which grew to $4 billion during the same period.

Coinbase News (from Gemini)

As of February 2026, Coinbase (COIN) is navigating significant market volatility ahead of its Q4 2025 earnings report scheduled for February 12. After a sharp 13% decline early in the month due to falling crypto prices and concerns over lower trading volumes, shares rebounded by roughly 10% on February 6 as Bitcoin stabilized near $69,500.

Notable activity includes Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest selling over $19 million in COIN shares—its first major sale of the year—while shifting funds into the exchange Bullish. On the regulatory front, a recent White House summit between crypto leaders and banking trades regarding stablecoin legislation ended without a deal, though participants called the talks “constructive.” Additionally, CFO Alesia Haas filed to sell approximately $55 million in stock following a February 6 option exercise.

The earnings forecast include $1.05 for EPS and $1.85B for revenue.

Given the recent volatility, I prefer to monitor the stock even thought this stands at an attractive valuation.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (09Feb2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting right on the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and probable changes to the short-term trend. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines have completed a converging pattern and are now showing a bearish outlook.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.11 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.

More Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, 17 indicators display a “Buy” rating, while 3 display a “Sell” rating. This leads to a “Strong Buy” rating based on the daily interval.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The CNN Fear & Greed Index registered a “45” rating, which is “neutral”. There seems to be a wedge forming for the index. Will there be a breakout soon?

Considering the above data, I lean towards a bearish outlook. Let us research before investing.

News and my thoughts from the past week (09Feb2026)

If Bitcoin hit $8K, Microstrategy will be completely liquidated - X user Zee

US M2 money supply is SKYROCKETING: The US money supply hit a record $26.7 TRILLION at the end of 2025. In 2.5 years, M2 has surged a massive $4 TRILLION. The value of the US Dollar is eroding at a record pace. - X user Global Markets Investor

A former World Bank president has sounded the alarm, revealing that the Federal Reserve has lost over a trillion dollars—and counting—turning it into nothing more than a massive hedge fund for the rich and powerful. He claims the Fed is borrowing money from banks at 5.4% interest, then pouring it into government bonds, creating the illusion that the government’s financial situation is better than it actually is. He warns that this scheme isn’t just limited to the U.S.—it’s happening across central banks worldwide. - X user Redpillbot

President Trump officially signs order allowing the US to impose an additional 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. - X user Watcher Guru

China declares a full-scale crackdown on cryptocurrencies. 1. No legal recognition of crypto as “money” 2. Any crypto-related business is a financial crime 3. Complete ban on foreign crypto services operating inside China - X user Crypto Rover

TOM LEE CRYPTO LOSS HITS -$8.2 BILLION USD - X user BitcoinLFG

MICHAEL BURRY, THE “BIG SHORT” INVESTOR, ISSUES WARNING: US FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY ARE HEADED FOR A CRASH. “THE SITUATION IS BEYOND RESCUE.”

US student loan delinquencies are exploding: The number of student loan borrowers that are severely delinquent is up to a record 3.62 million. The number of federal loan recipients 271+ days past due is now 8 TIMES higher than the pre-2020 average. This comes as the grace period ended in June 2025, when missed payments began appearing on credit reports. Meanwhile, the percentage of student loans transitioning into 90+ days of serious delinquency is up to 14.3%, an all-time high. This significantly exceeds the 2013 peak of 10.5% and 2008 levels of 7.5%. The student loan crisis is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

AI borrowing is skyrocketing: Big Tech firms issued a record $120 billion in corporate debt in 2025 to fund AI-related investments. Issuance surged +500% compared to 2024 levels. This is also more than in the four preceding years COMBINED. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Yes, recent reports from sources like The Guardian and KWCH confirm the Washington Post is laying off about one-third of its staff across departments as of February 4, 2026. It has been owned by Jeff Bezos since 2013 - Grok

Amazon cuts nearly 2,200 Washington jobs - MacroEdge

Spoke to an exec at a Fortune 500 company that is undergoing significant layoffs, but hasn’t yet announced to that effect. It’s getting very rough out there for workers. - X user Andrew Yang

Canada’s economy lost 24,800 jobs in January. - X user Watcher Guru

JUST IN: In a bombshell announcement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has issued a dire warning: “the United Nations is on the brink of total collapse” if the United States, which contributes approximately $2.2 billion to the regular budget alone, does not give to the UN. - X user World News

From the news above, beyond the private sectors in America, international organisations like the United Nations (UN) are on the brink of collapse without America’s contributions.

Another indicator for Recession - Heavy Truck Sales

From X user Matt Giannino:

The recession indicator nobody’s watching just collapsed 32%. Heavy Truck Sales. When companies stop buying $150K trucks, they know something you don’t.

Here is the rule:

• Truck sales rising → Businesses expanding, economy strong

• Truck sales flat 3+ months → Warning, growth slowing

• Truck sales crashing 20%+ → Recession already here

Heavy truck sales just dropped 32% year-over-year—the steepest decline since 2009. 2008: Truck sales crashed 40% → Great Recession 2020: Truck sales crashed 35% → COVID recession 2024: Truck sales down 32% → ??? Trucking companies aren’t buying because freight demand is dying. Freight demand is dead because consumers stopped spending. Consumers stopped spending because they’re broke. This isn’t a leading indicator. This is a confirmation. The recession isn’t coming. It’s already here. Watch truck sales. Ignore the GDP “growth” numbers.

As a supply chain professional, there is validity to the observation made above. Supply chain is the blood of the economy, and such data can provide more insights about the actual economy. Inflation can mask the consumption if we look solely at monetary value. Let us consider other factors that include the tonnage of goods (Finished, intermediate, raw and packaging materials), the actual units of goods sold and the consumption of packaging materials. A recent WSJ article has revealed that Americans paid 96% of the $200 Billion tariffs.

With an uneven income distribution, it is unlikely that every socio-economic group will benefit from the increase in GDP or reported business revenue growth.

My Final Thoughts

US-Ukraine-Russia Peace Negotiations

Ongoing peace talks between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia are underway. Despite recent tensions, such as the downing of an Iranian drone, both parties remain committed to negotiating a resolution. These discussions also encompass topics like the Iranian nuclear program, adding complexity but underscoring the importance of diplomatic engagement at this time.

Political Developments in Japan

Japan is currently holding a snap election, which could introduce volatility in the markets. The results, expected soon, may lead to short-term uncertainty depending on the outcome and subsequent policy directions.

US Government and Economic Concerns

The US government faces the possibility of another partial shutdown due to ongoing budget disputes. Furthermore, delays in the release of economic data are raising concerns among analysts. There are also apprehensions regarding the Nipah virus, following alerts issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Developments in the Epstein Case

Increased attention is being paid to the Epstein files, with growing implications for political, business, and societal leaders. The potential scope of involvement is broadening, which could lead to a significant impact across multiple sectors. Ongoing monitoring of these developments is recommended, as this situation could unfold into a major unforeseen event.

Iran’s Geopolitical Situation

It remains important to closely track events in Iran, given the potential for rapid escalation that could have far-reaching global consequences.

US Debt and Inflation Trends

The rising pipeline of delinquency in US student loans, mortgages, and automotive loans is drawing attention to the country’s debt situation. Additionally, the surge in M2 money supply to over $26 trillion continues to fuel inflationary pressures. While the Federal Reserve’s intention has been to reduce interest rates, persistent inflation may force a reconsideration, possibly resulting in additional interest rate hikes if inflation does not subside.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$