This looks less like a clean regime shift and more like a classic relief rally layered on fragile foundations.
Equities:
The breadth and magnitude of the rebound point to forced positioning rather than fresh conviction. CTA de-risking, short covering and options gamma effects likely amplified the move, especially in Big Tech. That explains the speed. It does not yet explain durability. A true risk-on reversal typically follows stabilising macro signals, not precedes them.
Precious metals:
Gold and silver rallying alongside equities is telling. In a healthy risk-on phase, gold usually lags. Here, gold strength suggests continued demand for protection against policy uncertainty and liquidity stress. Silver’s outsized move looks more like a volatility snapback after capitulation, not a clean industrial optimism signal.
Crypto:
Bitcoin reclaiming $68k after a sub-$61k flush fits a deleveraging-reset narrative. The bounce reflects liquidation exhaustion and tactical dip-buying, rather than renewed structural inflows. If this were durable liquidity expansion, you would expect steadier follow-through and improving breadth across risk assets, not sharp air-pocket recoveries.
Bottom line:
This is a powerful relief bounce, not yet a confirmed risk-on turn. Cross-asset behaviour still points to latent instability, with liquidity uneven and confidence conditional. For confirmation, watch whether equities hold gains without renewed volatility, and whether gold can cool while growth assets extend. Until then, caution remains warranted.
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