Actually the report is back da-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

2
1
Favorite

Guavaxf3006
02-06

Actually the report is back dated. It was for the period which ended in December 25.

The situstion is very much worst now as Bitcoin has fallen very much more since then.

And coupled with this are the share price of Strategy which has fallen at a faster pace than the fall in Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin does not show a spectacular recover by the end of March, MSTR will show an even greater and spectacular loss. This will trigger a sale of it's Bitcoin treasury and at a much much lower price, which in turn will show even greater loss in their balance sheet.

Possibly drive MSTR into a distress situation. Michael Saylor will then likely raid theIr so called cash reserve that was supposed to be used to pay dividends.

If this happens, MSTR will be in default to the holders of notes they have issued.

Slippery slope. Very slippery slope.

Strategy Reports Massive Loss as Bitcoin Plunge Tests Core Business Model

Turmoil in the digital asset market is intensifying as Bitcoin's price falls below critical support levels, placing immense pressure on Strategy (MSTR), a company at the epicenter of the storm. The...

Strategy Reports Massive Loss as Bitcoin Plunge Tests Core Business Model

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

2

Report

Comment（1）

Top
Latest

LouisLowell
·02-06
Bloody hell! If Bitcoin doesn't rally, MSTR could crash hard. So nerve-wracking. [惊讶]
Reply
Like
Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":529684318262520,"tweetId":"529684318262520","gmtCreate":1770339160304,"gmtModify":1770367346329,"author":{"id":3576140222331577,"idStr":"3576140222331577","authorId":3576140222331577,"authorIdStr":"3576140222331577","name":"Guavaxf3006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff15ff6aa254c9130f9af922f7e2447","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.02.11","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":298,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Actually the report is back dated. It was for the period which ended in December 25.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The situstion is very much worst now as Bitcoin has fallen very much more since then.</p>\n<p>And coupled with this are the share price of Strategy which has fallen at a faster pace than the fall in Bitcoin.</p>\n<p>If Bitcoin does not show a spectacular recover by the end of March, MSTR will show an even greater and spectacular loss. This will trigger a sale of it's Bitcoin treasury and at a much much lower price, which in turn will show even greater loss in their balance sheet.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Possibly drive MSTR into a distress situation. Michael Saylor will then likely raid theIr so called cash reserve that was supposed to be used to pay dividends.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If this&nbsp;happens, MSTR will be in default to the holders of notes they have issued.</p>\n<p>Slippery slope. Very slippery slope.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Actually the report is back dated. It was for the period which ended in December 25.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The situstion is very much worst now as Bitcoin has fallen very much more since then.</p>\n<p>And coupled with this are the share price of Strategy which has fallen at a faster pace than the fall in Bitcoin.</p>\n<p>If Bitcoin does not show a spectacular recover by the end of March, MSTR will show an even greater and spectacular loss. This will trigger a sale of it's Bitcoin treasury and at a much much lower price, which in turn will show even greater loss in their balance sheet.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Possibly drive MSTR into a distress situation. Michael Saylor will then likely raid theIr so called cash reserve that was supposed to be used to pay dividends.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If this&nbsp;happens, MSTR will be in default to the holders of notes they have issued.</p>\n<p>Slippery slope. Very slippery slope.</p></body></html>","text":"Actually the report is back dated. It was for the period which ended in December 25. The situstion is very much worst now as Bitcoin has fallen very much more since then. And coupled with this are the share price of Strategy which has fallen at a faster pace than the fall in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin does not show a spectacular recover by the end of March, MSTR will show an even greater and spectacular loss. This will trigger a sale of it's Bitcoin treasury and at a much much lower price, which in turn will show even greater loss in their balance sheet. Possibly drive MSTR into a distress situation. Michael Saylor will then likely raid theIr so called cash reserve that was supposed to be used to pay dividends. If this happens, MSTR will be in default to the holders of notes they have issued. Slippery slope. Very slippery slope.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/529684318262520","repostId":1161362406,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161362406","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Global Stock Market Deep Analysis","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Deep News","id":"1039043262","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922"},"pubTimestamp":1770338541,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161362406?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-02-06 08:42","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Strategy Reports Massive Loss as Bitcoin Plunge Tests Core Business Model","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161362406","media":"Deep News","summary":"Turmoil in the digital asset market is intensifying as Bitcoin's price falls below critical support levels, placing immense pressure on Strategy (MSTR), a company at the epicenter of the storm. The...","content":"<p>Turmoil in the digital asset market is intensifying as Bitcoin's price falls below critical support levels, placing immense pressure on Strategy (MSTR), a company at the epicenter of the storm.</p>\n<p>The firm, founded by Michael Saylor, confirmed on Thursday a net loss of $12.4 billion for the fourth quarter, driven primarily by a significant write-down in the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings. The loss was largely attributable to an unrealized fair value loss of $17.4 billion, mandated by mark-to-market accounting rules.</p>\n<p>As Bitcoin dropped below $63,000, Strategy's stock plummeted 17.1% on Thursday. This not only erased all gains made following the U.S. election but also pushed the stock nearly 80% below its November 2024 all-time high.</p>\n<p>The company's Bitcoin holdings are now valued at approximately $46 billion, with an average purchase cost of $76,052 per coin. This marks the first time since 2023 that the market value of its Bitcoin portfolio has fallen below its cumulative cost basis.</p>\n<p>Confronting the market downturn, Michael Saylor acknowledged during an earnings call that \"selling Bitcoin is an option,\" despite his public exhortations on social media platform X to \"HODL\" (hold on for dear life).</p>\n<p>Adding to market unease, the self-reinforcing cycle of using equity premiums to fund further Bitcoin purchases has stalled. With the company's cost basis now exceeding the market price for the first time, its financial experiment faces a severe test.</p>\n<p>As MSTR's stock price collapses, convertible bond investors are likely to seek early cash redemption rather than conversion. An initial $1 billion redemption could be due by September 15, 2027, with another $6.4 billion potentially due in 2028, bringing the total potential cash demand to $8.2 billion.</p>\n<p>The logic behind using financing to buy Bitcoin is being tested. Strategy had served as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin, with its stock surging over 3500% between 2020 and 2024. However, this engine was built on shaky ground. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs provided investors with cheaper, more direct exposure, diminishing Strategy's unique appeal.</p>\n<p>More critically, the valuation premium has collapsed. Strategy's enterprise value once approached twice the value of its Bitcoin holdings, but this premium has now nearly vanished. If Bitcoin prices remain at current levels, Strategy's market capitalization would only need to fall by approximately 13% more for the premium to be completely eliminated. Should the ratio of enterprise value to crypto assets (mNAV) fall below 1, indicating the company is worth less than the Bitcoin it holds, the core financing model would be rendered entirely ineffective.</p>\n<p>During the post-earnings call, CEO Phong Le attempted to reassure investors, stating, \"This is your first downturn, my advice is to hold on.\" However, this comment sparked anger in the live stream's comment section. Benchmark Co. analyst Mark Palmer noted that the market's focus has shifted to how the company will raise funds under these challenging conditions.</p>\n<p>The deteriorating financial data has heightened concerns about Strategy's solvency. Data shows that as of February 1, the company held over 713,000 Bitcoins with an average cost basis of $76,052. With Bitcoin trading significantly below this cost level, Strategy is technically insolvent on paper.</p>\n<p>Strategy carries $8.2 billion in convertible debt. While Saylor emphasized the company has a $2.25 billion cash reserve, sufficient to cover interest and dividend payments for the next two years with no margin call risk, market worries persist.</p>\n<p>The structure of Strategy's convertible bonds reveals different pressure points. The $1.01 billion convertible bond issued in September 2024 has a conversion price of $183.19, with holders able to exercise a put option on September 15, 2027. The $3 billion zero-coupon convertible bond issued in November 2024 has a high conversion price of $672.40, with a put option available on June 1, 2028. Additionally, several other bonds with conversion prices ranging from $149.77 to $433.43 will face put pressure in 2028.</p>\n<p>S&P Global had previously warned that severe pressure on Bitcoin prices at debt maturity could force the company to liquidate assets at low levels, an event that would be viewed as a debt restructuring \"tantamount to default.\"</p>\n<p>Phong Le admitted on the call that if Bitcoin were to fall by 90%, the company would be unable to repay its debt solely by selling Bitcoin and would have to seek debt restructuring.</p>\n<p>Despite the pressure, Saylor maintained an optimistic stance on the earnings call. \"We have a crypto president who is determined to make America the Bitcoin superpower, the world's crypto capital, and a leader in digital assets,\" Saylor stated. \"You cannot underestimate the importance of having support for this industry and digital capital at the highest level of the political structure.\"</p>\n<p>Saylor also downplayed the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin, calling it \"FUD\" (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) and stating the threat is \"at least 10 years away.\" He reiterated his consistent position that selling Bitcoin remains one option among others to respond to market conditions.</p>\n<p>Strategy reiterated on Thursday that it does not expect to generate net income or profit for the current year or the foreseeable future. Based on these expectations, the company stated that current distributions to perpetual preferred shareholders are expected to be tax-free.</p>\n<p>However, prominent short-sellers like Michael Burry have issued sterner warnings. According to Bloomberg, Burry reiterated his scrutiny of Strategy this week, warning that Bitcoin's decline could trigger a \"death spiral\" among corporate holders. This view aligns with long-time critics like Jim Chanos, who have long pointed out the risks of Strategy's reliance on non-yielding assets and speculative leverage.</p>\n<p>While management attempts to maintain an optimistic tone and describes profitability as a distant prospect, investors are facing a harsh reality check with Bitcoin trading below cost and financing avenues narrowing.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategy Reports Massive Loss as Bitcoin Plunge Tests Core Business Model</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategy Reports Massive Loss as Bitcoin Plunge Tests Core Business Model\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1039043262\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Deep News </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-06 08:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Turmoil in the digital asset market is intensifying as Bitcoin's price falls below critical support levels, placing immense pressure on Strategy (MSTR), a company at the epicenter of the storm.</p>\n<p>The firm, founded by Michael Saylor, confirmed on Thursday a net loss of $12.4 billion for the fourth quarter, driven primarily by a significant write-down in the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings. The loss was largely attributable to an unrealized fair value loss of $17.4 billion, mandated by mark-to-market accounting rules.</p>\n<p>As Bitcoin dropped below $63,000, Strategy's stock plummeted 17.1% on Thursday. This not only erased all gains made following the U.S. election but also pushed the stock nearly 80% below its November 2024 all-time high.</p>\n<p>The company's Bitcoin holdings are now valued at approximately $46 billion, with an average purchase cost of $76,052 per coin. This marks the first time since 2023 that the market value of its Bitcoin portfolio has fallen below its cumulative cost basis.</p>\n<p>Confronting the market downturn, Michael Saylor acknowledged during an earnings call that \"selling Bitcoin is an option,\" despite his public exhortations on social media platform X to \"HODL\" (hold on for dear life).</p>\n<p>Adding to market unease, the self-reinforcing cycle of using equity premiums to fund further Bitcoin purchases has stalled. With the company's cost basis now exceeding the market price for the first time, its financial experiment faces a severe test.</p>\n<p>As MSTR's stock price collapses, convertible bond investors are likely to seek early cash redemption rather than conversion. An initial $1 billion redemption could be due by September 15, 2027, with another $6.4 billion potentially due in 2028, bringing the total potential cash demand to $8.2 billion.</p>\n<p>The logic behind using financing to buy Bitcoin is being tested. Strategy had served as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin, with its stock surging over 3500% between 2020 and 2024. However, this engine was built on shaky ground. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs provided investors with cheaper, more direct exposure, diminishing Strategy's unique appeal.</p>\n<p>More critically, the valuation premium has collapsed. Strategy's enterprise value once approached twice the value of its Bitcoin holdings, but this premium has now nearly vanished. If Bitcoin prices remain at current levels, Strategy's market capitalization would only need to fall by approximately 13% more for the premium to be completely eliminated. Should the ratio of enterprise value to crypto assets (mNAV) fall below 1, indicating the company is worth less than the Bitcoin it holds, the core financing model would be rendered entirely ineffective.</p>\n<p>During the post-earnings call, CEO Phong Le attempted to reassure investors, stating, \"This is your first downturn, my advice is to hold on.\" However, this comment sparked anger in the live stream's comment section. Benchmark Co. analyst Mark Palmer noted that the market's focus has shifted to how the company will raise funds under these challenging conditions.</p>\n<p>The deteriorating financial data has heightened concerns about Strategy's solvency. Data shows that as of February 1, the company held over 713,000 Bitcoins with an average cost basis of $76,052. With Bitcoin trading significantly below this cost level, Strategy is technically insolvent on paper.</p>\n<p>Strategy carries $8.2 billion in convertible debt. While Saylor emphasized the company has a $2.25 billion cash reserve, sufficient to cover interest and dividend payments for the next two years with no margin call risk, market worries persist.</p>\n<p>The structure of Strategy's convertible bonds reveals different pressure points. The $1.01 billion convertible bond issued in September 2024 has a conversion price of $183.19, with holders able to exercise a put option on September 15, 2027. The $3 billion zero-coupon convertible bond issued in November 2024 has a high conversion price of $672.40, with a put option available on June 1, 2028. Additionally, several other bonds with conversion prices ranging from $149.77 to $433.43 will face put pressure in 2028.</p>\n<p>S&P Global had previously warned that severe pressure on Bitcoin prices at debt maturity could force the company to liquidate assets at low levels, an event that would be viewed as a debt restructuring \"tantamount to default.\"</p>\n<p>Phong Le admitted on the call that if Bitcoin were to fall by 90%, the company would be unable to repay its debt solely by selling Bitcoin and would have to seek debt restructuring.</p>\n<p>Despite the pressure, Saylor maintained an optimistic stance on the earnings call. \"We have a crypto president who is determined to make America the Bitcoin superpower, the world's crypto capital, and a leader in digital assets,\" Saylor stated. \"You cannot underestimate the importance of having support for this industry and digital capital at the highest level of the political structure.\"</p>\n<p>Saylor also downplayed the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin, calling it \"FUD\" (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) and stating the threat is \"at least 10 years away.\" He reiterated his consistent position that selling Bitcoin remains one option among others to respond to market conditions.</p>\n<p>Strategy reiterated on Thursday that it does not expect to generate net income or profit for the current year or the foreseeable future. Based on these expectations, the company stated that current distributions to perpetual preferred shareholders are expected to be tax-free.</p>\n<p>However, prominent short-sellers like Michael Burry have issued sterner warnings. According to Bloomberg, Burry reiterated his scrutiny of Strategy this week, warning that Bitcoin's decline could trigger a \"death spiral\" among corporate holders. This view aligns with long-time critics like Jim Chanos, who have long pointed out the risks of Strategy's reliance on non-yielding assets and speculative leverage.</p>\n<p>While management attempts to maintain an optimistic tone and describes profitability as a distant prospect, investors are facing a harsh reality check with Bitcoin trading below cost and financing avenues narrowing.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSTP":"2倍做多MSTR ETF-GraniteShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","07799":"南方两倍做多MSTR","MSOO":"2倍上限加速MSTR ETF-Leverage Shares","LMI3.UK":"GRANITESHARES 3X LONG MSTR DAILY ETP","MSTR":"Strategy","MSTU":"2倍做多MSTR ETF-T-Rex","09799":"南方两倍做多MSTR-U","APED":"STKd 100% MSTR & 100% COIN ETF","MTYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST MSTR ETF","BK4516":"特朗普概念","MSTW":"Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF","MSTY.UK":"YIELDMAX MSTR OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETC","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","MSTX":"2倍做多MSTR ETF-Defiance","WNTR":"做空MSTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BK4600":"加密货币概念","MSTY":"MSTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BK4588":"碎股","MSST":"YieldMax MSTR Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","09399":"南方两倍做空MSTR-U","MSTZ":"2倍做空MSTR ETF-T-Rex","MST":"做多杠杆+收益MSTR ETF-Defiance","BK4595":"比特币概念","3SMI.UK":"GRANITESHARES 3X SHORT MSTR DAILY ETP","IMST":"MSTR期权收益策略ETF-Bitwise","SMI3.UK":"GRANITESHARES 3X SHORT MSTR DAILY ETP","MSII":"REX MSTR Growth & Income ETF","BK4023":"应用软件","07399":"南方两倍做空MSTR","SMST":"2倍做空MSTR ETF-Defiance","3LMI.UK":"GRANITESHARES 3X LONG MSTR DAILY ETP","MSTK":"Tuttle Capital MSTR 0DTE Covered Call ETF","MSDD":"2倍做空MSTR ETF-GraniteShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161362406","content_text":"Turmoil in the digital asset market is intensifying as Bitcoin's price falls below critical support levels, placing immense pressure on Strategy (MSTR), a company at the epicenter of the storm.\nThe firm, founded by Michael Saylor, confirmed on Thursday a net loss of $12.4 billion for the fourth quarter, driven primarily by a significant write-down in the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings. The loss was largely attributable to an unrealized fair value loss of $17.4 billion, mandated by mark-to-market accounting rules.\nAs Bitcoin dropped below $63,000, Strategy's stock plummeted 17.1% on Thursday. This not only erased all gains made following the U.S. election but also pushed the stock nearly 80% below its November 2024 all-time high.\nThe company's Bitcoin holdings are now valued at approximately $46 billion, with an average purchase cost of $76,052 per coin. This marks the first time since 2023 that the market value of its Bitcoin portfolio has fallen below its cumulative cost basis.\nConfronting the market downturn, Michael Saylor acknowledged during an earnings call that \"selling Bitcoin is an option,\" despite his public exhortations on social media platform X to \"HODL\" (hold on for dear life).\nAdding to market unease, the self-reinforcing cycle of using equity premiums to fund further Bitcoin purchases has stalled. With the company's cost basis now exceeding the market price for the first time, its financial experiment faces a severe test.\nAs MSTR's stock price collapses, convertible bond investors are likely to seek early cash redemption rather than conversion. An initial $1 billion redemption could be due by September 15, 2027, with another $6.4 billion potentially due in 2028, bringing the total potential cash demand to $8.2 billion.\nThe logic behind using financing to buy Bitcoin is being tested. Strategy had served as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin, with its stock surging over 3500% between 2020 and 2024. However, this engine was built on shaky ground. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs provided investors with cheaper, more direct exposure, diminishing Strategy's unique appeal.\nMore critically, the valuation premium has collapsed. Strategy's enterprise value once approached twice the value of its Bitcoin holdings, but this premium has now nearly vanished. If Bitcoin prices remain at current levels, Strategy's market capitalization would only need to fall by approximately 13% more for the premium to be completely eliminated. Should the ratio of enterprise value to crypto assets (mNAV) fall below 1, indicating the company is worth less than the Bitcoin it holds, the core financing model would be rendered entirely ineffective.\nDuring the post-earnings call, CEO Phong Le attempted to reassure investors, stating, \"This is your first downturn, my advice is to hold on.\" However, this comment sparked anger in the live stream's comment section. Benchmark Co. analyst Mark Palmer noted that the market's focus has shifted to how the company will raise funds under these challenging conditions.\nThe deteriorating financial data has heightened concerns about Strategy's solvency. Data shows that as of February 1, the company held over 713,000 Bitcoins with an average cost basis of $76,052. With Bitcoin trading significantly below this cost level, Strategy is technically insolvent on paper.\nStrategy carries $8.2 billion in convertible debt. While Saylor emphasized the company has a $2.25 billion cash reserve, sufficient to cover interest and dividend payments for the next two years with no margin call risk, market worries persist.\nThe structure of Strategy's convertible bonds reveals different pressure points. The $1.01 billion convertible bond issued in September 2024 has a conversion price of $183.19, with holders able to exercise a put option on September 15, 2027. The $3 billion zero-coupon convertible bond issued in November 2024 has a high conversion price of $672.40, with a put option available on June 1, 2028. Additionally, several other bonds with conversion prices ranging from $149.77 to $433.43 will face put pressure in 2028.\nS&P Global had previously warned that severe pressure on Bitcoin prices at debt maturity could force the company to liquidate assets at low levels, an event that would be viewed as a debt restructuring \"tantamount to default.\"\nPhong Le admitted on the call that if Bitcoin were to fall by 90%, the company would be unable to repay its debt solely by selling Bitcoin and would have to seek debt restructuring.\nDespite the pressure, Saylor maintained an optimistic stance on the earnings call. \"We have a crypto president who is determined to make America the Bitcoin superpower, the world's crypto capital, and a leader in digital assets,\" Saylor stated. \"You cannot underestimate the importance of having support for this industry and digital capital at the highest level of the political structure.\"\nSaylor also downplayed the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin, calling it \"FUD\" (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) and stating the threat is \"at least 10 years away.\" He reiterated his consistent position that selling Bitcoin remains one option among others to respond to market conditions.\nStrategy reiterated on Thursday that it does not expect to generate net income or profit for the current year or the foreseeable future. Based on these expectations, the company stated that current distributions to perpetual preferred shareholders are expected to be tax-free.\nHowever, prominent short-sellers like Michael Burry have issued sterner warnings. According to Bloomberg, Burry reiterated his scrutiny of Strategy this week, warning that Bitcoin's decline could trigger a \"death spiral\" among corporate holders. This view aligns with long-time critics like Jim Chanos, who have long pointed out the risks of Strategy's reliance on non-yielding assets and speculative leverage.\nWhile management attempts to maintain an optimistic tone and describes profitability as a distant prospect, investors are facing a harsh reality check with Bitcoin trading below cost and financing avenues narrowing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MST":1,"07799":1,"MSTR":1,"MSTU":1,"MSII":1,"MSTY.UK":1,"3LMI.UK":1,"MSST":1,"WNTR":1,"MTYY":1,"SMST":1,"MSTP":1,"07399":1,"SMI3.UK":1,"MSOO":1,"MSTK":1,"IMST":1,"09799":1,"MSTX":1,"LMI3.UK":1,"APED":1,"MSTY":1,"MSTW":1,"09399":1,"3SMI.UK":1,"MSTZ":1,"MSDD":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["09008","03042","MSTR","03008","BTC.USD.CC","03439","BTC.USD.HKCC","09439"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":682,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":529803604173520,"commentId":"529803604173520","gmtCreate":1770368259460,"gmtModify":1770370215433,"authorId":9000000000000500,"author":{"id":9000000000000500,"idStr":"9000000000000500","authorId":9000000000000500,"name":"LouisLowell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a51412b5aac615981882d381acd5a334","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":529684318262520,"objectIdStr":"529684318262520","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Bloody hell! If Bitcoin doesn't rally, MSTR could crash hard. So nerve-wracking. [惊讶]","text":"Bloody hell! If Bitcoin doesn't rally, MSTR could crash hard. So nerve-wracking. [惊讶]","html":"Bloody hell! If Bitcoin doesn't rally, MSTR could crash hard. So nerve-wracking. [惊讶]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}