To The Moon

$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$  A sense of caution is happening right now. Treasury yields are crazy high and Micron's share price fell even after posting stellar results.  I feel money is being taken off the table now.

It is actually more scary that the market has not reacted worst after seeing this. It can only mean that much of the retail crowd is ignoring real facts and are not realising the true impact on the finance liquidity that this will lead to. And when the impact is felt, the correction of the market won't be just a correction.

‌ W‌hat a dissappointing response to an otherwise good result announcement. This is again putting forth the question about valuation and the price-to-perfection theory that is abound. A Blackrock analyst has just made this comment on Bloomberg that Blackrock is pivoting away from the Ai plays. The feeling is, it has already hit the pinnacle value, and what was not said could also be the professionals are feeling it has gone beyond true value. This is the only explanation I can think of for all the poor price responses we have been seeing after the AI companies made otherwise stellar results and forward projections. The market has already priced in all possible good news.

$Micron Technology(MU)$  Maybe too early to call but the response to earnings and projevtions seem to suggest a sell-on-news mode is very much still in play. Same as was for NVDA and others like MRVL, CRWV, etc.

Nasdaq/DOW/S&P I personally feel there is a large amount of exuberance in the markets right now. With all the data giving warning lights, the markets are still reaching higher. All this feels awfully familiar. In 2000, just before the dot.com burst, it was exactly like this. And it repeated in 2028, before the Sub-prime implosion. Guys, nothing wrong to take profits. Better to miss the boat with some money, that to lose it all.  You can always join in again if you have cash on hand. But you are dead if you are broke and in debt. Just sharing my personal view.

This is one reason why many have called for sfaety checks and enhancements to the way AI is allowed to act.  And there is also the truth that AI breaks copyright laws in sourcing information. The way they operate is they scoured whatever information is available in the web (including hacking into non-public sites) to deliver the information requested by users.  So how does this speak into PDPA laws? It's a brave new world which many are rushing into without considering the full impact on society.

This is not surprising and I did see this happen when they first announced their last quarter results. The worry here is this did not just happen to Oracle, but also Marvell, Coreweave, Nividia, etc. All annouced sterling results which mostly beat revious results but also expectations of analyst. What this may suggest is, the market is completely out of sync with reality and much of today's valuation is really unrealistic. And also, the market is very very retail driven. This is dangerous as these are people who are mostly sheep following the calls of investment "gurus". And they are the ones who are buying with borrowed funds. Look what happened to the KOSPI last month to understand what is happening. And with the bond yields going nuts, plus Kezin Walsh now expected to raise rates, not o

$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$  Daily high above $227 and closing at $221. Still up for the day versus previous day but what a dramatic movement.  This is quite normal for MRVL. But one thing I am noticing is since it's high about a month ago, when Huang called it the next trillion $ company, it's been a steady retreat. What happens if the AI boom really disappears. Or even gets delayed about some are calling for now?  Scary thought. 

US Treasury's Yields Top 5% This from Bloomberg news just released. "It was a bit of a bad-news Monday for the US economy as 10-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% for the first time since 2023, worsening the collision between rising inflation and swelling government and corporate borrowing." This is bad news for stocks as it means the money market is straining and liquidity is drawing away from private debts. And with hotter inflation, plus relatively strong job markets, the likelyhood of the Fed having to raise interest rates more than just once this year is higher. September is really going to be bad again.

Donald Trump may have to place Kevin Walsh under arrest now. Before he makes any decision....