Software Selloff vs. Walmart $1T: Start of the “Software Death Loop”?
Software Stocks Crash as Walmart Hits $1 Trillion! Is this the biggest market shift of 2025?
The market is showing a brutal split right now:
Software stocks are getting crushed. While $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ just crossed a $1 trillion market cap, up ~14% YTD — outperforming Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon
1) What happened: software names got hit hard
One of the biggest triggers behind this selloff is the market repricing how fast AI could disrupt parts of the software stack.
After new developments around Anthropic’s Claude (and the broader narrative that AI tools can increasingly replace knowledge-work workflows), investors started questioning:
How much of “software value” is truly defensible anymore? Damage report (single day): ~$285B market cap wiped out
Some notable moves:
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$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ down ~14%
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$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ & $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ -5%, and 10%
The market fear is simple:
If AI can do parts of what software does, then what’s the moat?
2) Jensen Huang’s response: AI won’t replace software
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on the most extreme version of the narrative, calling the “AI replaces software” idea illogical.
His point is practical: AI is more like an efficiency layer, not a full replacement. You don’t rebuild Excel from scratch just because AI exists. But the key is:
Only the strongest software categories will survive as “must-haves.”
3) Why Walmart is winning: physical assets + AI = real operational leverage
So why is Walmart suddenly the winner in this narrative?
Not because it’s an “AI company” — but because it owns what AI can’t replace:
physical assets, supply chain scale, and logistics networks.
Some market highlights being discussed:
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~60% of warehouses automated with AI
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~90% of restocking AI-driven
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Partnerships with Google & OpenAI
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Conversion rates reportedly up ~22%
4) “Software death loop”: JPMorgan views BDCs are becoming the credit risk hotspot.
This selloff becomes more dangerous when it shifts from equity panic to a broader credit stress narrative.
JPMorgan’s take is that the selloff in software — and other industries perceived to be exposed to AI disruption — has shown little sign of easing.
More importantly, JPMorgan warns the risk is increasingly migrating from stocks into credit markets, with Business Development Companies (BDCs) turning into a key pressure point.
According to JPMorgan, BDCs hold roughly: $70B in software-related loans, around 16% of their total portfolios
After the sharp software drawdown, these loan-linked assets may become mispriced or “dislocated.”
5) If the paradigm is shifting… how to position?
Discussion: what’s your take? 👇
So what’s really happening here?
Is this just a short-term panic… or a real regime shift?
Do you think this is:
A) the beginning of the end for software stocks, or
B) an overreaction that creates a buying opportunity?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins!
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$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ hitting $1 trillion makes sense because AI is amplifying businesses with physical scale and operational complexity. AI turns Walmart’s logistics and supply chain into real profit leverage, while many software companies now have to prove they’re essential, not optional.
So I lean toward B: this is an overreaction, not the end of software. But the $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ JPMorgan credit warning matters — if stress spreads into BDCs, volatility isn’t done. The opportunity is selective: only software with mission-critical roles and pricing power deserves to bounce.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
没有一个代理人工智能可以复制5000家商店的纯粹物理勇气或全球履行的复杂机制。
通过利用其在高速人工智能中心的巨大足迹&一个高利润的广告巨头，沃尔玛成功地摆脱了旧的零售皮肤，成为了一个技术驱动的巨头。
沃尔玛不再仅仅销售食品杂货。它正在销售一个自动化的超高效未来，物流是新的软件。
虽然SaaS行业可能会颤抖，但沃尔玛的万亿美元里程碑是已故伟大的创始人萨姆·沃尔顿会引以为豪的成就。从1962年的单一品种商店到今天的巨大成功，这一成就仍然植根于他最初的每天低价理念。
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @老虎船长 @TigerClub @TigerStars
With Walmart (WMT) becoming the first traditional retailer to hit a $1 trillion market cap while software stocks crash, the market stands at a crossroad, signaling a pivot where operational AI integration is now valued as highly as software innovation。。。
Investors now bet that real-world AI users offer more upside than software sellers, fearing that AI-automated coding will erode traditional SaaS pricing power and competitive moats
While this volatility may be a short-term panic, a regime shift is emerging where high interest rates and persistent inflation favor profitable titans over high-growth software
Despite the "Software Death Loop" fears, this sell-off creates a buying opportunity for foundational AI leaders like Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR), whose platforms provide the essential AI data infrastructure
摩根大通的觀點是，軟件和其他被認爲容易受到人工智能顛覆的行業的拋售——幾乎沒有緩和的跡象.
更重要的是，摩根大通警告稱，風險正越來越多地從股票轉移到信貸市場，與業務發展公司(BDC)變成一個關鍵的壓力點。
據摩根大通稱，BDC大致持有：$70B軟件相關貸款，圍繞佔其總投資組合的16%
在軟件大幅縮水後，這些與貸款相關的資產可能會被錯誤定價或“錯位”。
在围绕Anthropic的Claude的新进展（以及人工智能工具可以越来越多地取代知识工作流程的更广泛叙述）之后，投资者开始质疑：
有多少“软件价值”是真正可以辩护的？损失报告（单日）：约$2850亿市值被抹去
在围绕Anthropic的Claude的新进展（以及人工智能工具可以越来越多地取代知识工作流程的更广泛叙述）之后，投资者开始质疑：
有多少“软件价值”是真正可以辩护的？损失报告（单日）：约$2850亿市值被抹去
他的觀點很實際：人工智能更像是一個效率層，不是完全替換。你不會因爲AI存在就從頭重建Excel。但關鍵是：
只有最強的軟件類別才能作爲“必備品”生存下來。
Agree with Jensen Huang that AI is more like an efficiency layer than a full replacement. Just like we didn’t rebuild Excel from scratch when new technology appeared, AI will be added into existing tools to make them faster and easier to use. The software that will survive are the ones people already depend on every day, such as spreadsheets, design tools, and business systems, because they are deeply built into how work gets done. Weaker or nice-to-have apps may disappear, since AI can easily copy what they do. In the end, AI doesn’t replace everything, it strengthens the most important software and quietly pushes out the rest.