One Year After Trump’s Return: Would TACO Happen Again?
US stocks opened sharply lower, with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunging 1.5%. Mega-cap tech stocks weakened broadly: Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, and Meta all fell more than 2%, while Alphabet and Microsoft slid nearly 2%, and Apple declined close to 1%.
It has been one year since Donald Trump returned to the White House. On the surface, markets have delivered a solid outcome, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 16% over the past year. Yet beneath that headline number lies a roller-coaster market defined by sharp drawdowns followed by repeated record highs.
Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. will impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting Feb 1, with the threat of raising them to 25% by June 1 if a “Greenland deal” is not reached. Markets reacted immediately: gold and silver hit fresh weekly highs, U.S. 10-year yields moved higher, and equities sold off, with major tech stocks under pressure.
Looking back, April’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs initially shook markets, but investors quickly reverted to a “buy-the-dip” mindset.
As Trump 2.0 moves into a midterm election year, history becomes less comforting.
Since 1948, the second year of a presidential term has delivered the weakest average S&P 500 performance. Combined with geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, investors are facing a far more complex landscape.
Repeated tariff threats, the prospect of more aggressive rate cuts under a new Fed chair, and the potential for fiscal stimulus form a powerful but risky mix. For markets, this suggests ongoing volatility in the short term, liquidity support over the full year, and rising importance of hedges such as gold as inflation risks are deferred rather than resolved.
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In a Trump midterm election year, would you add risk assets, increase hedges like gold, or stick to buy-the-dip trading?
Would TACO happen this week?
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TACO man has just fired another round of tariff theatrics -10% to 8 European nations increasing to 25% if the Greenland deal does not happen.
Stocks took an express elevator down. Gold & Silver sprinted to new highs. US 10 year yields climbed.
With US midterm elections in 2026, do you add risk, boost hedges or buy the dips?
There is no right answer, only strategy that matches your temperament.
I may do all 3. Buy IAU Gold ETF, continue to dance with risk assets like USAR and then dip buying into SPYM ETF, treating every selloff like a TACO Special.
TACO man is at it again serving another year of spicy unpredictability.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
In a Trump midterm election year, I’m not rushing to add risk. I’m staying selective with quality exposure while leaning more on hedges like gold $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ —not because I’m bearish, but because inflation risks are being delayed and policy swings are intensifying. Capital preservation matters more to me when policy direction is this unstable.
As for TACO, I still see a high short-term probability. Tough rhetoric often fades once markets react, but even if it happens this week, volatility remains. I’m watching rates and liquidity closely for confirmation.
@Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars
The "TACO" trade, which involves buying stocks after a tariff announcement pushes them lower on the assumption President Trump will back down, may happen this week.
Given the historical pattern and current market reactions, another "TACO" moment—a brief dip followed by a quick recovery—is highly anticipated this week.
Trump is building great America using old strategies
However time change and the world become more cooperative as a whole
Trump want to take over the N America
and yes Canada is his target too[Facepalm]
God bless Canada and the rest of the world
Do you feel like what happen years ago that Russia invades Ukraine[Glance]
But using modern weapons, ie finance tools
Keep holding my SLV and shop with dip[Great]
黄金的作用不是赚快钱，而是降低组合波动，或者对冲极端风险黑天鹅、流动性危机，在风险资产下跌时“稳住心态和现金流”。