The Biggest “Quadruple Witching” Coming! Can S&P 500 Hold 6,800?
This Friday, Wall Street faces a record-breaking options expiry—a total of $7.1 trillion! About $5 trillion tied to $S&P 500(.SPX)$; About $880 billion tied to individual stocks
According to Goldman Sachs, roughly $5 trillion of this exposure is tied to S&P 500, while another $880 billion is linked to individual stocks. The extraordinary concentration of these expiring contracts could amplify market volatility heading into year-end, with traders closely monitoring whether S&P 500 can hold the 6,800 level, a key battleground for bulls and bears.
This December’s event surpasses all prior records, with zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options on the S&P 500 alone accounting for more than 62% of total option activity, highlighting the complexity and potential volatility of the session.
Massive expirations could amplify swings. But a “pinning effect” may also stabilize prices toward key strike levels at close.
Although the market rebound tonight, it’s far away from Santa rally.
Can S&P 500 close above 6800?
Do you expect the “pinning effect” or market swings to dominate?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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我预计“钉住效应”将推动价格走向关键罢工，但由于到期日如此之大，波动性几乎是肯定的。随着交易者调整头寸，可能会出现突然波动，但随着做市商管理风险，可能会在6800点左右企稳。
尽管市场已经反弹，但我对圣诞老人反弹仍持谨慎态度。即使SPX保持在6,800点以上，到期的巨大规模也可能造成波动的情况。这是一个密切观察水平，保持纪律，并为挥杆和牵制做好准备的日子。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Can S&P 500 close above 6800?
Do you expect the “pinning effect” or market swings to dominate?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Massive expirations could amplify swings. But a “pinning effect” may also stabilize prices toward key strike levels at close.
1. It was fully priced in. Investors had already baked the quarter point hike into their plans with overnight swap market showing a near 100% probability of the move before it happened.
2. Governor Ueda's lack of guidance into future rate hikes actually caused the yen to weaken further, dropping 1.3% to 157.53 yen per dollar.
3. Real interest rates in Japan remain negative (at around -2.2%). This means that BoJ is still supporting growth even as it "normalises".
So it turns out that BoJ 's historic interest rate hike was about as scary as a kitten dressed for Halloween. The market, which was expected to shudder at the move away from decades of negative rates, merely stifled a yawn & continued its rally.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Wall Street faced a record-breaking $7.1 trillion options expiry, with $5 trillion tied to the S&P 500 and $880 billion to individual stocks, making it a massive deadline day where trillions in trading contracts expire at the same time, causing the busiest trading day of the year
The index successfully stayed above the 6,800 level, proving that buyers were strong enough to keep the market from falling
The “pinning effect” kept the index around 6,800 as traders focused on that price due to options expiring, but big market swings dominated the final hour as traders adjusted massive year-end positions
With the S&P 500 holding 6,800, the market looks healthier heading into the holidays, likely setting the stage for the start of the "Santa Claus Rally"。。。
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@Snowwhite
While traders braced for market chaos, the S&P 500 laughed in the face of the "pinning effect" and went full steam into a gamma fueled rally.
The market completely shrugged off the BoJ's predictable move and the massive options overhang to close at 6,834.50, a robust gain of 0.88% for the day.
The rally was fundamentally supported by a comeback in the AI trade. $Micron Technology(MU)$ earlier blowout earnings and news that TikTok would sell its US operations to a venture including $Oracle(ORCL)$ Silver Lake and MGX, helped to fuel the rally.
It is Ho Ho Ho All the Way to Christmas and the New Year.🎅🎅🎅🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰🎁🎁🎁
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @Tiger_SG
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
I don't know well enough to make a confident call, but I assume there won't be anything too significant. Will keep an eye out to see what happens though.
为什么6,800很重要
这是一个关键的心理和选择沉重的打击。
如果没有新的催化剂或强大的大型股领导力，进入该区域的反弹往往会满足供应。
牵制与挥杆
基本情况：牵制占主导地位。大量的近期期权敞口通常会将价格拉向收盘时的行使价，从而产生窄幅波动和尾盘均值回归。
替代方案：只有当波动性扩大时，例如通过收益率大幅变动或大盘股驱动的流量，波动才会占主导地位。即便如此，如果没有成交量跟进，上行突破也可能是短暂的。
预期
日内探针6800以上是可能的。
持续收于6800上方需要明显的成交量扩张。
目前，风险回报更倾向于耐心而不是追逐突破。
底线：今天的压制压力略高于方向性信念，使得边际突破或失败突破的可能性比决定性收于6,800点上方的可能性更大。
大規模到期可能會放大波動。但“釘住效應”也可能使價格穩定在收盤時的關鍵執行水平。
雖然今晚市場反彈，但距離聖誕老人反彈還很遠。