To The Moon

There is certainly scope for a rebound — but whether last week was the bottom remains uncertain.

Two points to note:

1) Macro narrative has improved A credible path to ending the shutdown removes one immediate tail-risk discount in risk assets. Markets hate operational government uncertainty because it affects data releases, fiscal flows, and confidence. Any constructive motion towards a funding bridge is naturally supportive for equities.

2) But positioning is not washed-out enough to call a durable floor Volatility metrics, CTA deleveraging levels, and mutual fund cash ratios are not signalling true capitulation. We saw a reflex bounce — triggered by headlines — not yet the type of structural re-risking you usually see when funds lock in a multi-week trend reversal.

So — renown rebound? Possible. Bottom in? Not confirmed.

Base case: we are nearing a tradable bottoming zone, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Short-term rallies may continue as long as:

shutdown risk stays contained

Fedspeak remains dovish-leaning

earnings guidance does not materially deteriorate

But a single political deal does not change broader concerns:

margins peaking

valuations still expensive vs long-run

liquidity still fragile

If you want a rule-of-thumb:

> If VIX breaks below ~15 again and holds, the market believes the bottom.

If VIX stays >17–20, then this bounce is just tactical.

Watch liquidity — not the headlines — for confirmation.