To The Moon

A broad-based early drawdown in the first sessions of a new month is not unusual.

Historically, month-turn tends to coincide with portfolio rebalancing, CTA de-risking triggers, and fund flow adjustments after month-end marks. When those three line up against overstretched positioning, the tape can flip very quickly — even if the macro data did not change materially overnight.

Short pause or trend reversal?

At present, structural factors remain supportive:

corporate buyback authorisations are still heavy in Q4,

earnings beats (ex-mega-caps) have been resilient,

recession probability pricing has been drifting lower again.

However, the tactical picture is more fragile:

liquidity impulse has rolled over for 4–6 weeks,

Treasury issuance remains heavy,

positioning in AI-beta has been crowded.

This combination is exactly the type of setup where shallow pullbacks can become two- or three-week consolidations.

Regarding Burry’s positioning

Burry’s track record attracts headlines — but he tends to be early rather than wrong.

Shorting NVDA + PLTR is essentially a statement about valuation duration and positioning saturation, not a call on fundamentals collapsing tomorrow.

For this to become a “Big Short 2.0”, you need two confirming conditions:

1. sharp tightening in wholesale liquidity (not just Fed stance — ON RRP, TGA rebuild, bill issuance composition), and

2. earnings revision cycle flipping negative.

We do not have both yet.

Conclusion

Current pullback = more likely a sentiment flush / VaR shock reset, not yet a full regime reversal.

But if liquidity deteriorates further and forward earnings revisions weaken into next quarter, then Burry’s trade would shift from contrarian to consensus — and that is when the real downside tail opens.

For now: respect the tape, but do not extrapolate one pre-market session into a new secular trend.