To The Moon

You’ve raised some very pertinent questions about NVIDIA Corporation (“NVIDIA”) and its upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 (GTC) keynote by Jensen Huang. Below is a structured analysis of the probability that NVIDIA will announce new partnerships and whether the event might propel the stock to new highs — or conversely lead to a “sell the news” reaction.

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1. Will NVIDIA announce new partnerships at GTC?

Evidence in favour

Historically, GTC keynotes by Jensen Huang have included both major product announcements (e.g., new GPU architectures, AI model platforms) and high-profile partner collaborations. For example, at a previous GTC Huang announced a dedicated quantum research lab in Boston in partnership with academia/industry. 

Analysts expect that NVIDIA will emphasise its AI ecosystem, infrastructure and robotics/physical-AI efforts at this upcoming GTC. That kind of ecosystem build often comes with partnerships (for hardware, software, cloud, enterprise) to support scaling.

The event focus you mentioned (AI inference, quantum computing, robotics) all lend themselves to partnerships: e.g., cloud providers, auto/robotics companies, research institutions.

Evidence against / caveats

Some recent commentary suggests that while the company repeatedly outlines its roadmap, market reaction has been muted when announcements were largely expected or incremental. For example: Analysts said the prior keynote largely reiterated existing roadmap items rather than shocking new surprises. 

A partnership announcement alone may not move the needle unless it is large-scale or has immediate commercialisation potential.

My view

Yes — I find it likely that NVIDIA will announce at least one new partnership, especially in areas of physical or “agentic” AI (robotics, cloud‐AI infrastructure, perhaps quantum link-ups). However, whether that partnership will be transformational (i.e., strong enough to move the stock sharply) is less certain.

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2. Will NVIDIA hit new highs at/around GTC — or is this a “sell the news” risk?

Factors pointing toward new highs

NVIDIA is a leading beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom; investor sentiment is highly favourable. If the keynote delivers a meaningful surprise or strong forward guidance, the stock could surge.

Pre-event “run-up” (you noted futures rising overnight) often precedes events like this — indicating some bullish expectation baked into the price.

If NVIDIA announces something that materially expands its TAM (total addressable market) or accelerates revenue growth (e.g., new enterprise AI business, major cloud/auto/robotics deal), that could validate the hype and drive fresh highs.

Factors pointing toward “sell the news” or muted upside

When expectations are already high, the risk rises that even a good announcement might disappoint relative to hype. If the keynote is incremental rather than surprising, the stock could stagnate or even pull back as short-term traders sell into strength.

As noted, past GTC events have sometimes produced modest market reactions when the announcements were mostly within expected roadmaps. 

The stock may have already “priced in” much of the favourable AI/infra narrative. Thus the incremental announcement may trigger profit-taking rather than further breakout.

My probability estimate

Probability that NVIDIA sets a new all-time high in the near term (around the event): ~ 40-50%.

Probability that it is more of a “sell the news” event or at least a muted reaction: ~ 50-60%.

In other words, I lean slightly toward caution: the upside is real, but so is the risk that the event doesn’t deliver enough to exceed already elevated expectations.

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3. Specific considerations you asked about

New partnerships: Yes, likely—but the magnitude matters.

Setting new highs: Possible, but not the most probable outcome given the risk/reward.

What to watch:

1. Unexpected announcements: e.g., big cloud deal, major auto/robotics partner, large quantum computing pact.

2. Commercialisation timeline: If something is revealed but the go-to-market is 2027 or later, the market may shrug.

3. Guidance or revenue implications: Any forward‐looking statements (e.g., “AI infrastructure revenue will be $X by year Y”) will carry weight.

4. Valuation vs growth: If the company already trades at high multiples (which it does), the market will demand growth proof—not just promise.

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4. My conclusion & advice for you

Given your interest in major tech players and the AI narrative:

If you are bullish and willing to accept risk, entering or holding NVIDIA ahead of the event could be rewarded — especially if you believe that NVIDIA will deliver something beyond expectations.

If you are more conservative (which might align with your preference for “slow and stable progress”), you might consider waiting to see the reaction post-keynote, then evaluating whether there is a sustainable new high breakout or simply a short-term pop followed by consolidation.

For your role (curriculum design etc.), if you follow AI/tech trends, you may want to monitor the ecosystem implications (e.g., NVIDIA partnerships might stimulate new educational/training needs in AI/robotics) rather than the stock alone.