To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$  Below is a detailed look at Intel’s situation after the Intel-NVIDIA deal, and my view on the questions you posed: whether $30 is still a buy, how the NVIDIA investment might affect Intel long term, whether $40 is a realistic target, and how much upside remains given the ~$116B market cap. Of course, nothing here is financial advice, just analysis you can use.

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What we know & context

From recent reporting:

NVIDIA is investing US$5B in Intel common stock, at US$23.28/share, giving NVIDIA about a 4% stake in Intel. 

Under their partnership, Intel will build custom x86 CPUs for NVIDIA’s data centre AI infrastructure; and also “x86 SoCs integrated with NVIDIA RTX GPUs” for PCs. 

The deal is seen as helping Intel with production volume, justifying some of its future foundry / next‐generation manufacturing investments (e.g. the 14A node) by having committed product partners/customers. 

Intel has been struggling financially: losses in recent periods, high capex for fabs, needing scale and customer commitment. 

With that in mind, let’s address your questions.

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1. Is Intel still a buy at $30?

Pros:

The NVIDIA deal is a strong catalyst. It brings in capital (though at a lower price than current market), but more importantly commits NVIDIA to Intel’s ecosystem. That gives Intel certainty of demand for some of its upcoming gas-guzzler investments (fabs, new nodes).

Intel may get synergies from integrating with NVIDIA’s platform (both in R&D, possibly in packaging, yields if volumes are high).

The market tends to reward such strategic partnerships well, especially when they help address past weaknesses (fabrication capacity, foundry credibility, scale).

Risks / cons:

Valuation is already elevated. The P/E ratio is quite high, especially forward P/E. Per ChartMill, Intel’s P/E was ~55.8, forward ~44.6. That suggests expectations are baked in. 

Execution risk is large. New fabs, new nodes (14A, etc.) are expensive, technologically challenging; delays or lower yields would hurt returns.

Intel’s foundry business has been slow to get external customers, so even with NVIDIA, there is still risk of under‐utilization.

Competition from AMD, TSMC, and others is fierce; NVIDIA itself might still use TSMC or others for certain products. The deal doesn’t necessarily remove competitive threats or guarantee Intel dominates in this space. 

Macro risks: chip cycles, supply chain, geopolitical risk, regulation.

Conclusion for “buy at $30”:

It depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance. If you're long term (3-5+ years) and believe Intel can execute, $30 may be attractive (especially if you believe the partnership will unlock durable margins and scale). But if you’re short term or require lower risk, the reward vs downside seems more balanced.

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2. How will the NVIDIA investment affect Intel in the long term?

Some of the longer‐term effects could be:

Revenue/volume boost from guaranteed projects: Having NVIDIA as a partner/customer gives Intel more predictable backlog and perhaps helps fill new fabs. The joint SoCs and custom CPUs for data centres could provide solid recurring revenue streams if they succeed.

Validation / confidence from investors, other customers: A big name like NVIDIA investing signals zero confidence in Intel’s strategy. That could help Intel attract more customers or partners, or raise capital on better terms.

Manufacturing scale leverage: If product volume from the partnership (and maybe others) is sufficient, Intel can better amortize its fab / R&D costs. This helps the economics of cutting‐edge nodes like 14A.

Technology integration & innovation: Joint engineering on integrating CPU + GPU, perhaps packaging, using proprietary interconnects (like NVLink) could give Intel advantages. 

Competitive pressure on rivals: This moves Intel closer to competing better with AMD (in x86 CPUs/servers) and with other chipmakers in AI infrastructure.

Risks remain: If Intel fails to deliver yields, or delays occur, or NVIDIA doesn’t commit fully to using Intel fabs or foundry services, then upside is curtailed.

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3. Is $40 the next target price realistic?

Let’s think about that.

To go from ~$30 to $40, that’s ~33-35% upside from current levels. Whether that’s achievable depends on:

Execution of the Intel/NVIDIA technologies and fabs.

Margin expansion (i.e. how profitable those custom chips / SoCs are, vs cost of production).

Market sentiment remaining favorable (AI, chip demand, supply constraints, etc.).

Positive financials: earnings growth, stable cash flow, manageable capex, debt.

If Intel can show meaningful incremental revenue & profit from this partnership, plus some wins in foundry / external customers, it’s plausible. Some analysts might believe higher targets, though many probably still cautious.

I would say $40 is a stretch target, reasonable in a bullish scenario (strong execution + tailwinds). But it’s not an easy base case within 12-18 months unless many pieces fall into place (fab yields, cost control, demand staying strong).

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4. With ~$116.2B market cap, how many upside is left?

To estimate “upside,” you have to consider:

What valuation multiple is reasonable given Intel’s prospects (forward P/E, etc.).

What revenue / earnings growth is possible.

The cost / risk of its large capital investments (fabs, node R&D).

Some rough back‐of‐envelope:

If the market cap is ~$116B, a rise to a $40 share price corresponds to what market cap? Suppose current shares outstanding are constant; that implies ~33-35% higher market cap (assuming no dilution). So ~US$155-160B market cap. That’s an extra ~$40B or so.

Is that magnitude justified? If Intel can grow revenues by, say, 20-30% CAGR over a couple years from this deal + other AI tailwinds, improve margins, and show credible path to positive free cash flow (after heavy capex), then yes, that upside is possible.

On the other hand, if growth disappoints or cost overruns happen, downside is also nontrivial.

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Overall view & price target estimate

Putting it together, my (non-professional) verdicts:

Base case: Intel is conditionally a buy around $30, if you believe in the long-term AI infrastructure demand and that Intel can execute. Probably look for confirmation in the next earnings reports, orders from partners, progress in yields, fab output.

Target price: A realistic medium-term target might be US$35-$40, though $40 is more likely in a bullish scenario.

Upside: If Intel can deliver, maybe 30-50% upside from current levels (i.e. up to ~$40-$45), depending on how much more investor enthusiasm comes in, how margins improve, and how risk is perceived.