To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$  

What we know / strategic implications

Nvidia is investing $5B into Intel common stock at $23.28/share, acquiring ~4% after issuance of new shares. 

The deal involves Intel producing custom x86 CPUs for Nvidia’s data center AI infrastructure; and jointly developing “x86 RTX SoCs” (i.e. integrated CPU + GPU) for PCs. 

Foundry (contract chip manufacturing for others) is not included in Nvidia shifting wafer production to Intel under this deal; Nvidia will continue using its existing fabs (e.g., TSMC). 

Intel has been under pressure: operating losses historically; negative EPS; undergoing cost control efforts; needing to prove that its manufacturing process and delivery can compete. 

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My answers to your questions

1. Is Intel still a buy at $30?

It could be, but it depends heavily on your risk tolerance and time horizon. The collaboration with Nvidia is genuinely positive: it adds credibility, capital, and opens up new product vectors (custom datacenter CPUs; integrated CPU‐GPU SoCs). That said:

The stock is being priced, in part, on expectation, not current earnings: Intel has still been losing money, and with a negative trailing P/E. 

Execution risk is large: product delivery, manufacturing process maturity, competition (AMD, TSMC, etc.), geopolitical/regulatory risks in chip supply chain.

So if you believe Intel can pull through, reinvigorate its process tech, deliver these Nvidia‐joint products well, $30 might offer upside. But if things falter, downside risk remains.

2. How will the Nvidia investment affect Intel in the long term?

Some potential long‐term impacts:

Stronger balance sheet / capital base: The $5B helps liquidity and gives investor confidence. 

Technology and product roadmap validation: Nvidia's involvement acts as a vote of confidence. If Intel can execute on custom x86 CPUs and integrated SoCs, that could open up markets (AI infrastructure, PC/hybrid devices).

Ecosystem leverage: Combining Intel’s CPU / x86 strengths + Nvidia’s GPU / AI software stack may enable differentiated offerings. It may help Intel better compete with AMD/ARM/others.

Margin pressure / cost burden: Developing these products, integrating complex GPUs / CPUs, ensuring yields, maintaining R&D etc. will cost. Also, Intel’s process node lag vs TSMC/others remains a concern.

Competitive dynamics change: For example, AMD and ARM‐based servers might face new pressure; foundry customers may revisit Intel; supply chain / policy tailwinds (e.g. U.S. government support) may strengthen Intel’s position.

3. Is the next target price $40 realistic?

$40 is not unreasonable, but achieving it depends on several things lining up well:

Strong execution of the Intel‐Nvidia joint product designs, with timely launch and good performance.

Improvement in Intel’s manufacturing process / yield / cost structure.

Sustained demand in AI / data center / PCs, especially for integrated CPU/GPU systems.

Positive macro environment (semiconductor demand, favorable regulation, trade policy).

Analysts have mixed views: some optimistic, some cautious. One quoted target came near $43 in at least one report. 

If Intel can deliver better earnings, reduce losses, and show that the partnership yields products that compete in performance/pricing, a move to $40+ could happen in 12-24 months. But getting there is nontrivial.

4. With only ≈US$116-143B market cap, how much upside is left?

(“Only” is relative, but yes, compared to Nvidia etc., Intel is smaller today.)

Upside depends on multiples:

As Intel returns to profitability, P/E multiple could expand significantly. If earnings improve, markets might re‐assign a forward P/E similar to other growth / semi companies.

Also, the strategic momentum (Nvidia partnership, govt/SoftBank investments) may lead to re‐rating.

Roughly, if Intel achieves stable positive earnings and the market gives it a forward P/E in the 20-30× range (or better), upside from $30 could be +30-100%, depending on how good “earnings growth” turns out to be.

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Risks / what to watch

Whether Intel can close its gap in process technology vs TSMC and others.

Product execution: performance, yield, cost, time to market.

Competitive retaliation: AMD, ARM vendors, maybe others scaling up AI CPU/GPU.

Regulatory / trade risks (export restrictions, fabrication subsidies, etc.).

Dilution risk: new shares issued (for example to Nvidia) may dampen per-share gains unless offset by strong growth.

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My view: Buy / Hold / Avoid?

If I were you, and assuming you are investing with a multi-year horizon (3–5+ years), I lean toward Hold or Light Buy. If price dips below $30 and fundamentals show signs of stabilization, that would be a more attractive entry. If you already own, probably don’t rush to sell; but don’t assume this is risk free.