To The Moon

My Investing Muse (08Sep25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Civilization 7 developer Firaxis has laid off an undisclosed number of employees as part of its plans to optimise the development process. - PocketGamer Biz

• This time, more than 100 people in Oracle’s Seattle operations have been let go, alongside colleagues in the Philippines, in the Advanced Customer Services and NetSuite groups, per Data Center Dynamics. - Channel Futures

• Almost 200 Seattle-area tech workers were laid off this week in waves of workforce reductions from business-software maker Salesforce and cloud computing giant Oracle. - Seattle Times

A table titled "JOBS REPORT" with columns for MONTH, INITIAL READING, FIRST REVISION, SECOND REVISION, and DIFFERENCE FROM ORIGINAL READING. Rows list data for February 2025 to August 2025, including job figures for each month. June 2025 is highlighted in red, showing an initial reading of 147,000 jobs, a first revision of 14,000, a second revision of -13,000, and a difference of -160,000.

If you take a look at NET revisions just for 2025, the US has seen -482,000 jobs revised out of the initially reported data. This is roughly equivalent to the entire population of Atlanta, GA. All revised out of just 2025's data year-to-date. - The Kobeissi Letter

A line graph displaying the US underemployment rate from 2023 to 2025. The graph shows a fluctuating blue shaded area with a red dashed trend line indicating an upward trajectory. A red arrow points to a peak labeled 8.1% in early 2025. Text overlays include "US UNDEREMPLOYMENT RATE SURGES TO 8.1%" and data labels like "U-6: U-6 Unemployed & Part Time for Econ Reasons & Marginally Attached, SA, Last Price: 8.1." A Bloomberg Finance watermark is present at the bottom.

The underemployment rate in the US just jumped to 8.1%, marking the highest level since 2021. Why is this important? Underemployment counts involuntary part-time workers and those not currently looking for work, but want a job. Millions of Americans have either given up on their job search or can only work part-time. This will soon be 10%+.

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After a SECOND data revision, the US went from "adding" 147,000 jobs in June 2025, to LOSING -13,000 jobs. Cumulative payrolls have now officially been revised down by -1.1 MILLION jobs since February 2022. - The Kobeissi Letter

The US now has more unemployed people than job openings. - Globe Eye News

These are some of the layoffs & closures which were announced in the past week. It does seem the unemployment and layoffs continue to trend in a worrisome direction.

What is complicating the job numbers is the constant revision. I would think that people preferred delayed data over revisions. This is not a good reflection of the authenticity.

AI adoption

AI has brought a decline in jobs. How many other jobs were created by AI?

Will OpenAI survive the coming crisis? Can they break even in 2 years?

“Before 2030 you're going to see Amazon, which has massively invested in [AI], replace all factory workers and all drivers … It will be 100% robotic, which means all of those workers are going away. Every Amazon worker. UPS, gone. FedEx, gone," per Jason Calacanis

Will there be more job losses coming up?

Falling supply chain volume

International container booking volumes are down 17% YoY as prestocking cools and the trade war continues - X user Craig Fuller

Trucking volumes headed into Labor Day are down 12% YoY. We did see a small uptick in the second half of August, but it is still abysmal for truckers. - X user Craig Fuller

Will the supply chain industry see more challenges in the days ahead? Let us monitor the import and export volume as these give good references for our economy.

My final thoughts

The US economy is going towards recession at the end of this year, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, warned in a recent interview. He said the tariffs have hit the purchasing power the hardest, and the US will see more job losses at the end of the year into next.

Mark Zandi has warned that the US economy is heading towards recession. This is a possible outcome. Let us make provision for this.

The McDonalds CEO just gave a reality check for the US economy - and it's ugly for most Americans: "With middle and lower income consumers, they're under a lot of pressure. If you're upper income earning over $100k, things are good. Stock markets are near all time highs. You're feeling, quite confident about things. You're seeing international travel, all those barometers of upper income consumers are doing quite well. What we see with middle and lower income consumers is actually a different story. It's that consumer is under a lot of pressure in our industry. Traffic for lower income consumers is down double digits, and it's because people are either choosing to skip a meal. So we're seeing breakfast, people are actually skipping breakfast, or they're choosing to just eat at home." - CNBC

McDonald’s has shared the drop in footfall for lower-income consumers. Is this the state of the economy for the lower-income bracket? Will this show up in the S&P 500 index? Probably not.

The BLS collects ~90K price quotes each month across 200 categories to calculate CPI. Normally, ~10% of prices are estimated when data is missing. Now ~32% are MADE UP, based on assumptions, not real prices, double the % seen in 2020. - Global Markets Investor

With regular revision of government data, sentiments may take over data’s influence. The government needs to address this, as this can lead to concerns of distrust. This can also affect international investors. Currently, the USA remains one of the most “in-demand” investing markets. The macro overview and falling USD are concerns that are driving some outflow.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

This week, we will focus on reviewing our financial position by analysing our expenditures, income, and savings. Our core principles will be to operate within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage.

I am also conducting a review of our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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