To The Moon

For Jackson Hole, the key points for traders and investors usually revolve around Fed signalling and market psychology rather than the event itself. Based on the pattern you outlined:

1. Focus Points for Jackson Hole 2025

Powell’s tone: Hawkish, dovish, or neutral.

Hawkish → market interprets it as higher rates for longer → S&P dips.

Dovish → market may hope for rate cuts → temporary relief or rally.

Forward guidance: Any hints about September rate cuts or the pace of policy easing.

Inflation commentary: Markets react strongly if Powell signals inflation is still sticky.

Market expectations vs. reality: Even if he’s dovish, traders often take profit after pre-event positioning, which explains the “dip even on dovish tone” you noted in 2024.

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2. Classic Dip-Rally Pattern

Historically, Jackson Hole is volatile intra-day, with dips often bought aggressively.

Many traders treat the initial reaction as overextended, leading to a rebound once the market digests the details.

The pattern you observed (dip → rally) reflects short-term positioning and headline overreaction, rather than fundamental shifts.

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3. Opportunities Tonight

Short-term traders could watch for a pullback on initial volatility as a potential entry point if Powell’s speech is interpreted as dovish or neutral.

Longer-term investors should be cautious: the speech usually affects intra-day and short-term positioning more than the medium-term trend, unless new policy guidance is truly surprising.

Keep an eye on bond yields and the USD, as these often move first and drive equity reactions.

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In short: expect volatility, watch the tone and specific language, and consider dip-rally mechanics as an opportunity for tactical moves, but don’t over-interpret the initial reaction as a full trend signal.