To The Moon

Just a few months ago, $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ was a mid-cap fintech story fighting for relevance. Fast forward to today, and we’re looking at a company whose stock has more than tripled over the past year, touching a fresh 52-week high of $20.89. SoFi’s latest move—a strategic expansion back into the cryptocurrency universe—has added new excitement, with bullish investors now eyeing $25 as the next milestone. The question is: does this rally still have legs, or are we entering speculative airspace?

Speculation or strategy? The line gets blurry above $20

I’m cautiously optimistic. SoFi’s financials suggest a company that’s no longer just surviving—it’s evolving. But while the crypto headlines sound flashy, I believe they’re more sizzle than substance, at least for now. My bullishness is grounded in hard fundamentals, not digital tokens.

Revenue Momentum That Actually Matters

Let’s start with the engine room. SoFi’s revenue over the trailing twelve months hit $2.77 billion, up more than 20% year-on-year. The company has turned a corner on profitability too, posting net income of $472 million with a solid 17.4% profit margin. That’s not something you can easily ignore in a fintech landscape where many peers are still in the red. If current momentum continues, annualised revenue could push past $2.5 billion by the end of 2025, even before any meaningful contribution from its renewed crypto efforts.

What gives me confidence isn’t just the topline growth—it’s the expanding reach of SoFi’s platform. The company is building a full-stack financial ecosystem, with lending, investing, banking, and tech platform services under one digital roof. The cross-sell potential here is enormous. If SoFi can convert even a fraction of its 8.1 million members into multi-product users, its operating leverage will kick in, and margins could surprise to the upside.

That said, SoFi’s current valuation does bake in a lot of optimism. At 46x trailing earnings and a frothy forward P/E over 67, this is hardly a bargain bin fintech. But growth stocks aren’t meant to be cheap; they’re meant to execute. So far, SoFi is delivering.

Crypto’s Back—but With a Smaller Wallet

Now to the headline-grabber: crypto. SoFi’s decision to ramp up its blockchain capabilities and re-engage with the cryptocurrency sector might appear bold, but it’s more about optics than earnings—for now. The move aligns well with SoFi’s brand identity, especially among Gen Z and millennial investors, many of whom view crypto not just as an asset class but as a cultural signal.

From a strategic perspective, this isn’t a moonshot—it’s a retention and engagement tool. Offering blockchain-based services helps SoFi stay relevant in an increasingly tokenised financial world. It also provides a valuable data stream for understanding risk appetite and investing trends among its younger users. But let’s not pretend this will shift the income statement in the next quarter. At best, it adds incremental user growth; at worst, it stirs up volatility and regulatory risk. In short, it’s a clever add-on, not a core driver.

There’s also a risk of overreach. Crypto is still a reputational minefield. One misstep—say, a failed token launch or regulatory misalignment—could damage the brand SoFi has spent years rebuilding. So, while the company deserves credit for being bold, I’m not betting on Bitcoin to take this stock to $25.

The technicals suggest the hype may not be so irrational after all.

SoFi's breakout breaches upper band—momentum, or overheat warning?

Competition Is Quietly Watching—and Moving

While SoFi’s recent share price surge is impressive, it doesn’t mean competitors are standing still. Block (formerly Square), $Robinhood(HOOD)$, and even traditional banks like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ are moving into overlapping territory with varying degrees of aggression. Robinhood’s comeback in crypto is well underway, and it’s investing heavily in user experience and international growth. Meanwhile, $Block, Inc.(XYZ)$ continues to expand its Cash App ecosystem, combining peer-to-peer payments, investing, and merchant services into one fluid interface.

What SoFi has, however, is a rare regulatory advantage. As a fully chartered bank, it can operate with a cost-of-capital edge and offer services competitors can’t without partnerships. That’s a moat worth noting. But it will have to continually innovate to stay ahead. Any stalling in user growth or monetisation will quickly be punished by the market, especially with institutional ownership sitting below 50% and a relatively high short interest near 14%.

Zooming out, SoFi’s performance has left peers choking on dust.

Outpacing Robinhood, Block and JPMorgan—SoFi’s rally is no fluke

The Road to $25: More Grind Than Glory

So, can SoFi hit $25? Absolutely—but not purely on crypto hype. I believe the real drivers will be continued margin expansion, disciplined cross-selling, and a sharp focus on unit economics. The stock’s YTD gain of 31.3% and a staggering 216.9% one-year return set a high bar for future performance. To justify further upside, SoFi needs to beat—not just meet—expectations over the next two quarters, particularly as earnings growth has decelerated, down 19% year-on-year.

One underappreciated insight: the company’s book value per share is now $6.05, and with a price-to-book ratio of 3.3, investors are paying a premium for future profitability. But if SoFi can boost return on equity—currently just 7.5%—closer to double digits, that premium will start to look more like a bargain.

The valuation metrics may look expensive today, but if SoFi hits even a modest earnings beat in July and shows signs of operational efficiency, $25 becomes a logical next stop rather than a stretch goal.

Behind every crypto play lies a more serious bet

Cautious Bull with a Buy Button Ready

I’m not buying $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ for its crypto ambition—I’m buying it for its financial discipline, digital moat, and long-term platform potential. The crypto angle might add some sizzle to the share price, but it’s the baked-in fundamentals that’ll drive this thing home.

At $20.22, with the next earnings report just weeks away, I’m holding firm. $25 is within reach, but not inevitable. For those with a strong stomach and a longer time frame, SoFi remains a compelling, albeit volatile, fintech play.

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