Feels Familiar? Which Stock Could Rival Circle?
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ continues its wild rally, now up 700% YTD! Coreweave has also surged 358% this year.
This kind of relentless, no-pullback price action, doesn’t it feel familiar?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Strategy(MSTR)$: haven’t they all had their moment like this? Every year, new "stock gods" emerge and old ones fade.
But this year, Circle looks even crazier. Unlike Tesla and Nvidia with their massive market caps, Circle blends meme-stock energy with actual fundamentals a rare combo.
Circle’s public float is only 18%. Stocks with such a low float are easier to manipulate and more prone to sharp rallies. Currently, Circle has 36.34 million shares in float, just 17.94% of its 202.55 million total shares outstanding. According to Circle’s IPO filing, the vast majority of restricted shares are under a 180-day lock-up.
This is why Tesla or Nvidia could never move like this. Their market caps are too massive; even tens of millions in buying pressure wouldn’t move the needle.
So… Circle or Coreweave — which one will be the 10-bagger of 2025?
Does Circle’s insane rally signal a market running out of new narratives to hype?
Compared to the past two years of AI mania, how long can the “stablecoin story” really carry the market?
Time to go short?
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但今年，Circle看起來更加瘋狂。與市值巨大的特斯拉和英偉達不同，Circle將模因股票能量與實際基本面融爲一體，這是一種罕見的組合。
Circle这波涨幅，说实话，确实疯狂。一天暴涨超500%，就连“稳定币”这个原本稳得发慌的概念也开始不稳定了（笑）。这背后不是基本面多强，而是市场实在太渴望“新故事”——过去两年AI炒到天花板，从英伟达到OpenAI，再到现在连AI数据中心也开始内卷，投资人已经有点审美疲劳。
所以Circle的出现，就像一个“平替版AI”——稳定币、金融科技、合规、甚至贴上CBDC边缘概念，市场直接用AI那套估值模型来套，这种暴力拉升其实更像是一种“叙事饥渴”的释放。一句话说穿：不是Circle太牛，而是市场没梗了。
但问题也出在这。稳定币本质上不是一个爆发型增长行业。它确实重要，是区块链世界的基础设施，但它不像AI算力那样能直接吃到指数级需求增长。Circle要实现爆炸式盈利，要么是监管层面彻底开绿灯（比如USDC被官方承认为法定稳定币），要么是链上支付、跨境结算出现质变。但这两个变量，不是一两季能兑现的。
反观CoreWeave，这家公司虽然估值也贵得离谱，但它踩中了AI基础设施这条确定性更强的赛道。无论是推理、训练，还是SaaS巨头“自建算力”的趋势，都需要CoreWeave这样的弹性云资源服务商。它不需要创造新需求，只要跟着AI浪潮往上走就能吃肉。
当然，CoreWeave目前还未IPO，想重仓也没渠道；而Circle已成为散户资金的情绪出口。所以短期内，Circle可能会继续炒作，但能不能变十倍，就看叙事能撑多久了。
总结我的看法：Circle这波是“故事先行”，热度可能来得快也去得快；CoreWeave则是“基本面驱动”，节奏慢，但逻辑扎实。如果你问哪个更像2025年的NVIDIA，我会选CoreWeave；但如果想博短期暴富，Circle确实诱人——只不过，小心别成了接最后一棒的人。
Between Circle and Coreweave, I’d still lean toward Circle as the potential 10-bagger of 2025. Stablecoins are becoming increasingly important in global finance, and Circle is right at the center of that. The upcoming unlock and volatility could shake things up.
That said, I’m not chasing blindly. Parabolic moves like this rarely end gently, and I’m watching for signs of exhaustion or overly crowded sentiment. It’s tempting to go short, but with this kind of momentum and float setup, mistiming it can be brutal. For now, I’m just managing risk and riding the wave carefully.
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